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Welcome to Wonkbook, Wonkblog's morning policy news primer byMax Ehrenfreund (@MaxEhrenfreud). Send comments, criticism or ideas to Wonkbook at Washpost dot com. To read more by the Wonkblog team, click here. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook. |
| A look back at Obama’s vetoes so far |
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Pipes for the Keystone XL project sit in storage in Gascoyne, North Dakota. (Reuters/Andrew Cullen)
At the end of his first year in office, Congress passed a temporary funding measure for the Pentagon along with a regular appropriations bill. Obama signed the regular bill, making the stopgap unnecessary, so he vetoed it.
He killed a second bill the following year, this one dealing with mortgages. The proposal would have required states to recognize notarizations of documents from other states. After Congress passed the bill without fanfare, several major banks were accused of forging documents in order to foreclose on homeowners more easily. Advocates for consumers persuaded the White House that the legislation would have made it easier for banks to evade rules designed to protect borrowers.
Unlike interstate notarizations and defense stopgaps, the Keystone XL pipeline is widely popular, so this would be Obama's first veto involving any political risk. But it probablywouldn't be his last, either.
What's in Wonkbook: 1) Obama threatens Keystone veto 2) Opinions, including Chris Hayes on Steve Scalise 3) Boehner retained as speaker 4) Dynamic scoring enacted 5) Economists get in touch with the real world, and more
Number of the day: Six. That's about how many Americans die of an alcohol overdose each day, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Sabrina Tavernise in The New York Times.
Chart of the day:
Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) was wrong when he warned the Federal Reserve was debasing the dollar. It's on a tear, relative to other currencies. Matt O'Brien in The Washington Post.
1. Top story: Obama threatens to veto Keystone bill
The White House says the veto is about following standard procedures. A spokesman argued that the State Department, which has already completed an environmental review, must wait for the Nebraska Supreme Court to issue a ruling on the siting of the pipeline before making a decision. Laura Barron-Lopez in The Hill.
But supporters of the pipeline aren't giving up. The bill has 63 likely votes in the new Senate, and even if proponents can't override a presidential veto, they'll try to insert the provision into another bill later this year. Juliet Eilperin in The Washington Post.
The veto would have "political complications." "Republicans are already pointing to the threat as more evidence of their narrative that he’s a dictatorial president who refuses to listen, even on an issue that has enormous support in public opinion polls." And Obama will likely want to veto more bills in the next two years, now that Republicans control Congress. Edward-Isaac Dovere and Burgess Everett in Politico.
How many jobs would the project actually create? More than 10,000 construction workers would be employed for a few months each. Including manufacturing the components for the pipeline, the project would employ 16,000 people directly for a year (although some of that work has already been completed). Glenn Kessler in The Washington Post.
Old-school gaming interlude: You can now play dozens of classic MS-DOS games for free online, notably Oregon Trail and the original Sim City. Matthew Yglesias at Vox.
2. Top opinions
HAYES: The House's new majority whip is a reminder of Republicans' ugly recent history. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) once spoke at a conference held by notorious white supremacist David Duke, who pushed welfare reform and affirmative action into the G.O.P. mainstream. MSNBC.
SARGENT: Overtime pay could further divide populist Democrats from Obama. Employers are required by law to offer overtime pay for workers who make less than a certain amount each week, but as with the minimum wage, that protection has become less meaningful with time due to inflation. The administration must decide by how much to increase the threshold. The Washington Post.
A stronger dollar carries economic risks. The dollar's appreciation is a sign that international investors are betting on the U.S. economy and is helping consumers save money on gasoline. Yet as the dollar gains in value, emerging markets overseas are in danger, as are energy companies here in the United States. More coordination among central bankers around the world would at least create stability. The Wall Street Journal.
McLARTY: Democrats must vote for a trade deal. Labor unions have typically opposed free trade, but the Trans-Pacific Partnership would help exporting firms, allowing them to employ more people at middle-class wages. And protectionism can't protect the U.S. economy from globalization. The Wall Street Journal.
EDSALL: The Colorado senate race showed how Republicans can move past the tea party. Cory Gardner, now a G.O.P. senator, won by thoroughly abandoning his more controversial positions, especially on reproductive rights and immigration. The New York Times.
3. Boehner beats defectors
Two dozen Republicans voted against Boehner for speaker. "It was the largest rebellion by a party against its incumbent speaker since the Civil War." Robert Costa, David A. Fahrenthold and Sean Sullivan in The Washington Post.
KLEIN: Boehner is the speaker Republicans need. Many bills he's supported has failed, and he's often looked incapable of advancing productive legislation. Still, he's managed to stymie Obama's agenda. His party controls the largest majority in the House in decades. Most of all, he's stayed in power, despite his fractious caucus. Vox.
BALZ: The defection bodes ill for any moderate G.O.P. presidential candidate. A "prominent dissent" from Steve King, an Iowa congressman, is a reminder of the political pitfalls for Republicans seek to establish their appeal among primary activists in crucial primary states. The Washington Post.
4. Dynamic scoring becomes reality
Budget scorers will now have to consider macroeconomic effects of major bills. The change might make it easier for Republicans to pass a tax reform bill, since they believe that their policies would improve the economy overall and produce more revenue than current official estimates show. Opponents of the change say macroeconomic estimates of this kind are uncertain, unreliable and easily influenced by ideological assumptions. The rule change was approved along party lines, and does not apply to spending on education and infrastructure, Democrats' preferred forms of fiscal stimulus. Jonathan Weisman in The New York Times.
LAZEAR: The current method isn't neutral -- it ignores the larger economy. To keep scorers honest, they should be required to make their model public and to use the same one for all bills they analyze. The Wall Street Journal.
VAN HOLLEN & SLAUGHTER: Kansas should be a cautionary tale for Republicans. State officials there predicted major tax cuts would improve the economy and balance the budget, but they were catastrophically wrong. Accurate predictions about the economy are difficult, which is why many conservatives oppose dynamic scoring. Politico.
Panda interlude: Bao Bao, a 16-month-old cub, plays in the snow Tuesday at the National Zoo.
5. In case you missed it
Obama has nominated a former head of the Bank of Hawaii to the Federal Reserve. The choice of Allan R. Landon follows lobbying from community banks seeking greater representation in monetary policymaking and financial regulation. Martin Crutsinger for the Associated Press.
A NASA telescope has found several more Earth-like planets.One of them, Kepler 438b, is likely more similar to our own than any other planet yet discovered, with a rocky surface and the right temperature for liquid water. That doesn't mean humans could easily live there, even if we could travel the 470 light-years to get there -- the average temperature could be about 140 degrees Fahrenheit. Ian Sample in the Guardian.
Economists are reconnecting with the real world. That was the atmosphere at the discipline's major annual conference, where more papers than usual discussed public policy. Ben Casselman and Andrew Flowers at Five Thirty Eight.
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