My Favorite Newsletter: First Thoughts: The Crazy and Insane Week In Presidential Politics

	March 13, 2015

First Read Minute: 9 in 10 Americans Agree D.C. Looks Out for Its Own Political Interest

NBC's Mark Murray and Carrie Dann discuss the idea that gets nearly 90 percent of Americans to agree.

Nine in 10 Americans Agree: D.C. Looks Out For Its Own Political Interest

It's not every day when nearly 90% of Americans agree on something, so this got our attention in the most recent NBC/WSJ poll: 89% believe that the president and Congress want to stick to their partisan positions instead of work together. That includes 90% of Republican respondents, 89% of Democrats, and 85% of independents -- so about as unanimous as you'll get on any political question. Now, those who believe Washington figures act in their own political interest diagnose the problem differently: 26% blame Republicans more for this, 15% point the finger at President Obama, and 47% blame both sides equally. But if you wanted a theme to tie together the news of the past week -- Hillary's emails, the GOP reaction to them, that Senate Republican letter to Iran's leaders, and the Democrats' furious response back -- it's this story. Americans believe politicians are looking out for their own political interest than the common interest. And they're not wrong.

Two wrongs don't make a right
The two big political stories over the past week -- Hillary's emails and that Iran letter -- have led to partisans saying, "Well, the other side does it, too!!!" as one of us recently noted in a Facebook post. Case in point: Hillary Clinton's defenders have argued that Jeb Bush has his own private server, and that Scott Walker had his own email system in Wisconsin. But do those practices mean that Clinton's personal email use is OK? The other example: Republicans contend that the GOP's letter to Iran's leaders is justified because Nancy Pelosi went to Syria in 2007, and because ex-Rep. David Bonior went to Baghdad in 2002 to protest in the impending Iraq war. But when did two wrongs make a right? If you criticized said behavior in the past, you can't turn around and use it to justify your current behavior. It's no wonder that 90% of the country thinks Washington is looking out for its own partisan interest.

Was Clinton's '08 campaign doomed to fail? Or was she beaten by a once-in-a-lifetime figure?
Inevitably, the Clinton email story has produced plenty of Democratic handwringing. Here's the Washington Post: "Some top Democrats are alarmed about Clinton's readiness for a campaign." Here's the New York Times: "Mrs. Clinton, many Democrats say, is simply too big to fail." And the handwringing over this email story is really about one thing -- many Democrats don't believe that Clinton has learned from her 2007-2008 mistakes. But here's a question we should all be asking ourselves: Were the mistakes from eight years ago fundamental flaws that could doom her against any well-funded, well-supported opponent? Or was Barack Obama the only person on the planet who could have beaten her? In other words, could Hillary Clinton have done everything the same she did in 2008 -- tough relationship with the press, no central narrative/message around her candidacy, not correcting the image that everyone always assumes the worst when it comes to the Clintons -- and still won the White House had it not been for Barack Obama? The answer to that question helps determine if Democrats should be really worried, or if this whole episode is a bump in the road.

A Tale of Two Electorates
Our most recent NBC/WSJ poll demographically breaks down Democratic and GOP primary voters. The results reveal a tale of two VERY different electorates:

Democrats: 58% female, 42% male
Republicans: 54% male, 46% female

Democrats: 46% liberal, 40% moderate, 12% conservative
Republicans: 66% conservative, 28% moderate, 5% liberal

Democrats: 62% white, 25% African American, 12% Latino
Republicans: 95% white, 6% Latino, 1% black

Democrats: 25% 18-34, 26% 35-49, 29% 50-64, 20% 65+
Republicans: 19% 18-34, 25% 35-39, 34% 50-64, 21% 65+

Democrats: 22% high-school degree or less, 25% some college, 24% 4-year degree, 29% post-grad
Republicans: 24% high-school degree or less, 31% some college, 28% 4-year degree, 17% post-grad

Who better represents middle-class values?
Both political parties have identified the "middle-class squeeze" as the top economic issue in American politics. But our NBC/WSJ poll shows that neither is really viewed as the solution. But one party is definitely in worse shape here than the other. Per the poll, just 36% of Americans say that President Obama represents middle-class values, 33% say that of Hillary Clinton, and 30% say that of the Democratic Party. By comparison, only 19% of Americans say the Republican Party represents middle-class values, and just 15% say that of Jeb Bush.

