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| Welcome to Wonkbook, Wonkblog's morning policy news primer byMax Ehrenfreund (@MaxEhrenfreud). Send comments, criticism or ideas to Wonkbook at Washpost dot com. To read more by the Wonkblog team, click here. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook. |
| Keystone XL bill passes House |
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Policymakers have debated the merits of the Keystone XL pipeline for six years now, despite the fact that the project remains largely symbolic with limited effects on the economy or the environment.
The Environmental Protection Agency recently suggestedthat the pipeline had taken on new practical significance. As oil prices decline, the agency argued, producers in Alberta's tar sands would become more dependent on the pipeline to be able to profitably transport bitumen to refineries. With the finished product selling for less on the market, the additional cost of transporting the raw material by train instead could become prohibitive.
Yet Michael Levi, a scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations, writes that the reality might be more complicated. For one thing, Canadian authorities might take steps to subsidize tar sands operations if oil prices continue to slide. For another, inexpensive oil is discouraging all kinds of extraction all over the world. If the pipeline isn't built, drilling firms in the United States -- as just one example -- might increase production again to make up for some of the difference.
Political significance may be the only kind Keystone XL has, but symbolism is important, too. The years of debate have mobilized hundreds of thousands of environmental activists, and the movement has a greater chance of influencing the presidential debate next year than it would have without the pipeline as a rallying point.
What's in Wonkbook: 1) House passes pipeline bill 2) Opinions on the Islamic State 3) The Swedish central bank has set negative interest rates, and more
The House has passed the Keystone XL bill. "On a 270-152 vote that fell mostly along party lines, the House approved the bill, which has already cleared the Senate. The measure will now head to Obama's desk. The president has vowed to veto the measure." Sean Sullivan in The Washington Post.
So now the ball is in President Obama's court. "The only mystery left is when and how Obama will announce the veto. It could be a tricky situation for the president, who might not want to be overly confrontational with Democrats and labor groups that back constructing the pipeline." Cristina Marcos and Timothy Cama in The Hill.
For the U.S. economy, at least, the pipeline is less relevant than ever. "Falling oil prices and an improving job market conspire to weaken any practical or political payoffs. ... 'This allegedly important policy issue has become almost nothing but politics, save for those who build and operate it, on both sides,' said Burdett Loomis, a political science professor at the University of Kansas who tracks energy issues. 'Its policy significance comes close to nil, especially in our current oil environment.'" Jim Snyder and Billy House for Bloomberg.
Obama's resolution encourages unlimited war. "Not only does his proposal fail to limit the battlefield to Iraq and Syria, but it also authorizes him to take the fight beyond the Islamic State to battle any 'associated persons or forces,' including 'any closely related successor entity.' If Congress goes along, the next administration will claim that lawmakers have implicitly accepted the more expansive use of the formula as it was developed under the 2001 act. The White House will then use it to start new wars by asserting ever-more-remote 'associations' between new terrorist groups and the old Al Qaeda. ... People who take the Constitution seriously, on both sides of the aisle, must not allow this to happen." Bruce Ackerman in The New York Times.
It would not do enough to defeat the Islamic State. "Instead of inviting broad political support for defeating ISIS, the language would codify the President’s war-fighting ambivalence. The draft is especially notable for its disconnect between military ends and means. ... As for ground troops, Mr. Obama is asking Congress to endorse a military strategy that his own generals have said may be deficient." The Wall Street Journal.
And what is the long-term strategy? "One of the recurring patterns in U.S. foreign policy is that our country’s leaders have repeatedly set daunting, ambitious goals, set out resolutely to achieve them—and then been caught flat-footed and befuddled when they succeeded in achieving them. In many respects, in fact, this is the story of Iraq for the past 25 years. ... Today, Congress should push the executive branch to spell out its thinking not only about 'ending' the Islamic State in Iraq, but building a sustainable long-term engagement with Iraq. What should an enduring American posture in and/or around Iraq look like, to ensure the preservation of peace?"Vance Serchuk and Richard Fontaine at Politico.
