| February 16, 2015 | |
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There are two big takeaways from our new NBC/Marist polls of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina that we released yesterday. First, with less than a year before the first nominating contests, the Republican presidential field is wide open -- seven different possible GOP candidates get double-digit support in at least one of the states. Second, only two potential candidates (former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker) are in double digits in ALL three states. So call Bush and Walker your very early 2016 Republican frontrunners. Here is the breakdown among potential GOP caucus-goers and primary voters:
- Iowa: Mike Huckabee 17%, Jeb Bush 16%, Scott Walker 15%, Chris Christie 9%, Rand Paul 7%, Marco Rubio 6%, Ben Carson 6%, Rick Santorum 5%, Rick Perry 4%, Ted Cruz 2%, Lindsey Graham 1%.
- New Hampshire: Bush 18%, Walker 15%, Paul 14%, Christie 13%, Huckabee 7%, Carson 7%, Cruz 6%, Rubio 6%, Perry 1%, Graham 1%, Santorum 1%.
- South Carolina: Graham 17%, Bush 15%, Walker 12%, Huckabee 10% and Carson 10%, Paul 7%, Christie 6%, Rubio 4%, Perry 4%, Santorum 3%, Cruz 1%.
Bush and Walker have separated themselves from the rest of the pack. And if you were to award a point system for poll position in each state (5 points for 1st place, 4 points for 2nd, 3 points for 3rd, 4 points for 4th, 1 point for 5th), your top four would be Bush, Walker, Huckabee, and Paul (tied with Graham). That sounds about right.
Hillary (not surprisingly) is crushing the Democratic opposition: On the Democratic side, meanwhile, Hillary Clinton has a substantial lead over her potential Dem rivals in all three states:
- Iowa: Hillary Clinton 68%, Joe Biden 12%, Bernie Sanders 7%, Jim Webb 1%
- New Hampshire: Clinton 69%, Sanders 13%, Biden 8%, Webb 2%
- South Carolina: Clinton 65%, Biden 20%, Sanders 3%, Webb 2%, Martin O'Malley 2%.
Note: Our polls did not include Elizabeth Warren in these trial heats because she continues to insist -- in both the present and future tenses -- that she won't be running for president in 2016. All of the possible candidates that the polls measured either have formed committees to explore a run, have begun to hire staff, or at least have left open the possibility of a White House bid.
Hillary is ahead in the general, but an important reminder here: In hypothetical general-election match-ups among registered voters, Clinton leads both Bush and Walker in the battlegrounds of Iowa and New Hampshire. In Iowa, Clinton holds an eight-point advantage over Bush, 48%-40%, and an 11-point edge over Walker, 49%-38%. In New Hampshire, Clinton is up by six points over Bush (48%-42%) and seven points over Walker (49% to 42%). But here's an important reminder about this 2016 polling: It's still VERY early. Indeed, Rudy Giuliani was ahead of Clinton by five points (47%-42%) in our national March 2007 NBC/WSJ poll, and the former New York City mayor led Obama by six points (45%-39%). Also, while Clinton is ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire, President Barack Obama isn't much of an asset for her in these two states, with his job-approval rating at 43% in both.
Looking at the issues: What's acceptable and what isn't: In addition, our NBC/Marist polls tested seven key issues -- 1) supporting Common Core, 2) supporting a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, 3) wanting to repeal the federal health-care law, 4) believing that climate change is man-made, 5) opposing gay marriage, 6) favoring raising taxes on the wealthy and 7) wanting to send more U.S. troops to combat ISIS -- to see which were the most acceptable and unacceptable to voters in these three states. A few of the findings here: In both Iowa and New Hampshire, supporting a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants is seen as a bigger negative among GOP voters than supporting Common Core. Among ALL registered voters in all three states, the most UNACCEPTABLE issue stance is opposing gay marriage. The most ACCEPTABLE among all registered voters and Democrats: a candidate who wants to raise taxes on the wealthy. The most UNACCEPTABLE among Republicans: believing climate change is man-made (in Iowa and South Carolina) and raising taxes on the wealthy (New Hampshire).
Republicans are divided in DHS funding spat: In our experience, there's a simple rule to follow to make sense of any shutdown showdown: The side that's divided usually loses. And Republicans are the ones who are divided in the battle over funding the Department of Homeland Security -- over whether or not to include riders overturning Obama's executive actions on immigration. Here was House Speaker John Boehner yesterday on Fox:
WALLACE: And what if the Department of Homeland Security funding runs out?
BOEHNER: Well, then, Senate Democrats should to be blame. Very simply.
