| February 25, 2015 | |
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As House Republicans meet at 9:00 am ET, here's where we stand in the battle over funding for the Department of Homeland Security. One, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has essentially thrown in the towel by saying he's ready to consider a "clean" DHS bill -- that is, without the riders rolling back President Obama's executive actions. Two, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid is trying to make things difficult for Republicans, explaining that BEFORE they support the clean DHS bill, House Speaker John Boehner must promise this same vote on the House floor. And three, House Republicans are divided on how to proceed. As Roll Call puts it, "do they want to put legislation on the floor that would certainly pass and save the agency from a shutdown, but would surely be carried by Democrats and likely fall well short of the so-called 'Hastert Rule,' where the majority of the majority party secures a bill's success?" More Roll Call: "Rep. Paul Gosar, R-Ariz., said he thinks Boehner could not survive such a move politically... On the flip side, some House Republicans are questioning if the Republican Party as a whole could weather the political storm of opposing a "clean" DHS spending bill. 'I don't see how it's helpful for us to risk a shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security,' said Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma."
The details you need to know
NBC's Frank Thorp has more on the Senate state of play in the DHS funding standoff:
-- According to a Senate GOP leadership aide, the clean DHS bill would actually be an amendment to the House-passed DHS bill, simply because appropriations bill must originate in the House.
-- Senate Democrats would have to agree to move to the House-passed bill, so they could amend it with clean funding bill, either by unanimously doing so (which would likely be tough), or by getting the 60 votes needed to move on to the bill. Reid and Senate Democrats say they are not ready to agree to that until they speak to Boehner and get assurances that he'll pass a clean bill.
-- The vote to curtail President Obama's executive action related to immigration from November of 2014, (which is commonly known as the Collins Plan since Sen Susan Collin (R-ME) introduced it), will be a separate procedural vote on Friday with a 60-vote threshold. At the moment, that measure will have no bearing on funding for DHS.
-- GOP leadership aides are fuming at Senate Democrats for now saying they will object to bringing up a clean bill before they talk to Boehner, saying they are moving the goal posts after weeks, if not months, of calls for an immediate vote on a clean funding bill.
Obama holds immigration-themed town hall in Miami
At 3:45 pm ET in Miami, President Obama participates in an immigration-themed town hall Telemundo townhall hosted by MSNBC's/Telemundo's Jose Diaz-Balart. The town hall airs on MSNBC at 8:00 pm ET and on Telemundo at 7:00 pm ET. TheNew York Times sets the stage: "President Obama, thwarted by a federal court from carrying out pieces of his immigration directive and barraged daily by congressional Republicans trying to gut or defund it, is in many ways frozen in place on his attempt to wield presidential authority to reshape the immigration system. So Mr. Obama is taking his message on the road, using a trip to Miami on Wednesday to exact a political price from Republicans for their opposition to his immigration policy and to consolidate gains he has made with Hispanics since announcing executive actions to shield millions of unauthorized immigrants from deportation."
Obama vetoes Keystone legislation. But don't forget: He could STILL approve the pipeline
President Obama yesterday issued the third veto of his presidency, stiff-arming the Keystone pipeline legislation that Congress passed earlier this year. It's unlikely that Congress has the two-thirds majorities in both chambers to override Obama's veto. Yet largely lost in yesterday's back-and-forth over Obama's veto is this important point: In his veto message, the president didn't take issue with the merits of the Keystone pipeline; instead, he maintained that the matter is for the EXECUTIVE branch to decide, not the LEGISLATIVE branch. And it bears repeating: There's the real possibility that the Obama administration could still approve the Keystone pipeline. After all, there are supporters inside the administration that believe the U.S. should throw Canada -- a stalwart ally -- a bone here.
Jeb's "Reformocons" vs. Walker's "Supply-siders"?
NBC's Perry Bacon confirmed yesterday's news, first reported by National Review, that Jeb Bush's emerging campaign has enlisted leading "reform conservative" thinker April Ponnuru (wife of the National Review's Ramesh Ponnuru). And given that Scott Walker's appearance in New York last week (where Rudy Giuliani said Obama doesn't love America) was with prominent GOP supply-siders, it's maybe worth noting that the GOP primary could come down between Jeb's "Reformocons" and Walker's "supply siders." As Jonathan Chait described the debate, it's between conservatives who want to target tax breaks and relief to the middle class -- the Reformocons -- versus conservatives who believe that big tax breaks for all (including the wealthy) is the way to bring prosperity -- the supply-siders. Don't forget: The last time we saw a Bush taking on the supply-siders was when George H.W. Bush was railing against Ronald Reagan's "voodoo" economics. And guess who won that fight?