Sweden's central bank sets negative interest rates for the first time and begins quantitative easing. "The Riksbank, the world’s oldest central bank, lowered its benchmark rate to minus 0.1% from zero and said it would buy government bonds worth 10 billion Swedish kronor ($1.2 billion). The repo rate had stood at zero since October. ... In cutting rates, Sweden joins the likes of the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank who have eased policy recently in an attempt to push inflation closer to target." Charles Duxbury and Chiara Albanese in The Wall Street Journal.
What caused the decline in crime? "Our team of economic and criminal justice researchers spent the last 20 months testing fourteen popular theories for the crime decline. We delved deep into over 30 years of data collected from all 50 states and the 50 largest cities. The results are sharply etched: we do not know with precision what caused the crime decline, but the growth in incarceration played only a minor role, and now has a negligible impact." Inimai M. Chettiar in The Atlantic.
The Federal Election Commission discussed dark money in an unprecedented public meeting. "The FEC, a panel with three Democrats and three Republicans, has long been stuck on party lines on many policy issues. However, the hearing itself was a consequence of both Republican and Democratic members of the panel agreeing to hear from the public about how – or even whether – to change campaign finance regulations." Megan R. Wilson in The Hill.
Bank of America helped its clients avoid taxes. "Bank of America Corp. for years used its government-backed U.S. banking subsidiary to finance billions of dollars in controversial trades that helped hedge funds and other clients avoid taxes, according to internal documents and people familiar with the matter. The bank last year quietly started phasing out the practice of using funds from its U.S. banking unit to finance transactions by its European investment-banking arm that, among other things, helped hedge funds avoid taxes on stock dividends, according to the documents and people. The practice has ended, according to a bank spokesman." Jenny Strasburg in The Wall Street Journal.
Hillary Clinton might wait until July to announce a presidential candidacy, but some argue that's too late."Some allies and prominent Democrats say she needs to jump in sooner than that and begin raising campaign funds and organizing in states with early contests, even if the payoff means more in the general election than the primaries. In Iowa, which holds the nation’s first presidential nominating contest, local Democratic leaders caution that Mrs. Clinton risks a backlash if she postpones her announcement too long." Peter Nicholas in The Wall Street Journal.
Engineers launched a robotic observatory into deep space to keep a vigil for approaching solar storms. "In about 110 days, the observatory, abbreviated as Dscovr and pronounced 'discover,' is to reach a point where the gravitational pull of the Earth and that of the sun cancel each other out and the spacecraft can easily hold its position, almost a million miles from the day side of Earth. From that location, Dscovr will be able to give 15 to 60 minutes’ warning if a wave of energetic solar particles known as a coronal mass ejection is about to slam into Earth." Kenneth Chang in The New York Times.
Upcoming event: Washington Post Live presents “Innovation Through Collaboration,” February 12th. Maria Contreras-Sweet, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, members of Congress and thought leaders will discuss the most successful public-private partnership models and why this is the way of the future. Learn more about the event and register to attend.
The Environmental Protection Agency recently suggestedthat the pipeline had taken on new practical significance. As oil prices decline, the agency argued, producers in Alberta's tar sands would become more dependent on the pipeline to be able to profitably transport bitumen to refineries. With the finished product selling for less on the market, the additional cost of transporting the raw material by train instead could become prohibitive.
Yet Michael Levi, a scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations, writes that the reality might be more complicated. For one thing, Canadian authorities might take steps to subsidize tar sands operations if oil prices continue to slide. For another, inexpensive oil is discouraging all kinds of extraction all over the world. If the pipeline isn't built, drilling firms in the United States -- as just one example -- might increase production again to make up for some of the difference.
Political significance may be the only kind Keystone XL has, but symbolism is important, too. The years of debate have mobilized hundreds of thousands of environmental activists, and the movement has a greater chance of influencing the presidential debate next year than it would have without the pipeline as a rallying point.
What's in Wonkbook: 1) House passes pipeline bill 2) Opinions on the Islamic State 3) The Swedish central bank has set negative interest rates, and more
1. Top story: Keystone bill passes House
So now the ball is in President Obama's court. "The only mystery left is when and how Obama will announce the veto. It could be a tricky situation for the president, who might not want to be overly confrontational with Democrats and labor groups that back constructing the pipeline." Cristina Marcos and Timothy Cama in The Hill.