WALLACE: And you're prepared to let that happen?
BOEHNER: Certainly. The House has acted. We've done our job.
On the other hand, here was Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) on "Meet the Press" yesterday: I think it would be terrible [to use DHS funding to protest Obama's immigration actions]. The American people didn't give us the majority to have a fight between House and Senate Republicans. They want things done. We cannot cut funding for the Department of Homeland Security. We need to sit down and work this thing out. And there's ways we can address what the president did was unconstitutional. But it's not through shutting down the Department of Homeland Security. It's too serious." Playing politics with security is always problematic. But it's doubly problematic when your party is divided.
Boehner: I didn't want the White House to interfere with Netanyahu's speech: Also on Fox yesterday, Boehner was asked why he and his office instructed Israel's U.S. ambassador not to inform the Obama White House about Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's March speech. Boehner's answer: He didn't want the Commander-in-Chief to interfere. "Because I wanted to make sure that there was no interference," he said. "There's no secret here in Washington about the animosity that this White House has for Prime Minister Netanyahu. And I frankly didn't want them getting in the way and quashing what I thought was a real opportunity."
Obamacare enrollment deadline was yesterday: Yesterday was the deadline for Americans to purchase health insurance in 2015 on the online exchanges (both state and federal). Per the last count, about 10 million had selected plans on these marketplaces. NBC's Maggie Fox: "The administration has projected 9.1 million signups by Feb. 15... There's a little extra urgency because this is the first year that Americans will have to worry about health insurance at tax time. The 2010 Affordable Care Act requires that just about everyone have health insurance or else pay a fee in the form of some extra income tax. Federal officials predict that 2 to 4 percent of taxpayers will end up paying a fine because they didn't have health insurance last year, and they don't want people to have to pay again next year because they missed the deadline to sign up this year."
House of Cards meets Portlandia: That's maybe the best way to describe what has happened in Oregon. NBC News: "Longtime Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber says he will resign next Wednesday due to allegations of public corruption involving his fiancée. Kitzhaber has been under fire since allegations began swirling that his fiancée, Cylvia Hayes, improperly used her position as an energy policy adviser for personal gain by working with outside consulting groups. She's also been accused of failing to disclose her income from consulting work... Oregon Secretary of State Kate Brown will become governor once Kitzhaber steps down. She will become the nation's first openly bisexual governor." It's a stunning fall for someone -- Kitzhaber -- who was a legend in Oregon politics.
All of the Presidents' Counties: Finally, given that it's Presidents' Day, don't miss this piece from Dante Chinni: "Out of the 3,100-plus counties in the United States, only 197 are named for former presidents and data around those names and numbers is revealing. As you might expect there are more counties, 31, named for George Washington than for any other president... More than half of the 197 counties, 129 of them, are named after one of the first 10 presidents - Washington, John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams, Andrew Jackson, Martin Van Buren, William Henry Harrison and John Tyler."
PROGRAMMING NOTES:
Monday's "News Nation with Tamron Hall" line-up: Tamron Hall speaks to terror analyst Evan Kohlmann about the threat of lone wolf terrorists in the wake of the attacks in Denmark, legal analyst Lisa Green weighs in on the latest strategy in the Chris Kyle trial, we bring back highlights of SNL's 40th anniversary show, and actor Jeffrey Wright of "The Hunger Games" and "Boardwalk Empire" talks about his efforts to combat Ebola.
Monday's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" line-up: NBC's Andrea Mitchell interviews Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, NBC's Ayman Mohyeldin, Keir Simmons and Charles Hadlock, USA Today's Susan Page and Danish Broadcast Corporation Reporter Peter Keldorff.
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| Senator Bernie Sanders' three-day trip, White House Summit on Countering Violent Extremism, Happy Birthday, George! |
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A majority of Americans support President Barack Obama's proposed authorization to use force against ISIS, the Islamic State group, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll conducted after Obama sent his authorization to Congress. When told that the authorization would last for three years, calls for limited ground operations by the U.S. military, but rules out a longstanding ground force, 54% of respondents say they want their member of Congress to vote for it. This includes a majority of Democrats (60%), Republicans (52%) and independents (51%) -- not much of a partisan split, a rare thing these days. Just 32% of all respondents want their member of Congress to vote against such an authorization. It's a reminder what can happen when Americans get killed: The American public gets galvanized. (By the way, don't overlook the fact that Obama's war authorization name-checks the Americans killed by ISIS. No doubt the Obama administration believes name-checking Americans in the resolution forces a tug at the heart, not just the head. But should a resolution authorizing military force do that?)
