Overnight Finance: CBO: Obama budget to add $6T to deficit

TOMORROW STARTS TONIGHT: $6 TRILLION. Rebecca Shabad for the hometown paper: "President Obama's fiscal 2016 budget request would add nearly $6 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said Thursday. This is slightly more than the $5.7 trillion shortfall that the president's budget projected for the 10-year window, but the CBO estimate is less than the $6.6 trillion it said the president's previous budget would add to the deficit over 10 years." Shabad crunches the numbers... 1.) Immigration reform: Obama asked Congress to pass the bipartisan immigration reform bill approved by the Senate in 2013. CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimate that the legislation would reduce the deficit by $158 billion. 2.) Increase in income tax receipts: Obama's budget proposes to cap the reduction in tax liability that results from exclusions and deductions at 28 percent. That change would increase taxes by $526 billion over the next 10 years, CBO and JCT projected. 3.) Medicare spending decreases: Changes to Medicare requested in the budget would decrease federal spending by $240 billion over the next decade, CBO said. Shabad's story: http://bit.ly/1BAqYRj THIS IS OVERNIGHT FINANCE and it's Thursday and almost spring. Tomorrow is Friday. Thank you for reading. Tweet: @kevcirilli; email: kcirilli@thehill.com; and subscribe: http://thehill.com/signup/48. Take it easy, folks... 2016 WATCH: DEMOCRATS HAVE NO CHOICE BUT HILLARY CLINTON. Nicholas Confessore, Jonathan Martin and Maggie Haberman for The New York Times: "As Mrs. Clinton prepares to begin her second presidential campaign amid a froth of criticism and outrage, Democrats are not just Ready for Hillary -- as supporters named one pro-Clinton 'super PAC' -- they are desperate for her. Congressional Democrats are counting on a strong Clinton campaign to help lift them back into the majority. "Party leaders at all levels want her fund-raising help and demographic appeal. And from the top of the party to its grass roots, Mrs. Clinton's pseudo-incumbency is papering over significant disadvantages: a weak bench, a long-term House minority and a white middle class defecting to the Republican Party faster than the Democrats' hoped-for demographic future is expected to arrive. Mrs. Clinton, many Democrats say, is simply too big to fail." http://nyti.ms/1wZAaQL EX-IM WATCH: LENDER SETTLES WITH BANK FOR FRAUD, via Reuters: "Miami-based lender Hencorp Becstone Capital L.C. has agreed to pay $3.8 million to settle allegations that it made false statements and claims to obtain loan guarantees from the Export-Import Bank, the U.S. Department of Justice said on Thursday. "The DOJ said the government alleged a Peruvian-based former Hencorp business agent created false documents to obtain Ex-Im Bank guarantees for fake export transactions, then diverted the funds to himself, friends and associates. Hencorp had acted recklessly by outsourcing credit review functions without proper supervision or oversight, the department said in a statement." http://reut.rs/1AqW7mx DEAN HELLER FIGHTS FED FOR REGULATORY RELIEF. Pete Schroeder reports: "Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) is 'deeply concerned' that the Federal Reserve could inappropriately impose tough new capital standards on the insurance industry. In a letter to Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Heller urged caution as the Fed begins to establish new rules for large insurance companies. In particular, the Senate Banking Committee member said he was wary of the new federal rules on an industry that had previously been monitored exclusively by the states." http://bit.ly/1FUfb0W MARK WARNER FIGHTS AGAINST TAX IDENTITY THEFT, via Lydia Wheeler: "Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) said the IRS should inform taxpayers when they have become victims of tax identity theft... He asked if the IRS could create a national education system where taxpayers could be notified of tax scams and check to see if a fraudulent return has been filed on their behalf." http://bit.ly/1EfCcLU CYBER WATCH: PANEL ADVANCES BILL. Cory Bennett and Elise Viebeck: "The Senate Intelligence Committee passed a controversial cybersecurity bill 14-1 during a markup Thursday, a move that Chairman Richard Burr (R-N.C.) called 'historic.' The Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act (CISA) would enhance the sharing of information about cybersecurity threats between the private sector and intelligence agencies." http://bit.ly/1x042fF SURVEY SAYS: RATE HIKE IN JUNE OR SEPTEMBER. Pedro Nicolaci Da Costa for WSJ: "The Federal Reserve will start raising short-term interest rates in June or September, according