For the U.S. economy, at least, the pipeline is less relevant than ever. "Falling oil prices and an improving job market conspire to weaken any practical or political payoffs. ... 'This allegedly important policy issue has become almost nothing but politics, save for those who build and operate it, on both sides,' said Burdett Loomis, a political science professor at the University of Kansas who tracks energy issues. 'Its policy significance comes close to nil, especially in our current oil environment.'" Jim Snyder and Billy House for Bloomberg.
2. Top opinions
It would not do enough to defeat the Islamic State. "Instead of inviting broad political support for defeating ISIS, the language would codify the President’s war-fighting ambivalence. The draft is especially notable for its disconnect between military ends and means. ... As for ground troops, Mr. Obama is asking Congress to endorse a military strategy that his own generals have said may be deficient." The Wall Street Journal.
And what is the long-term strategy? "One of the recurring patterns in U.S. foreign policy is that our country’s leaders have repeatedly set daunting, ambitious goals, set out resolutely to achieve them—and then been caught flat-footed and befuddled when they succeeded in achieving them. In many respects, in fact, this is the story of Iraq for the past 25 years. ... Today, Congress should push the executive branch to spell out its thinking not only about 'ending' the Islamic State in Iraq, but building a sustainable long-term engagement with Iraq. What should an enduring American posture in and/or around Iraq look like, to ensure the preservation of peace?"Vance Serchuk and Richard Fontaine at Politico.
3. In case you missed it
What caused the decline in crime? "Our team of economic and criminal justice researchers spent the last 20 months testing fourteen popular theories for the crime decline. We delved deep into over 30 years of data collected from all 50 states and the 50 largest cities. The results are sharply etched: we do not know with precision what caused the crime decline, but the growth in incarceration played only a minor role, and now has a negligible impact." Inimai M. Chettiar in The Atlantic.
The Federal Election Commission discussed dark money in an unprecedented public meeting. "The FEC, a panel with three Democrats and three Republicans, has long been stuck on party lines on many policy issues. However, the hearing itself was a consequence of both Republican and Democratic members of the panel agreeing to hear from the public about how – or even whether – to change campaign finance regulations." Megan R. Wilson in The Hill.
Bank of America helped its clients avoid taxes. "Bank of America Corp. for years used its government-backed U.S. banking subsidiary to finance billions of dollars in controversial trades that helped hedge funds and other clients avoid taxes, according to internal documents and people familiar with the matter. The bank last year quietly started phasing out the practice of using funds from its U.S. banking unit to finance transactions by its European investment-banking arm that, among other things, helped hedge funds avoid taxes on stock dividends, according to the documents and people. The practice has ended, according to a bank spokesman." Jenny Strasburg in The Wall Street Journal.
Hillary Clinton might wait until July to announce a presidential candidacy, but some argue that's too late."Some allies and prominent Democrats say she needs to jump in sooner than that and begin raising campaign funds and organizing in states with early contests, even if the payoff means more in the general election than the primaries. In Iowa, which holds the nation’s first presidential nominating contest, local Democratic leaders caution that Mrs. Clinton risks a backlash if she postpones her announcement too long." Peter Nicholas in The Wall Street Journal.
Engineers launched a robotic observatory into deep space to keep a vigil for approaching solar storms. "In about 110 days, the observatory, abbreviated as Dscovr and pronounced 'discover,' is to reach a point where the gravitational pull of the Earth and that of the sun cancel each other out and the spacecraft can easily hold its position, almost a million miles from the day side of Earth. From that location, Dscovr will be able to give 15 to 60 minutes’ warning if a wave of energetic solar particles known as a coronal mass ejection is about to slam into Earth." Kenneth Chang in The New York Times.
Upcoming event: Washington Post Live presents “Innovation Through Collaboration,” February 12th. Maria Contreras-Sweet, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, members of Congress and thought leaders will discuss the most successful public-private partnership models and why this is the way of the future. Learn more about the event and register to attend.
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