Public divided over confidence in Obama's strategy
That said, NBC/Marist poll also finds that confidence in Obama's strategy to combat ISIS is mixed -- with 45% having a "great deal" or a "good amount" of confidence, versus 48% who have little to no confidence. And Americans are divided over whether President Obama will be remembered more for ending a war (40%) or starting a new one (44%). These numbers break along party lines, with 59% of Democrats saying Obama will be remembered for ending a war, compared with 62% of Republicans who say he'll be remembered for starting a new one. So despite the majority support for the authorization itself, it's a VERY fragile majority. Looking under the hood of these numbers, you realize how this support can collapse pretty quickly. And what happens to support for this war if ISIS is defeated but Syria is still unstable? A vacuum that gets filled by more extremists? To prevent the vacuum, will the U.S. conclude the country needs a small but substantial U.S. presence? These are the questions Congress will be asking of the administration when the hearings begin. And it's these unknowns which could easily make passing this authorization more challenging.
More numbers in the poll
- two-thirds of Americans (66%) believe the United States and its allies will be able to defeat ISIS;
- only 40% think Obama's proposed authorization will receive bipartisan support in Congress;
- and a plurality of respondents prefer sending a limited number of U.S. forces to combat ISIS (40%), versus a large number (26%) or no ground forces at all (26%).
The NBC/Marist poll was conducted Feb. 11-12 of 603 adults, and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 4.0 percentage points.
New NBC/Marist polls on Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina this Sunday
And those aren't the only poll numbers we're going to be releasing. On Sunday, we have new NBC/Marist polls measuring the (very early) 2016 race in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. The numbers will be unveiled on "Meet the Press" beginning at 9:00 am ET. Also on "Meet" this Sunday: VA Secretary McDonald and Sens. Jack Reed (D-RI) and John McCain (R-AZ).
An Obamacare checkup
Comparing a year ago and now: This Sunday also marks the 2015 deadline for enrollment in the health-care law. And it's worth giving the law a statistical checkup of sorts, comparing the health-care statistics from a year ago versus now. (THEN: best number available for this time a year ago; NOW: best current number available)
Uninsured rate has declined
THEN: 17.1%
NOW: 12.9%
SOURCE: Gallup
Obamacare enrollment is up (via state and federal exchanges)
THEN: 3.3 million (total that had selected - though not paid for - plans as of Feb. 1, 2014)
NOW: about 10 million (total that so far has selected - though not paid for - plans before Feb. 15 deadline; includes those automatically re-enrolled in plans)
SOURCE: HHS
Note: In 2014, official *paid* enrollment turned out to be 6.7 million (after dental plans were subtracted)
Premiums are mixed - some are higher, some are lower, some are unchanged
Denver, CO
THEN: $250 (2014 monthly premium for a silver plan before tax credit)
NOW: $211 (2015 monthly premium)
Anchorage, AK
THEN: $433 (2014)
NOW: $547 (2015)
Washington, DC
THEN: $242 (2014)
NOW: $242 (2015)
SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation
Medicare's solvency has improved
THEN: Medicare trust fund set to expire in 2026
NOW: Medicare trust fund set to expire in 2030
SOURCE: 2014 Trustees for Medicare and Social Security report
Obamacare still isn't popular
THEN: Just 34% of public said the health-care law is a good idea
NOW: Just 36% of public said the health-care law is a good idea
SOURCE: NBC/WSJ poll
Republicans increasingly doubt Christie can win GOP nomination
The story from NBC's Perry Bacon: "New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is facing growing skepticism from influential Republicans about his likely presidential run, with many in the party privately expressing doubts that he has any chance of winning the GOP nomination and some of Christie's former backers unwilling to say they will support his campaign."
What a story out of Oregon!
Finally, if this story were playing out on the East Coast -- and not in Oregon -- it could very well be leading every national broadcast in the country. It's a scandal involving the sitting Democratic governor and his (very colorful) fiancée; it looks like it could lead to his resignation ASAP; and the person who would replace him if he steps down would become the nation's first bisexual governor. Here's the latest from The Oregonian: "In one of the most surreal days in Oregon political history, the state's top Democratic leaders called for Gov. John Kitzhaber to resign, and the governor vanished from public view. With support of even allies evaporating, the ability of Kitzhaber to remain in office appeared less viable by the hour." And here is the statement from Oregon Secretary of State Kate Brown, who will succeed Kitzhaber if he resigns: "This is clearly a bizarre and unprecedented situation." Indeed.