On Hillary's Silicon Valley speech
Here's NBC's Andrew Rafferty on Hillary's appearance in Silicon Valley yesterday: "Hillary Clinton dropped a number of hints about her expected presidential run in 2016 and laid out what could be the tenets of a potential campaign in front of a women's conference in Silicon Valley on Tuesday. The former secretary of state said she is checking the final items off her list of things that must be in place before she officially announces her campaign, saying she will make a decision 'in good time.' 'I am obviously talking to a lot of people, thinking [it] through,' Clinton told Kara Swisher, the co-executive editor of Re/code, during a question and answer session. 'Because here's my view on this, Kara: I just think that we have so many big issues we have to deal with that unless we can really come together and have a national conversations about those issues, we're not going to make the progress we need.' The crowd excitedly applauded when Clinton high-fived Swisher after the journalist said: 'I interviewed President Obama last week and I'm eager to interview another president.'"
New Q-poll shows Walker ahead in Iowa
A new Quinnipiac poll of likely 2016 Iowa caucus-goers has Scott Walker in the lead with 25% -- followed by Rand Paul at 13%, Mike Huckabee and Ben Carson tied at 11%, and Jeb Bush at 10%. (Note: Our NBC/Marist poll from earlier this month, which had Huckabee on top, was among POTENTIAL Iowa caucus-goers.) Perhaps more revealing are the fav/unfavs for these candidates:
Walker 57%-7% (+50)
Carson 51%-5% (+46)
Huckabee 63%-24% (+39)
Paul 58%-22% (+36)
Jeb Bush 41%-40% (+1)
Chris Christie 30%-54% (-24)
This is more proof that the more conservative candidates are dominating in that conservative caucus. After all, add up Walker, Carson, and Huckabee vs Jeb and Christie. Ouch.
Rahm gets forced into a runoff
Here's the problem when you're not a beloved politician and you're forced to run against yourself: You experience the kind of rebuke that Rahm Emanuel suffered yesterday. The Chicago Tribune: "Rahm Emanuel failed to win a second term Tuesday, suffering a national political embarrassment as little-known, lesser-funded challenger Jesus 'Chuy' Garcia forced the mayor into the uncharted waters of an April runoff election. It's the first time Chicago has had a runoff campaign for mayor, which is what happens when none of the candidates eclipses the 50 percent benchmark in round one. With 98 percent of the city's precincts counted, unofficial results showed Emanuel with 45.4 percent and Cook County commissioner Garcia at 33.9 percent. Businessman Willie Wilson had 10.6 percent, 2nd Ward Ald. Bob Fioretti had 7.4 percent and frequent candidate William "Dock" Walls was at 2.8 percent." Make no mistake: Emanuel can still win the April runoff, but this was a major rebuke in a weak field of candidates. Also note: Be wary of progressive groups trying to claim credit for forcing Emanuel into this runoff. It's more than Emanuel hasn't been popular in Chicago over the last four years - rather than this being a populist movement against him.
Ted Strickland announces OH SEN bid
At publication time, former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland announced that he's running for the Senate next year. Here's the thing about Democrats re-running the likes of Ted Strickland, Russ Feingold, and possibly Joe Sestak in '16: Because it's a presidential electorate, they have a much better chance -- on paper -- of winning than they did in 2010. As we wrote last week, 80% of the time the party that wins a state in a presidential election also wins the competitive Senate seat in the same state. In other words, if Hillary Clinton wins Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in '16, chances are that Strickland/Feingold/Sestak will win. On the other hand, these re-run candidacies look a bit, well, stale. And that's a MAJOR problem for the party.
Villaraigosa's no-go in CA SEN race creates clear path for Kamala Harris
Lastly, with Antonio Villaraigosa's decision NOT to run for California open Senate seat in 2016, it sure looks like Secretary of State Kamala Harris (D) is going to have a cakewalk to capturing it next year. Who would have thought CA SEN would essentially be over before it even started?
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OBAMA AGENDA: Vetoed
The president vetoed the Keystone XL pipeline bill yesterday, NBC News reports. And the Washington Post notes that this is likely the first of many vetoes from the president.
Susan Rice called Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to the United States "destructive" to U.S. relations with Israel.
NBC's Frank Thorp writes: "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declined an invitation to meet with Democratic Senators behind closed doors when he comes to the U.S. to address a joint session of Congress next month."
CONGRESS: Will House Republicans follow Mitch McConnell's lead?
The Washington Post: "The Senate moved closer Tuesday to a deal to avert a partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security, but the proposal faced an uncertain future in the House, where Republican leaders conspicuously refused to embrace it."
