| | January 29, 2015 | |
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Who does this remind you of -- a successful former governor who's viewed as the "moderate" in the field, who comes from a famous wealthy family, who gets plenty of Beltway buzz, who is advised by a former McCain strategist, and who is viewed by Democrats (probably correctly) as the GOP's strongest general-election candidate? You're probably thinking of Jeb Bush. But we also could be talking about Jon Huntsman circa 2011. And that is a potentially big danger for Bush, as he looks certain to make a White House run in 2016. Yes, Bush will raise more money than Huntsman did, and Bush and his family have tighter connections to the GOP establishment than the former Utah governor ever did. But two Huntsman pitfalls from the last presidential race should worry Jeb's team. The first: Huntsman was too close to President Obama -- having served as his ambassador to China. And he never backed down from that association. While Bush hasn't worked for Obama, he is close in association on the hot-button issues of immigration reform and Common Core, and he says he won't back down. The second: Huntsman began his campaign with a general-election message, not one aimed at the hearts of minds of GOP primary voters. And ditto Bush when he said a successful candidate has to be willing to lose the primary to win the general election.
It's going to be one or the other
None of this is to say that Bush WON'T be the Republican Party's presidential nominee in 2016, or even president come Jan. 2017. It's more than possible that he could pull off what his brother did 16 years ago. But if we're all searching for a reason, a year from now, why Jeb could be struggling in a deep and competitive Republican presidential field, this will be the reason. Is Jeb's path more like his brother's in 2000? Or Huntsman's in 2012? We have a year to go to find out.
Scott Walker: True contender or the next Tim Pawlenty?
Here's another thought exercise via NBC's Perry Bacon: Who does this sound like -- two-term governor from a traditionally Democratic Midwestern state, openly devout and socially conservative enough, a regular guy? Well, that certainly describes Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who has generated plenty of 2016 buzz over the last few days. But as Bacon reminds us, those attributes also could have described Tim Pawlenty this time four years ago. In an interview, Pawlenty says that Walker appears to be a stronger candidate than he was. "Because of his epic battles with the unions and other people in Wisconsin, he became a national figure with a national platform and a national fundraising base, which puts him in a stronger position than I was." More Pawlenty: "It doesn't mean you can be boring, but the experience and qualifications, those factors are going to be weighed more heavily this time," Pawlenty said. He added, "you do have to cross a threshold of being entertaining without being cartoonish ... And Scott Walker clearly has the ability to inspire."
Is Hillary really delaying her campaign? Or just following (pretty much) the same timetable used by Obama and Romney in 2011?
Politico writes that Hillary Clinton "is strongly considering delaying the formal launch of her presidential campaign until July, three months later than originally planned." More: "One option being considered would be to announce an exploratory committee earlier - perhaps in April, at the beginning of a new fundraising quarter, in the timeframe when insiders originally expected her to launch her campaign. Then the actual kickoff would be in July." Folks, a little perspective here: In the 2012 cycle, both Obama and Romney set up their campaign committees ($$$) in April '11 -- and they didn't start campaigning/announcing until later (Romney formally launched his campaign in June 2011; Obama hit the re-election trail in May 2012). And whenever Clinton starts actually campaigning, don't miss Perry Bacon's piece -- quoting Democratic and progressive leaders -- on HOW she should actually run. Some examples: Don't just run on being the first female president; also try to seize the future.... Focus on family leave... Don't dwell on her husband's presidency.
Romney doesn't take his foot off the presidential-speculation gas
Speaking of Romney, he gave a speech last night at Mississippi State University, where he didn't take his foot off the presidential-speculation gas. He attacked President Obama on foreign policy. "The President's dismissal of real global threats in his State of the Union address was naive at best and deceptive at worst." Ditto Hillary Clinton. "Secretary of State Hillary Clinton cluelessly pressed a reset button for Russia, which smiled and then invaded Ukraine, a sovereign nation." And he continued to pitch his lines emphasizing income inequality and poverty -- a significant departure from his '12 run. "Short term, our economy is looking up. But it is a lot better for the few, and pretty darn discouraging for the many." Keep this in mind: Romney has to be considered a 2016 candidate until he's not.
