My Favorite Newsletter: First Thoughts: Here's Why Mitt Romney Has to Make Up His Mind Now

	January 30, 2015

Here's Why Mitt Romney Has to Make Up His Mind Now

Your big political news of the day is that Mitt Romney plans to hold a conference call at 11:00 am ET today with his closest supporters to discuss his 2016 presidential intentions, MSNBC's Kasie Hunt confirms. No one knows for sure what Romney will announce, but the hunch coming from Romney World is that the former Massachusetts governor is going to give it another try. But here's why Romney has to make up his mind now: The ground underneath his feet is already beginning to crumble. Just yesterday, we learned that Romney's top Iowa strategist in 2008 and 2012 -- David Kochel -- is set to be Jeb Bush's campaign manager. We also learned, via the AP, that some of Romney's past donors are jumping aboard the Jeb Train. And get this: We can tell you that folks whom Romney has INVITED on this call are already planning to work for Bush. (Remember, a lot of these people have been connected to the Bush World longer than to Romney.) So if Romney is going to do this, he needs to make a clear statement ASAP (and don't be surprised if it comes in the form of a PAC or other committee). It's not too dissimilar for what Jeb had to do a couple of months ago: convince skeptical politicos and donors that you're actually in the race.

From 2012 GOP nominee to "even footing" at best

When it comes to Romney possibly losing former advisers and donors to rivals, keep this in mind: Romney is going from being the GOP's general-election nominee -- with most of the party fully behind him -- to someone who's making a THIRD primary run. So you're bound to have these kinds of defections. As political scientist Jonathan Bernstein puts it, "The best case for [Romney] at this point is that he's on more or less even footing with several other candidates." Now, you can certainly win your party's presidential nomination on even footing. But Romney also won't be as strong right now as he was in the summer/fall of 2012 -- it's just a fact.

Measuring Romney vs. Jeb

By the way, here are Romney's and Bush's fav/unfav from our most recent (Jan. 2015) NBC/WSJ poll:

Overall for Romney: 27% positive, 40% negative
Overall for Bush: 19% positive, 32% negative
Among Republicans for Romney: 52% positive, 15% negative
Among Republicans for Bush: 37% positive, 15% negative

Bottom line: Both men are unpopular overall (and have actually lost ground since our previous polling); Romney is more popular than Bush among Republicans; but Bush also has more room to grow.

Obama fires up Democrats in Philly

Here's Roll Call on President Obama's words to House Democrats at their retreat in Philadelphia last night: "A fiery President Barack Obama addressed House Democrats Thursday night, making the case that, while there's more work to do in restoring the economy, Democrats can't be shy about what they've already accomplished." From Obama's remarks: "Obviously, we were all disappointed with the outcome of the last election, and there are a lot of reasons for it and I'm happy to take on some of the blame. But one thing I'm positive about is, when we're shy about what we care about, when we're defensive about what we've accomplished... We need to stand up and go on offense, and not be defensive about what we believe in!" Obama also took a not-so-subtle dig at Mitt Romney: "We've got a former presidential candidate on the other side who suddenly is just deeply concerned about poverty." That prompted Romney to return the fire via Twitter: "Mr. Obama, wonder why my concern about poverty? The record number of poor in your term, and your record of failure to remedy."
During Q&A that was off-camera, we learned that Obama told House Democrats that they can vote against his trade deals, but don't make a spectacle out of it

Senate passes Keystone bill. What happens next?
After three weeks of work, the Senate yesterday passed its bill to approve the Keystone XL Pipeline, 62-36, NBC's Frank Thorp reports. The bill now goes to the House, which must pass the Senate version if they plan to test President Obama's willingness to veto the legislation -- something the White House has indicated he would do. So what happens next? According to NBC's Alex Moe, "discussions are underway" regarding what House Republicans will do next. Two options are available: One, they could simply pass the Senate version. Or two, they could try to go to conference, where they would negotiate a middle ground between the House-passed and Senate-passed versions of the bill. The main difference between the House and Senate bills is the amendments that were added on to the Senate bill. Important note: The 62 Senators who voted for the bill is not enough to override a veto (you need 67 votes, or two-thirds of the Senate). The House, which passed its bill to approve the pipeline 266-153-1 on Jan. 9, also did not have the 290 votes needed to override a veto.