From the AP: "Early reviews from House conservatives were negative ahead of a closed-door caucus meeting set for Wednesday morning, their first since returning from a weeklong congressional recess. Several insisted they could not accept the two-part strategy proposed by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell: a vote on legislation to fund the Homeland Security Department, and a separate vote to overturn Obama's recent executive actions sparing millions of immigrants in this country illegally from deportation."
Lawmakers are wrestling with the nitty-gritty details of a possible trade deal, writes the Wall Street Journal. "House and Senate leaders crafting the so-called fast-track bill want to include sweeteners to attract skeptical Democrats, including rules to allow lawmakers greater access to the details of continuing trade negotiations. But supporters fear too many provisions friendly to Democrats could alienate Republicans and the business community, or even put a major Pacific trade deal at risk when it comes up for a final vote."
OFF TO THE RACES: Walker ahead in Iowa, per new poll
A new Quinnipiac poll shows Scott Walker with 25 percent support among likely GOP Iowa caucus participants, with 13 percent for Rand Paul, 11 percent for Ben Carson and Mike Huckabee and 10 percent for Jeb Bush.
BIDEN: NHJournal previews Biden's visit to New Hampshire: "With the rapid fire action of Republican potential presidential candidates stealing much of the political attention in New Hampshire lately, Vice President Joe Biden's return to the first-primary state will be sure to stoke some interest in what could happen on the Democratic side."
BUSH: Jeb Bush is setting up a big meeting in April with his big donors and his likely campaign team, writes the Wall Street Journal.
National Review reports - and NBC confirms - that Bush is hiring leading reformocon April Ponnuru as a policy aide.
CLINTON: NBC's Andrew Rafferty on her Silicon Valley speech yesterday: "The former secretary of state said she is checking the final items off her list of things that must be in place before she officially announces her campaign, saying she will make a decision "in good time.""
From POLITICO: "In hundreds of documents released to POLITICO under the Freedom of Information Act, not a single case appears where the State Department explicitly rejected a Bill Clinton speech. Instead, the records show State Department lawyers acted on sparse information about business proposals and speech requests and were under the gun to approve the proposals promptly. The ethics agreement did not require that Clinton provide the estimated income from his private arrangements, making it difficult for ethics officials to tell whether his services were properly valued."
CHRISTIE: The New York Times reports that he is hiring a Google executive to serve as spokeswoman for his PAC.
FIORINA: Supporters are starting a new super PAC.
JINDAL: The Times-Picayune editorial board is not happy with Bobby Jindal: "When Bobby Jindal stands in front of the White House and lambasts President Barack Obama's leadership -- as he did Monday and last year when Republican governors met in Washington -- his political handlers must think it makes him look like a statesman. From here, it just looks desperate -- desperate to get some national attention for his anemic presidential bid, desperate to get away from the fiscal mess Louisiana is facing."
PAUL: Mitch McConnell is backing Paul's bid for an early Kentucky caucus, which would allow the senator to run for reelection and for president at the same time.
RUBIO: He talked to NH1's Paul Steinhauser in New Hampshire, weighing in on immigration, the DHS showdown, Jeb Bush and Rudy Giuliani.
And around the country...
CALIFORNIA: Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa won't run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA).
ILLINOIS: The Chicago Tribune on Rahm Emanuel being forced into a mayoral runoff: "In the sometimes quirky and symbolic math of politics, Mayor Rahm Emanuel lost the expectations game Tuesday, even though he captured more votes in a re-election bid than any of the four rivals hoping to unseat him. The mayor's tally was not enough, however, to avoid a humbling April 7 runoff."
NEW YORK: Garner case prosecutor and congressional candidate Daniel Donovan is defending his record. "His reputation elsewhere may have been badly damaged by the Garner case, but not on Staten Island. A natural fit with the comparatively conservative, blue-collar electorate here, with its ample community of civil servants, Mr. Donovan's law-enforcement background represents a handy turn of the page after Mr. Grimm's oversize exploits," writes the New York Times.
PROGRAMMING NOTES.
*** Wednesday's "News Nation with Tamron Hall" line-up: Tamron Hall speaks with legal analyst Lisa Green about the American Sniper trial, Chicago Tribune City Hall reporter Bill Ruthhart about the Mayoral race in Chicago, Executive Director of the Nigerian-American Leadership Council Sam Okey Mbonu about an American missionary taken hostage in Nigeria, Political analyst Robert Zimmerman about DHS funding and 2016 election, and actress Anne Heche and Actor Jason Isaacs about their new series on USA: DIG.
*** Wednesday's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" line-up: NBC's Andrea Mitchell interviews Fmr. White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, Fmr. Rep. Patrick Murphy, MSNBC's Jose Diaz-Balart, the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza, USA Today's Susan Page, NBC's Kelly O'Donnell, Luke Russert, Miguel Almaguer, Gabe Guitierrez and Charles Hadlock.