Cruz lays down '16 marker on Loretta Lynch's nomination
Well, Ted Cruz has certainly laid down the GOP 2016 marker on Loretta Lynch's nomination to be Obama's next attorney general. "[S]he has now explicitly embraced the president's unconstitutional action [on immigration], has pledged to help him implement that unconstitutional action and indeed ... she refused to delineate any limits whatsoever on the president's authority," Cruz said, per Roll Call. "She could not give any instance of a limit on the president's authority. That is profoundly dangerous to have an attorney general, who by her own testimony is prepared to rubber stamp unconstitutional conduct by the president." What say you, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul? Indeed, while Lynch's confirmation appears to be a sure thing, it's also going to serve as a litmus test for other Senate Republicans. Remember, even Barack Obama voted against John Roberts' confirmation to the Supreme Court. Just think of the Dem primary attacks on him if he HAD VOTED for him. Of course, President Obama has reportedly regretted his no-vote on Roberts, not because he is pro-Roberts but because now that he is president, he wants qualifications to matter more than ideology.
Keeping up with the Joneses (or Kochs)
Here's NBC's Leigh Ann Caldwell with Democrats admitting they can't keep up with nearly $900 million the Koch Brothers' groups are planning to spend in the '16 cycle. "We're never going to match that dollar for dollar," said Ben Ray, spokesperson for American Bridge, a Democratic opposition research group, referring to the Democratic fundraising apparatus... Democratic aides say the effort is going to have to be "all hands on deck." They will follow how the money is being spent and strategically place every Democratic dollar to counter. In addition, grassroots support - a large number of small dollar donors - will continue to play heavily into the Democrats' strategy, and that includes capitalizing on the Koch news. The DNC released an email to their supporters Wednesday evening, urging their supporters to mobilize and engage in response to the Koch news." Our take: While Democrats will likely play the underdog here, do realize that between the outside groups and the impressive conventional fundraising machine Obama put together in 2012, Democrats basically kept pace. And the Clinton's don't exactly have a history of underperforming on the money front. This feels more like crocodile tears from the Dems. Maybe they won't find a singular organization like Koch, but they have plenty of millionaires
Listing the '16 campaign committees and PACs
Finally, here is our breakdown of all of the 2016 presidential committees, PACs, and 527s that have been set up. So far, there's been just one presidential committee (Jim Webb's). And look who DOESN'T have a PAC -- Hillary and Biden.
Actual presidential campaign committees (1)
GOP Leadership PACs/527s (12)
Dem Leadership PACs/527s (2)
None so far (2)
- Hillary Clinton
- Joe Biden
(By the way, you'll be forgiven if some of these PAC names/adjectives sound like certain TV ad campaigns for drugs to make folks feel younger or more vigorous.)
Click here to sign up for First Read emails. Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone. Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter. Follow us @chucktodd, @mmurraypolitics, @carrienbcnews
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OBAMA AGENDA: Unintended consequence of Netanyahu's speech
The New York Times on the GOP's Netanyahu invite: "The decision by the Israeli prime minister to accept an unusual invitation from House Republicans to address a joint meeting of Congress has had the unintended effect of helping the president rally Democrats as his administration negotiates a delicate nuclear deal with Iran." MORE: "The outrage the episode has incited within President Obama's inner circle became clear in unusually sharp criticism by a senior administration official who said that the Israeli ambassador, Ron Dermer, who helped orchestrate the invitation, had repeatedly placed Mr. Netanyahu's political fortunes above the relationship between Israel and the United States."