NBC/WSJ poll: Nearly four in 10 would discourage kids from football

With Sunday's Super Bowl approaching, it's been a tough year for Roger Goodell and the NFL. Ray Rice. Adrian Peterson. Deflate-gate. But neither of these stories is a serious, long-term threat to professional football. What is a threat - health and safety, especially as it relates to concussions. Well, new results from our most recent NBC/WSJ poll find that nearly four-in-10 Americans -- 37% -- say they would encourage their child to play another sport other than football due to concerns about concussions. By contrast, 60% of respondents say they disagree and would back their children if they wanted to play football. These findings are essentially unchanged from an NBC/WSJ poll from a year ago, when 40% said they'd encourage their children to play another sport, while 57% wouldn't. In the new poll, the percentage preferring their children play a different sport due to concerns about concussions is higher among seniors (51%), those with post-graduate degrees (50%), liberals (49%), Democrats (47%), Obama voters (46%), urban residents (40%), women (40%), and those who don't have children under 18 living in their household (38%). And it's lower among conservatives (28%), those ages 18-34 (28%), Republicans (30%), Romney voters (30%), those with a high school education or less (31%), men (32%), and those who do have children under 18 living in their household (34%).

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First Read's Morning Clips

OBAMA AGENDA: "A surge in government spending"

The AP, on Obama's pitch to House Democrats: "Declaring an end to "mindless austerity," President Barack Obama called for a surge in government spending Thursday, and asked Congress to throw out the sweeping budget cuts both parties agreed to four years ago when deficits were spiraling out of control."
MORE From the Philly Inquirer: "A defiant President Obama came to Philadelphia on Thursday to urge Democrats to keep aggressively promoting their beliefs, despite an Election Day drubbing. Embodying that combative outlook, Obama added a swipe at Republicans and Mitt Romney for, in his view, trying to imitate Democrats' concern for the average American."
From the New York Times: "President Obama on Friday will announce a major biomedical research initiative, including plans to collect genetic data on one million Americans so that scientists can develop drugs and treatments tailored to individual patients' specific characteristics, administration officials said."
Some top officials are concerned that the Secret Service needs even more of a shakeup to fix its problems, writes the Washington Post. "Two weeks after the Secret Service forced out four of its top officials, lawmakers are questioning whether the agency should have ousted one more - its influential second-in-command."
Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to smooth things over with congressional Democrats, but it's not going all that well, reports the New York Times.

CONGRESS: Keystone passes Senate

From our Capitol Hill team: "After years of political wrangling, the Republican controlled Senate on Thursday passed its first priority of the new Congress: the Keystone XL oil pipeline. The legislation easily passed by a 62 to 36 vote, with support from nine Democrats."
The Loretta Lynch hearing had just a few fireworks, but she's poised for confirmation.

OFF TO THE RACES: GOP to benefit from Koch spending spree

Here's NBC's Leigh Ann Caldwell with another smart take on that big budget number out of Koch-world. "The $889 million pledge by wealthy entrepreneurs Charles and David Koch and their network for the 2016 presidential cycle will come as welcome news to Republican candidates and causes who are likely to see the benefit of the spending spree, but for the Republican Party apparatus, it causes a bit of heartburn."
Will Hillary Clinton even bother debating her primary opponents? National Journal: "[H]ow many debates, where and when they're held, and what they look like depend entirely on which Democrats end up getting into the race-and if Clinton faces second-tier opposition, there's a chance there won't be any debates. Unlike with Republicans, who have long known the likelihood of a big field and could plan their debates accordingly, the Democrats' process has always been more uncertain."

BUSH: Romney's top Iowa guru is signing on with Jeb Bush.

POLITICO talks to Michael Schiavo about Jeb Bush. "It was a living hell," Mr. Schiavo said, "and I blame him."

PAUL: CC: Ted Cruz, Rick Perry. "Texas GOP Chairman Steve Munisteri is set to announce Friday that he is resigning his party post in early March and joining Mr. Paul's team of advisers for a possible 2016 presidential campaign," writes the Wall Street Journal.

ROMNEY: Kasie Hunt confirms that Mitt Romney will discuss his 2016 intentions with supporters on an 11am call today.
From Bloomberg: "Those who have been helping Romney make up his mind say there are three factors in favor of a run, and two factors against. The main rationale on the "go" side is Mitt and Ann Romney's strongly held conviction that no one in the current field would make a better president. "

RUBIO: The Washington Post says Rubio's skipping of the Keystone vote for a fundraising swing may one be one of "the clearest signals yet that he intends to run for president rather than seek reelection to a second term in 2016."