Is Cummings also eyeing MD SEN seat?
In Maryland's open Senate race, Politico reports that it's more than possible that Rep. Elijah Cummings becomes the third Democrat (after Chris Van Hollen and Donna Edwards) to jump into the contest. "'It does appear as though he probably has a strong proclivity to running,' said a source with deep ties in Maryland politics. 'This is an opportunity that - who knows when it will come around again for a minority, much less an African-American? It's a momentous opportunity for someone with his story.'" But the same source wonders if Cummings wants to give up his perch as the Democrats' top defender at the House Oversight Committee and Benghazi Committee.

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First Read's Morning Clips

OBAMA AGENDA: Police officers shot in Ferguson
Breaking overnight: "Two police officers suffered 'very serious' wounds after being shot early Thursday during a demonstration in Ferguson, Missouri, authorities said. Gunfire rang out as about 50 protesters and about 30 police officers remained outside the Ferguson Police Department shortly after midnight local time (1 a.m. ET) at a dwindling rally following the resignation of the embattled force's chief."
From the AP: "U.S. military and intelligence officials are voicing increasing pessimism about a key tenet of the Obama administration's strategy to dislodge the Islamic State group and stabilize Iraq. They say they are seeing little sign of any political accommodation between the country's Shiite-led government and an alienated Sunni population from which the extremist force is drawing money and personnel."
Obama's proposal to authorize military force on Capitol Hill is really in trouble,POLITICO notes.
Benjamin Netanyahu says he sees a "real danger" of losing his re-election bid.
More Secret Service troubles: The Washington Post broke late yesterday that two senior Secret Service agents are under investigation for driving a car into a White House barricade after drinking.

CONGRESS: GOP united in criticizing Obama on foreign policy
The New York Times on how foreign policy is uniting congressional Republicans: "The renewed emphasis on foreign policy has done more than provide Republicans with a rallying point - it has also given them a respite from internal divisions that were exposed in an unsuccessful effort to block the president's immigration actions and the embarrassing collapse of border security and abortion legislation in the House."
The Washington Post on Tom Cotton's new role: Leading conservative hawk. And there's this observation: "Unlike the 2010 Republican wave election, which produced a class that flashed a non-interventionist, war-weary streak embodied by Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), the 2014 class is a more hawkish crowd."
The bipartisan human trafficking bill might be derailed by the insertion of an anti-abortion provision that's causing flared tempers on both sides.

OFF TO THE RACES: Why sitting governors have a fundraising disadvantage
Bloomberg takes a look at an issue we've explored before too -- how pay-to-play rules hamper fundraising for the governors eyeing a 2016 bid.

CHRISTIE: WNYC reports: "The political operative who helped mastermind the notorious lane closures at the George Washington Bridge - and is now cooperating with a federal investigation of the Bridgegate scandal - had more extensive contact with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's inner circle than the governor has acknowledged."

CLINTON: A top talker today, from the New York Times: "Mrs. Clinton, many Democrats say, is simply too big to fail."

And from the Washington Post: "Senior Democrats are increasingly worried that Hillary Rodham Clinton is not ready to run for president, fearing that the clumsy and insular handling of the nine-day fracas over her private e-mails was a warning sign about the campaign expected to launch next month."

Dan Balz has this smart take: "The absence of a strong Democratic bench has never been more apparent."