Are Dermer's days numbered? More New York Times: Former U.S. ambassador to Israel Daniel Kurtzer "said while it was unlikely the Obama administration would take the extraordinary step of declaring Mr. Dermer 'persona non grata' - the official method for a foreign diplomat to be ousted from a country - it could request that Mr. Dermer by reprimanded or removed. 'He has soiled his pad; who's he going to work with?' Mr. Kurtzer said."
The big picture on income inequality, from the Wall Street Journal: "The emergence of a two-tiered U.S. economy, with wealthy households advancing while middle- and lower-income Americans struggle, is reshaping markets for everything from housing to clothing to groceries to beer."
From the AP: "Obama's budget proposal to Congress will "fully reverse" the so-called sequestration cuts on the domestic side, while boosting national security programs by an equal amount, the White House said, as Obama prepared to meet with House Democrats at their annual retreat in Philadelphia. The budget will be "fully paid for with cuts to inefficient spending programs and closing tax loopholes," but taxpayers will have to wait until the budget is formally released Monday to find out exactly how."
Republicans are split about Obama's proposals on military spending, reports the Wall Street Journal.
CONGRESS: Senate returns to Keystone
The Senate will give advancing the Keystone XL pipeline measure another try today after a vote earlier this week failed.
The one major place Loretta Lynch broke with the president during her confirmation hearing Wednesday: pot.
The Washington Post looks at whether Democrats can retake the House anytime soon.
OFF TO THE RACES: The Jeb-vs-Mitt fight over 32 neighborhoods in America
Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney aren't fighting over just a few states or even counties. When it comes to donors, they're fighting over 32 *neighborhoods* in America. Dante Chinni reports.
Chelsea Clinton and her husband Marc will appear next to Ann and Mitt Romney Friday at a New York City luncheon for the Ann Romney Center for Neurologic Diseases, reports the New York Times.
The New Hampshire GOP is planning a "leadership summit" for presidential candidates April 17-18.
CLINTON: Here's POLITICO with a look at Clinton's 2016 timing: "Hillary Clinton, expecting no major challenge for the Democratic nomination, is strongly considering delaying the formal launch of her presidential campaign until July, three months later than originally planned, top Democrats tell POLITICO. The delay from the original April target will give her more time to develop her message, policy and organization, without the chaos and spotlight of a public campaign."
Our own Perry Bacon Jr. looks at Democrats' doubts about Clinton's style and substance. And he asks top strategists and thinkers in the party how Hillary Clinton should run for president.
HUCKABEE: A feud with Glenn Beck may be hurting him with the FOX News crowd,reports the Washington Examiner. And there's this quote from the former gov, sure to attract some attention: ""A lot of people make fun of how beautiful the women are at Fox, and yes: Compare them to any network, and ours are easier on the eyes than anybody else's," Huckabee said, mostly dodging the question. "However, they're not there just because they're attractive."
PALIN: Conservatives are over her, writes the Washington Post. (Folks, that's more than six years after her VP nomination and 5 ½ years after she resigned from being Alaska governor.)
PERRY: Rick Perry says he's "moving right along" with his 2016 plans despite a judge's refusal to dismiss his indictment. He cited a "May/June timetable" for an announcement.
ROMNEY: Asked what he might do differently for a 2016 run, Mitt Romney last nightsaid: "That's another question I won't answer."
And he stepped up his attacks on possible rival Hillary Clinton.
WALKER: As Walker starts his run, will be he able to turn his obvious assets into a strong presidential run? Or is he the next Tim Pawlenty? Perry Bacon Jr. asksPawlenty himself.
He's proposing a $300 million cut to the University of Wisconsin system, and the rhetoric over the plan is getting heated.
And around the country...
Roll Call writes: "The 2016 cycle could feature the fewest open Senate seats in at least a decade."
OHIO: Thinking about a '16 Senate run? Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan says he's "changed his thinking" on abortion. "There are many factors involved when a woman decides to end a pregnancy, and over the past 14 years in political office, I have gained a deeper understanding of the complexities and emotions that accompany the difficult decisions that women and families make when confronted with these situations."