Click here to sign up for First Read emails. Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone. Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter. Follow us @chucktodd, @mmurraypolitics, @carrienbcnews
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OBAMA AGENDA: Talking cybersecurity
The president will talk to top cyber experts today in Palo Alto even as tensions between Silicon Valley and Washington grow, reports the New York Times.
Our new NBC News/Marist poll shows that 54 percent of Americans want their member of Congress to vote for Obama's proposed authorization to use force against ISIS.
The Associated Press writes that the U.S. has reservations about the new Ukraine cease-fire but that any plans to provide weapons to Ukraine are on hold for right now.
From the New York Times: "The F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, delivered an unusually candid speech on Thursday about the difficult relationship between the police and African-Americans, saying that officers who work in neighborhoods where blacks commit crimes at a high rate develop a cynicism that shades their attitudes about race."
Despite advice from experts, Obama is strongly considering Joe Clancy as the permanent leader of the Secret Service, reports the Washington Post.
CONGRESS: Carter gets confirmed
The Senate approved Ashton Carter as the new head of the Pentagon in a 93 to 5 vote, reports NBC News.
Congress said they demanded an AUMF six months ago, but now few members are enthusiastic about voting on it.
OFF TO THE RACES: What a story out of Oregon!
BIDEN: Joe Biden says he will decide whether to seek the presidency "sometime at the end of the summer."
BUSH: He picked up former Romney aide and New Hampshire guru Rich Killion.
POLITICO reports on how Bush's frontrunner status is making him a target for attacks from GOP rivals.
CLINTON: Hillary Clinton hopes to portray herself as more proactive on foreign policy than Obama, notes the Wall Street Journal.
The Huffington Post: Clinton campaign lawyers are looking into possible restrictions on the fundraising Bill Clinton and Terry McAuliffe will be able to do.
CHRISTIE: Check out Perry Bacon Jr's look at how Republicans are privately wondering if Chris Christie is still a viable presidential contender.
CRUZ: Ted Cruz is throwing cold water on the idea of changing Senate filibuster rules, reports Luke Russert.
PAUL: Rand Paul was fudging a little bit in Iowa when he said - twice - that he has a degree in biology.
He's asking Republicans in Kentucky to help him clear the way to run for re-election to the Senate and for president at the same time.
WALKER: Scott Walker is raking in cash from Wall Street, reports the Wall Street Journal.
And around the country....
OREGON: The Oregonian reports: Gov. Kitzhaber's allies are abandoning him as calls for his resignation loom.
And a report in the Willamette Week alleges that he attempted to destroy thousands of personal emails.
PENNSYLVANIA: The Philly Inquirer on how the DNC's selection fits its mission: "Democrats have carried Pennsylvania every presidential election since 1988, when Republican George H.W. Bush won the state. But it's still a competitive two-party state with close elections, strategists and analysts said."
PROGRAMMING NOTES.
*** Friday's "News Nation with Tamron Hall" line-up: Tamron Hall speaks Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY) regarding ISIS and the AUMF decision on using ground troops to combat the terror organization, Legal analyst Lisa Green regarding the Chris Kyle Trial, Senior Fellow at the Southern Poverty Law Center Mark Potok about the shooting of 3 Muslim students at UNC, Former SNL Cast member Tim Meadows about the 40th anniversary of SNL, and Hip Hop legend Biz Markie about his career and dramatic weight loss.
*** Friday's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" line-up: NBC's Andrea Mitchell interviews State Department Spokesperson Jen Psaki, the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza and Ruth Marcus, MSNBC's Steve Kornacki, "6 Certified" Creator Charlie Ebersol, and John and Diane Foley, the parents of James Foley.
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The 2016 Democratic National Convention will be held in Philadelphia, Democrats announced on Thursday.
The convention will be held the week of July 25, 2016.
DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz said in a statement that a final contract with the city was signed Thursday morning.
On a conference call with reporters, Wasserman Schultz added that the City of Brotherly Love won its bid to host the 2016 Democratic National Convention on three criteria: logistics, security and resources.
And she offered a specific shoutout to walkability between the Wells Fargo Center and local hotels.
"Philadelphia's strength in particular was the proximity of their arena and venue to the hotel rooms," she said.
"The fact that there are 18500 hotel rooms within a 15 minute walk of the arena, the Wells Fargo arena, the fact that you would have an opportunity for delegates to be coming back and forth and interacting very cohesively in Philadelphia was a big strength of theirs," she said.
Democrats had previously narrowed their choices for the convention site to Philadelphia, New York and Columbus, Ohio.
The Republican National Convention will be held the week of July 18 in Cleveland, Ohio.
- Carrie Dann
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