And around the country:

A non-political tidbit from our latest poll: "Ahead of Sunday's Super Bowl showdown, nearly four-in-10 Americans - 37 percent - say they would encourage their child to play another sport other than football due to concerns about concussions."

INDIANA: From the Indy Star: "Gov. Mike Pence killed his administration's plans for a state-run news service Thursday amid a national uproar that spurred ridicule for the idea across the political spectrum. Pence announced in a memo to state agency heads that they would no longer be launching the JustIN website and that they would instead update the state's online press release system and state calendar."

NEW YORK: Via the New York Times: "The magic number is 76. And on Thursday, State Assemblyman Carl E. Heastie appeared to be tantalizingly close to, or past, that threshold and thus on the precipice of ascending to the soon-to-be-vacant speakership of the New York Assembly."

PROGRAMMING NOTES. *** Friday's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" line-up: NBC's Andrea Mitchell interviews "Shark Tank's" Mr. Wonderful Kevin O'Leary, Former NFL player Ben Utecht, Bloomberg Editor Jeanne Cummings, the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza and NBC's Chuck Todd, Bill Neely and Craig Melvin.

Nearly 4 in 10 Would Steer Kids to Play Sports Other than Football

Ahead of Sunday's Super Bowl showdown, nearly four-in-10 Americans - 37 percent - say they would encourage their child to play another sport other than football due to concerns about concussions, according to a newly released result from the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
By contrast, 60 percent of respondents say they disagree and would back their children if they wanted to play football.
These findings are essentially unchanged from an NBC/WSJ poll from a year ago, when 40 percent said they'd encourage their children to play another sport, while 57 percent wouldn't.
In the new poll, the percentage preferring their children play a different sport due to concerns about concussions is higher among seniors (51 percent), those with post-graduate degrees (50 percent), liberals (49 percent), Democrats (47 percent), Obama voters (46 percent), urban residents (40 percent), women (40 percent), and those who don't have children under 18 living in their household (38 percent).
And it's lower among conservatives (28 percent), those ages 18-34 (28 percent), Republicans (30 percent), Romney voters (30 percent), those with a high school education or less (31 percent), men (32 percent), and those who do have children under 18 living in their household (34 percent).
The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Jan. 14-17 of 800 adults, and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.5 percentage points.

Romney to Discuss 2016 Intentions With Top Supporters Friday

Former GOP nominee Mitt Romney will speak with top supporters and donors Friday to discuss whether he is moving towards a presidential run.
Close Romney supporters received an email asking them to join the potential candidate by phone for an 11am call to discuss his intentions.
Romney and his wife Ann have been deliberating over a third presidential bid, and have privately said they'll make the decision in short order.
Some top Republicans have expressed skepticism about another presidential bid by the former Massachusetts governor, who failed to oust incumbent President Barack Obama in 2012. He was widely believed to have stepped away from presidential politics until early this year, when he told a meeting of donors that he was mulling another run.
He has also lost a number of past supporters to a new favorite of establishment Republicans - former Florida governor Jeb Bush. The latest defection came Thursday, when Romney's two-time Iowa guru, operative David Kochel, signed on to be Bush's national campaign manager if Bush pursues a run.

- NBC's Carrie Dann contributed.

Romney's Iowa Guru Signs on With Jeb Bush

Jeb Bush has snagged Mitt Romney's chief Iowa operative to lead his national campaign if he decides to run for president.
David Kochel, who was Romney's top strategist for the first-in-the-nation caucus state in the 2008 and 2012 elections, told the Des Moines Register that he wants Bush "to take his record of accomplishment and dynamic, conservative ideas to the whole nation."
The move illustrates how both Bush and Romney, perceived as favorites of the GOP establishment, are competing for the same donors and staff, with alumni of both camps torn about which to support in a primary battle if both men decide to run.
In a statement, Bush spokesman Kristy Campbell confirmed that "if Governor Bush were to move forward with a potential campaign, Dave is in line to play a senior role in a potential campaign."
"Dave is one of the most respected political strategists in the country and his expertise and leadership will be critical to helping Governor Bush outline his vision for expanding opportunity for all Americans in the coming months," she added.
Mike Murphy, another former Romney adviser, has also signed on with Bush as a top strategist.

- Mark Murray, Alex Moe and Kasie Hunt