PROGRAMMING NOTES.
*** Thursday's "News Nation with Tamron Hall" line-up: Tamron Hall speaks with Health care attorney Nick about the measles outbreak, former CIA agent Kevin Strouse about the latest on ISIS, and the new NFL Domestic Violence PSA with Domestic abuse survivor and author: Leslie Morgan Steiner.
*** Thursday's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" line-up: NBC's Andrea Mitchell interviews Ambassador Nicholas Burns, MSNBC Terror Analyst Evan Kohmann, NBC's Ayman Mohyeldin, Tom Costello, Ron Mott, Luke Russert and Erica Hill and the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza and Ruth Marcus.
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Potential presidential candidate Mitt Romney will take explicit aim at possible rival Hillary Clinton on both economic and foreign policy issues in an address at Mississippi State University Wednesday night, according to excerpts from his prepared remarks.
And he appears ready to outline his case for another likely run for the president, declaring that "strong American leadership is desperately needed for the world, and for America."
"Secretary of State Hillary Clinton cluelessly pressed a reset button for Russia, which smiled and then invaded Ukraine, a sovereign nation," he will say, according to text provided to NBC News by aides. "The Middle East and much of North Africa is in chaos. China grows more assertive and builds a navy that will be larger than ours in five years. We shrink our nuclear capabilities as Russia upgrades theirs."
Romney, who lost the general election to President Barack Obama in 2012, will also paint the Republican Party as better equipped than Clinton's Democrats to address issues of income inequality and poverty.
"How can Secretary Clinton provide opportunity for all if she doesn't know where jobs come from in the first place?" he'll add.
The former Massachusetts governor, a onetime CEO with a highly-publicized net worth in the $250 million range, was painted by his Democratic foes in 2012 as out of touch with the problems of regular Americans.
His remarks at Mississippi State University appear squarely aimed at challenging that label - and at blunting the Obama administration's claims that the economic recovery has been successful.
"Short term, our economy is looking up," he'll say. "But it is a lot better for the few, and pretty darn discouraging for the many. Incomes haven't gone up in decades."
- Kelly O'Donnell and Carrie Dann
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A Republican governor twice elected in a traditionally Democratic, Midwestern state. A record of achieving conservative goals and battling with his state's liberals. Openly devout and socially conservative enough for the evangelicals in the GOP, but not so religious to make non-churchgoing Republicans uncomfortable. A regular guy persona, in part because he didn't grow up rich like Mitt Romney or one of the Bushes.
Those are the characteristics that have some Republicans excited about the potential candidacy of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who Tuesday formed a political committee called "Our American Revival" in the latest step towards his likely presidential run.
But those attributes also described former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty when he started campaigning for president four years ago. And Pawlenty's campaign went nowhere: he dropped out in 2011, months before the primaries started, after finishing third in an Iowa straw poll. As Walker starts his run, will be he able to turn his obvious assets into a strong presidential run? Or is he the next Tim Pawlenty?
Pawlenty, now the president of the D.C.-based Financial Services Roundtable, said in an interview that Walker has some advantages that Pawlenty himself did not four years ago.
"Because of his epic battles with the unions and other people in Wisconsin, he became a national figure with a national platform and a national fundraising base, which puts him in a stronger position than I was," Pawlenty said.
"Each of the candidates had their month in the sun, we flamed out too early to have our own month."
Walker, Pawlenty added, has had another advantage. Voters, particularly Republicans, will reward the management experience governors have more than in past campaigns, after some of the execution mistakes of President Obama's tenure, such as the botched roll-out of the Obamacare website.
"It doesn't mean you can be boring, but the experience and qualifications, those factors are going to be weighed more heavily this time," Pawlenty said. He added, "you do have to cross a threshold of being entertaining without being cartoonish ... And Scott Walker clearly has the ability to inspire."