to most economists who responded to a Wall Street Journal survey published Thursday. The central bank has held its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero since late 2008. Most central bank officials have indicated they expect to raise it this year, with several saying they would consider a move in June. The Journal poll of 63 economists, conducted March 6-10, found 29 expected the Fed to make its first move in June, 23 in September and four in July." http://on.wsj.com/1NQ7vCu CAUGHT: COMMERZBANK. Schroeder: "Federal and state regulators are demanding the resignation of several employees at a German bank Commerzbank, along with a $1.45 billion penalty for helping countries avoid U.S. sanctions." http://bit.ly/1MwCe6b THE ANNOYING 'LET IT GO' SONG BOOSTED THE STOCK MARKET. Caitlin Huston for MarketWatch: "Shares of Walt Disney Co. rose 4.2% to close at an all-time high Thursday, after the company announced a sequel to 'Frozen,' which the entertainment giant boasted as being the highest grossing animated film ever. The company announced 'Frozen 2,' which will include the creative team and cast from the first film, during the annual shareholder's meeting Thursday. A release date hasn't been announced." http://on.mktw.net/1HMRsRQ THE STORM AHEAD: TROUBLE BREWING FOR OBAMA'S ECONOMIC FORECAST. Schroeder: "The U.S. economy is finally chugging along, but a resurgent recovery is bringing its own set of challenges that could complicate the president's record on an issue that has dominated his time in office. A set of looming matters, both within and far outside of Washington's control, will play a huge role in financial markets and the broader economy in the coming months. "How those events play out could go a long way in scoring President Obama's overall economic record, just as Americans are finally beginning to feel a recovery take hold... A new congressional makeup could set the stage for fresh fiscal fights, as lawmakers prepare to pass a budget soon. And looming over the horizon is another debate over raising the debt ceiling, likely necessary sometime in the summer or fall." http://bit.ly/1L1OOgo MODERATE DEM LEADER ON 'TENSION' WITH WARREN-WING. Will Marshall, president and founder of the center-left Progressive Policy Institute, was on C-SPAN this morning talking about pragmatic progressives' role in the 2016 election cycle and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.): -- ON OBAMA AND TRADE: "This is an ambitious agenda... He needs his party's support to get that over and there's some balking on both sides. He's got some work to do to win over Democrats... There's about 48 NDC [New Democrat Coalition] members in the House now... that's down from the two big wipe-outs in 2010 and 2012... We saw pragmatic Democrats lost in Republican sweeps... The pragmatic center is diminished but we're still feisty in getting those seats back." -- ON DIFFERENCES WITH WARREN-WING: "The economy is turning a corner, thank God... but it hasn't really worked it's magic on wages... There's a lot of people who want to make a big fight out of this: The Warren-wing versus the pragmatic progressives and there's going to be some creative tension. But the important point is that unlike the Republicans, we're a diverse coalition... [We're] determined to reassert their intellectual and political leadership in the party... This is, in fact, what the New Democrats did in the 1990s - - they led with new ideas... so the House Democrats [New Democrat Coalition], to their credit, understand that the party needs a more energizing and inspiring message in order to win back these competitive swing districts -- suburban swing districts -- without which Democrats are never going to get back the majority in the House." -- ON HILLARY CLINTON: "It seems highly likely she will be the standard bearer. It must be said about her that she has one foot in the experiences of President Clinton, her husband, and the New Democratic policies of the '90s, and of course she has served in the Obama administration so she has broad support across the breadth of this very diverse Democratic Party... [The email server issue] is a media manufactured [event]... In this weird period where there is no Democratic race and there is shaping up to a very exciting Republican one, these kinds of stories are going to get more attention than they deserve." -- ON NEWSPAPER HEADLINES: "There's a lot of drama in newspaper headlines." Full interview: http://cs.pn/1L27yfD Write us with tips, suggestions and news: vneedham@thehill.com; pschroeder@thehill.com; bbecker@thehill.com; rshabad@thehill.com; kcirilli@thehill.com. --Follow us on Twitter: @VickofTheHill; @PeteSchroeder; @BernieBecker3; @RebeccaShabad and@kevcirilli.