Transportation Energy System Analysis News: TRB, H2 and Natural Gas Vehicles, and QAR

Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy

Transportation Energy Systems Analysis News

Winter 2015 Welcome to the first issue of the Transportation Energy Systems Analysis News! This quarterly email will help keep you up-to-date on the latest reports, software updates, events, and other announcements in the transportation analytical community, particularly those supported by the Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO). For more information about the DOE's analysis work, see the Data and Results page on the Vehicle Technologies Office's website. New Report on Hydrogen Fuel Cell and Natural Gas Vehicles Sandia National Laboratories, supported by the Vehicle Technologies and Fuel Cell Technologies Offices, recently released a workshop report on “Transitioning the Transportation Sector: Exploring the Intersection of Hydrogen Fuel Cell and Natural Gas Vehicles.” Participants in the September 2014 workshop identified several areas where companies can better capitalize on synergies between the two fuels, particularly co-locating infrastructure. Read the news item and the paper on the VTO website. VTO Research Presented at TRB The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies held its annual meeting on January 12-15 in Washington, D.C. The meeting had more than 5,000 presentations in nearly 750 sessions and workshops. Researchers, analysts, and program staff supported by the Vehicle Technologies Office presented on a variety of topics. The papers listed below are currently available on the TRB website. “Quantifying the Uncertainty of Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) Market Penetration” (Changzheng Liu and Zhenhong Lin). By integrating the Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) model and Palisade’s @Risk software, this study analyzes the uncertainty of PEV market penetration using Monte Carlo simulation. It identifies top factors contributing to market share variability, including price sensitivities, energy cost, costs related to range limitation, and charging availability. “Vehicle Consumer Preference Heterogeneity: Random Coefficient Logit Approach with 2000 – 2013 Sales Data” (Sangsoo Park, Changzheng Liu, and Zhenhong Lin). Using U.S. sales data of new vehicles from 2000 to 2013, this paper estimates a random coefficient logit model. The paper finds a statistically significant level of heterogeneity in consumer preferences for vehicle price and power. “The Outlook for U.S. Oil Dependence 2014: Is Energy Independence in Sight?” (David L. Greene and Changzheng Liu). This paper reassesses the current and future importance of U.S. oil dependence in light of recent developments. It finds that unless U.S. oil resources are much larger than estimated by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the costs of oil dependence are likely to increase in constant dollars but decrease relative to U.S. gross domestic product. “Socially Optimal All-Electric Driving Range of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles” (Eleftheria Kontou, Yafeng Yin, and Zhenhong Lin). This study attempts to optimize PHEV electric range by considering both the private cost of using a PHEV and the environmental costs associated with greenhouse gases. “Potential to Electrify Miles with Different Plug-in Vehicle Innovation Paths.” (Danilo Santini and Yan Zhou). This paper analyzes a scenario where plug-in hybrid electric vehicles with up to 50 miles of range share the marketplace with mass market all-electric vehicles such as the Nissan Leaf and niche market performance all-electric vehicles such as Teslas. It finds that the share of miles electrified may be greater than if all-electric vehicles with 70 miles of range are promoted (under CALEV regulation) instead of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles with 50 miles of range. In addition to papers, staff and stakeholders in VTO’s Clean Cities deployment program also presented on the panel “Best Practices for Deploying Corridor-Based Alternative Fuel Infrastructure”.   VTO Quarterly Analysis Review The VTO Quarterly Analysis Review, known colloquially as the “QAR,” surveys both work supported by the VTO Analysis Program within the broader context of energy and automotive U.S. and global markets as well as other analytical studies. The QAR comprises an hour-long glimpse at the transportation energy ecosystem within which VTO operates. VTO Analysis staff members present and distribute the QAR to stakeholders each quarter. While the QAR is primarily for informational purposes, feedback and discussion are welcome. Read the February 2014 QAR on the VTO website.   Featured Fact of the Week Each week, the Vehicle Technologies Office posts a new transportation fact with a graph or table and supporting data. See the most recent and past Facts of the Week. Excess Supply is the Most Recent Event to Affect Crude Oil Prices Crude oil prices have been extremely volatile over the past few decades. World events can disrupt the flow of oil to the market or cause uncertainty about future supply or demand for oil, leading to volatility in prices. View the supporting data for this Fact of the Week.   Analysis Resources The Vehicle Technologies Office supports a variety of analysis resources to researchers and policymakers. The Transportation Energy Data Book compiles information on petroleum consumption, vehicle use, environmental impacts, household vehicle characteristics, and fleet characteristics. The Vehicle Technologies Market Report describes major trends in light and heavy-duty markets. FuelEconomy.gov and the Alternative Fuels Data Center hosts graphs, maps, and downloadable data sets on vehicle fuel economy, alternative fuel use, and alternative fuel vehicles and stations.