Vin Weber, a former Minnesota GOP congressman who was a top adviser to Pawlenty before he dropped out of the 2012 race, acknowledges some similarities between Walker and Pawlenty's situations.
"Everybody has been talking for a long time about Chris Christie being too New Jersey," said Weber. "There's a Midwestern thing that sometimes doesn't translate in the rest of the country, and Scott Walker has to worry about that."
In some ways, Walker is being stereotyped by the political press and others, as he and Pawlenty are much different politicians.
Pawlenty was something of a national figure before his 2012 campaign, because John McCain had considered Pawlenty for vice president in 2008 before opting for Sarah Palin. But Walker's signing of a bill in 2011 that essentially eliminated the collective bargaining rights of state employees in Wisconsin, infuriating liberals across the country, turned him into a conservative hero.
And conservatives were impressed by Walker's political skills. The Wisconsin governor beat back a Democratic effort to recall him in 2012 and then won reelection in November despite millions of dollars spent by labor unions to defeat him.
"If you have spent any time listening to this program in the last two years, you know that I believe Scott Walker is the blueprint for the Republican Party if they are serious about beating the left. Scott Walker has shown how to do it," Rush Limbaugh said on his radio program on Monday, after Walker's speech at the "Iowa Freedom Summit"on Saturday won the governor praise from fellow Republicans.
But Walker has a similar challenge to Pawlenty: finding a core group of supporters within the GOP. In his early moves, Walker has campaigned as a kind of fusion candidate, emphasizing both his conservative credentials to the party's right wing but also his electability to GOP moderates.
"I won the race for governor three times in the last four years," Walker said in Iowa. "Three times, mind you, in a state that hasn't gone Republican for president since I was in high school."
He added, "I think that sends a powerful message to Republicans in Washington and around the country --if you aren't afraid to go big and go bold, you can actually get results."
The danger of that approach, as Pawlenty found, is that you may not become the favorite of neither conservatives nor moderates. In 2012, conservatives preferred Bachmann and later Rick Santorum, while moderate Republicans opted for Romney. In this primary process, moderate Republicans may have three acceptable choices besides Walker: Romney, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie. Santorum, Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee will appeal to conservatives.
And Marco Rubio, like Walker, is also likely to court both groups.
"It's hard to run as the conservative candidate and maintain electability," said Weber, who says he is leaning towards backing Jeb Bush. "We've seen that. You're going to get outflanked by somebody on the right. Count on it."
Pawlenty himself argues that his core problem was not raising enough money and then spending what he had too early. During the 2012 process, Santorum, Newt Gingrich and even Herman Cain were at times at tied in polls with Romney, and Pawlenty suggested he might have had a chance if he had remained in the race when the voting actually started.
"The ability to kind of persist was extremely valuable," said Pawlenty. "Each of the candidates had their month in the sun, we flamed out too early to have our own month."
"He's going to have a lot more money," Pawlenty said of Walker. "You have to have a Super-PAC. I didn't know what a Super-PAC was."
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If the goal of House Speaker John Boehner asking Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to address Congress in early March was to undermine the Obama administration's nuclear negotiations with Iran, well, that backfired -- at least in the short term. On Tuesday, a key group of Senate Democrats, including Senate Foreign Relations Committee ranking member Bob Menendez "told the White House they will hold their fire on Iran sanctions until March 24, taking pressure off the Obama administration as it seeks to complete negotiations about the country's nuclear program," NBC's Frank Thorp reports. The reason why it backfired: By scheduling the speech without the White House's blessing -- plus two weeks before Israel's own elections -- it came across as entirely political. And it ultimately turned into Democratic-vs.-Republican fight. "Israel has been, for several decades, a bipartisan cause in Washington,"
theAtlantic's Jeffery Goldberg writes. But he adds that Netanyahu's poor relationship with Obama -- including this most recent end-run around the White House -- alienates Democratic lawmakers ("One Jewish member of Congress told me that he felt humiliated and angered by Netanyahu's ploy to address Congress 'behind the president's back'") and American Jews (who overwhelmingly voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012).