The Wall Street Journal looks back at the Clintons' 2009 decision to run Hillary Clinton's email through the private server at their home. "A private server had obvious advantages. It would give Mrs. Clinton more control over her email, people familiar with her team's reasoning said. Privately, aides of the former president worried that adding her account would make the system a target for hackers. They also weren't aware she would use it for all her official correspondence."

POLITICO, on the Clinton strategy: "In order to hasten the issue's fade to irrelevance, Clinton's team is redoubling its hiring and organizing efforts within the early presidential nominating states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, operating as if she were facing a serious Democratic challenger. Allies think such political maneuvers would surely draw headlines given the political press corps' deep appetite for news of Clinton's plans over the coming months, distracting from the email questions."

TIME's cover story: "The Clinton Way."
(Hmmm, where have we seen that headline and story before?)

GRAHAM: TIME: "Almost two months after the South Carolina Republicanannounced that he was "definitely" looking at a presidential run, an online straw poll from his home state's party still did not include him."
O'MALLEY: After saying he's "a little sick" of the email story, Martin O'Malley said this morning that it's "important" that a secretary of state use an official email server.
RUBIO: Rubio's slow-and-steady approach is winning fans, writes the National Review.

And around the country...
FLORIDA: Marc Caputo reports on the early race to replace Marco Rubio
ILLINOIS: The Chicago Sun Times' Lynn Sweet: "Rep. Aaron Schock's political director went on 'official' New York trip"
UTAH: Utah lawmakers - with the backing of the Mormon church -- have passed a billbanning LGBT discrimination.

PROGRAMMING NOTES.
*** Thursday's "News Nation with Tamron Hall" line-up: Tamron Hall speaks with Alderman from St. Louis Antonio French and President of the St. Louis Chapter of the NAACP Adolphus Pruitt about the 2 cops that were shot in Ferguson last night after Police Chief Thomas Jackson announced his resignation, Senator Bob Casey (D-PA) about his new Iran sanctions bill, and Hip hop artist and actor Cliff "The Method Man" Smith about his new movie: The Cobbler.
*** Thursday's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" line-up: NBC's Andrea Mitchell interviews Sen. Tim Kaine, "Meet the Press" Moderator Chuck Todd, Photojournalist Bradley Rayford, who witnessed the police shooting in Ferguson, MO last night, Democratic strategist Kiki McLean, the AP's Julie Pace, NBC's Ron Allen and Ron Mott and Retired Col. Jack Jacobs.

AP Sues State Department for Access to Hillary Clinton Emails

The Associated Press has sued the State Department as it seeks access to email correspondence by Hillary Clinton during her tenure as Secretary of State.
From the AP:

The legal action comes after repeated requests filed under the U.S. Freedom of Information Act have gone unfulfilled. They include one request AP made five years ago and others pending since the summer of 2013.
The lawsuit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, comes a day after Clinton broke her silence about her use of a private email account while secretary of state. The FOIA requests and lawsuit seek materials related to her public and private calendars, correspondence involving longtime aides likely to play key roles in her expected campaign for president, and Clinton-related emails about the Osama bin Laden raid and National Security Agency surveillance practices.

The move comes one day after Clinton addressed the email controversy for the first time publicly, saying that she "fully complied with every rule I was governed by" even as she used a private email account to conduct official business.
The AP's General Counsel, Karen Kaiser, said in a statement:

"After careful deliberation and exhausting our other options, The Associated Press is taking the necessary legal steps to gain access to these important documents, which will shed light on actions by the State Department and former Secretary Clinton, a presumptive 2016 presidential candidate, during some of the most significant issues of our time. The press is a proxy for the people, and AP will continue its pursuit of vital information that's in the public interest through this action and future open records requests."

Citing their standing policy related to ongoing litigation, the State Department has declined to comment.

- NBC's Carrie Dann and Abigail Williams

First Read Minute: The Clinton Way- Hillary Follows a Familiar Script

NBC's Mark Murray and Carrie Dann discuss what we learned in Hillary Clinton's news conference responding to her use of personal emails as secretary of state.