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Scott Walker leads the GOP pack in the key early caucus state of Iowa, a new poll from Quinnipiac University shows.
The once little-known Wisconsin governor gets the support of 25 percent of likely Republican caucus participants, while potential rivals Sen. Rand Paul (13 percent), Ben Carson (11 percent), Mike Huckabee (11 percent) and Jeb Bush (10 percent) lag behind.
Walker also gets a strong favorability rating with likely GOP caucus-goers, with 57 percent saying that they have a positive view of him compared to just seven percent who disagree. Three out of four Tea Party members also give him a thumbs up.
Bush, who is viewed as a fundraising powerhouse and a favorite of establishment Republicans, gets a positive rating from 41 percent of those surveyed, while 40 percent view him negatively.
And Bush particularly struggles with the most conservative of caucus participants. Nearly four in ten Tea Party members said they would definitely not support him for the GOP nod.
Another GOP hopeful who struggles with the conservative-leaning Iowa GOP electorate is New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Just four percent of respondents say they would support him for the nomination, and more than half say they have a negative view of him.
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who narrowly won the caucuses in 2012, received four percent support in the poll. Also registering in single digits: Ted Cruz (five percent), Bobby Jindal (two percent), Rick Perry (three percent) and Marco Rubio (four percent.)
The telephone survey was conducted from February 16 to 23. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. |
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With just four days to go until the Department of Homeland Security runs out of funding, lawmakers are searching for a way to break the logjam over immigration that has put the agency's budget on the chopping block.
The roots of the ongoing battle date back to December, when lawmakers passed a $1 trillion budget bill just hours before a midnight shutdown deadline. One condition that became crucial to that package's passage was a measure - designed to appease conservatives angry about President Barack Obama's executive action to offer millions of undocumented immigrants temporary relief from deportation - funding the Department of Homeland Security only until February 27.
Now, just a few days before that self-imposed deadline, Republicans are struggling for unity within their own party after House leaders tied the agency's funding to a rollback of the president's immigration proposals. Senate Democrats have stood firm against that measure, voting four consecutive times to block the entire package even from being debated on the Senate floor.
On Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said that he plans to separate the DHS funding issue from the immigration language, putting forward two separate votes rather than one. Under the proposal, the Senate would vote on a "clean" DHS budget bill with no add-ons that would fund the agency until October 1. The chamber would also vote on a separate bill, called "the Immigration Rule of Law Act," that would strip funding only for the president's November executive orders on immigration.
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid responded that he wants assurances that the GOP-led House will deliver enough votes to pass the DHS funding plan.
And it's not clear how the House will react to McConnell's gambit. House Speaker John Boehner faces a vocal conservative bloc in the lower chamber, which argues that Obama's immigration move represents a constitutional crisis which must be stopped at all costs. These advocates also note that, because the majority of DHS employees are considered essential employees who would be required to work despite a funding lapse, a DHS shutdown would not jeopardize America's safety.
Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, an outspoken conservative who opposes the president's executive action, called McConnell's move "a mistake."
"Congress is obliged to use every constitutional check and balance we have to rein in President Obama's lawlessness, and that includes both our confirmation authority over nominees and the power of the purse," he said in a statement.
McConnell and Boehner could also try to push through a short-term "clean" bill by claiming that the immigration issue is already being addressed by the courts. Earlier this month, a Texas judge issued a temporary injunction forbidding the administration from implementing the deportation relief as planned. The Department of Justice has appealed the ruling.
Senate Republicans meet Tuesday to discuss the way forward, while Republicans in the House will huddle Wednesday morning.
Republican leaders also must weigh how the American public would react to the DHS shutdown, particularly in the wake of well-publicized terror threats against U.S. targets. Despite efforts to pin the blame squarely on Senate Democrats, who have blocked consideration of the funding bill, some in the GOP worry that the public would fault Republicans for the funding lapse.
"If we don't fund the Department of Homeland Security, we'll get blamed as a party," South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham said Sunday.
NBC's Luke Russert contributed.
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Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa won't run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), likely paving the way for California Secretary of State Kamala Harris (D) to win the heavily Democratic state in 2016.
Villaraigosa tweeted, "I've decided not to run for US Senate, my heart and family are in CA. But our work is not done and neither am I."
In a statement, he added that he's "humbled" by the support he received from those who encouraged him to run.
"I have decided not to run for the U.S. Senate and instead continue my efforts to make California a better place to live, work and raise a family," he said.
That Villaraigosa tweet leaves open the possibility he might run for CA GOV in 2018, but he's passing on a 2016 Senate bid.
- Mark Murray and Alex Moe
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