Bibi is now getting blowback at home
And the New York Times writes that Netanyahu is now getting some serious blowback at home with the elections coming up. "Yehuda Ben Meir, an expert on public opinion at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said surveys had consistently shown that Israelis see a decrease in American support and a nuclear-armed Iran 'as the two most serious threats, almost equal in severity.' Israelis are highly critical of Mr. Obama, and may appreciate Mr. Netanyahu's standing up to him, but losing congressional Democrats, Mr. Ben Meir said, would play differently. 'Most people in Israel feel or think or believe that mainly this was done for internal political reasons,' Mr. Ben Meir said. 'His base may say he went because of the Iranian issue, but those swing voters - and what's important is always the swing vote - it could among certain parts of the electorate harm him. It might be that he didn't properly estimate the fallout.'"
White House yanks plan to roll back 529 accounts
Backfiring and blowback also applied to President Obama's proposed elimination of 529 college-saving plans. Indeed, the White House quickly reversed course on Tuesday and dropped the proposal. "We proposed it because we thought it was a sensible approach, part of consolidating six programs to two and expanding and better targeting education tax relief for the middle class," an administration official toldNBC News. "Given it has become such a distraction, we're not going to ask Congress to pass the 529 provision." There are two big lessons here: One, it shows why tax reform is SO HARD; you touch one popular tax break (even if it makes ton of economic/efficiency sense), and folks will scream bloody murder. Two, it's a story about the political/journalist class. Raise your hand if you have one of these 529 accounts for your children or grandchildren. As one observer tweeted, "You can see the major class bias of many journalists when they act as though *everyone* benefited from the 529 program." In fact, the benefits under the program are disproportionately skewed to Americans earning six figures or above -- who represent just a sliver of the population. Still, we're surprised the White House didn't see this blowback coming when it first proposed the plan.
And that yanking came very quickly
Yet there's another story here, too: That the White House yanked it SO QUICKLY -- especially while the president was overseas -- suggests it's still holding out hope to strike some sort of tax deal with congressional Republicans. If you want to see tax reform happen in the 114th Congress, the speed of the Obama White House's retraction might give you hope.
The Democrats' danger of focusing so much on the middle class
A final related point to this 529 story: We get why the White House centered President Obama's State of the Union speech on "middle class economics" -- especially considering that the economic recovery hasn't trickled down to the middle and lower classes. But there is a danger here for Obama's team and the Democratic Party. You don't want to be seen as the folks who are trying to keep Americans IN the middle class. Yes, many Americans are either in the middle class or think they're in the middle class. But not everyone WANTS to be in the middle class forever; they might have their sights higher.
Senate Judiciary Committee holds confirmation hearing for AG nominee Loretta Lynch
Finally, Obama's nominee to be his next U.S. attorney general, Loretta Lynch, today has her confirmation hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee. The New York Times sets the stage. "If she is confirmed, Ms. Lynch would be the nation's first African-American woman to serve as attorney general. Her allies have sought to differentiate her from Mr. Holder, an outspoken liberal voice in the administration who clashed frequently with Republicans who accused him of politicizing the office. In particular, Ms. Lynch is expected to face tough questioning about her opinion of the president's decision to unilaterally ease the threat of deportation for millions of unauthorized immigrants. Mr. Holder approved the legal justification for that action, enraging some Republicans. Ms. Lynch, the United States attorney in Brooklyn, will say that while she had no role in compiling the justification for the president's action, the legal underpinning was reasonable, according to officials involved in her preparation." The hearing begins at 10:00 am ET.
Click here to sign up for First Read emails. Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone. Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter. Follow us @chucktodd, @mmurraypolitics, @carrienbcnews
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