| | January 27, 2015 | |
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National Review's Jim Geraghty on Monday made a provocative point: Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, and Chris Christie aren't in the top tier of Republican presidential candidates in 2016. Instead, that designation belongs to Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Rick Perry, and Bobby Jindal. Now, we can disagree on some of these names (Perry? Jindal?), but it seems that Geraghty is making a bigger point here: As long as the GOP establishment is divided -- especially if some combination of Bush/Romney/Christie are running -- it's hard to include them in the first tier. The reason: It becomes a simple math game. In the 2014 midterms, the GOP establishment won (see Thom Tillis, Dan Sullivan, Cory Gardner) in large part because the Republican establishment was united (not divided) around one candidate. And in 2016, the easiest way an establishment Republican candidate makes it to the first tier is if there is just one of them. But that's not the case right now.
The GOP's problem with their new income-inequality message
So how do you fix it? An interesting thing has happened with all of the positive economic news over the past few months: Republicans have either tried to take credit for the growing economy (see: McConnell, Mitch), or they've become new crusaders to lessen income inequality. Here was Ted Cruz at the Koch Brothers-backed Freedom Partners meeting in California over the weekend: "The people who have been hammered for the last six years are working men and women." Here was House Speaker John Boehner to "60 Minutes" on Sunday: "[F]rankly the president's policies have made income inequality worse." And here was McConnell in that same "60 Minutes" interview: "Look, things are getting better. But the point is who is benefiting from this? This has been a top of the income recovery -- the so-called one percent that the president's always talking about have done quite well. But middle and lower income Americans are about $3,000 a year worse off than they were when he came to office." So then the question becomes: How do you fix the problem?
It's hardly the friendliest terrain for Republicans
Per MSNBC's Suzy Khimm, the GOP's traditional answer here is through lower taxes or tax reform. And Boehner blames regulations for the income inequality. "All the regulations that are coming out of Washington make it more difficult for employers to hire more people, chief amongst those, I would argue is Obamacare-- which basically puts a penalty or a tax on employers for every new job they create," he said on "60 Minutes." But the income-inequality playing field isn't the friendliest terrain for Republicans. Are you for or against raising the minimum wage? (Boehner is against.) Are you for or against closing tax loopholes benefitting the wealthy? What about Medicaid expansion? The Obamacare subsidies the Supreme Court is deciding this year? And do you still call for reining in Social Security benefits? The GOP taking up the income-inequality cause is akin to a vegetarian becoming a food critic of America's best steakhouses. You can certainly do it -- but it's not necessarily your strong suit. Plus, it's QUITE the transition.
But it's something they have to figure out
What Republicans are doing here, however, is looking for angle to talk about the economy considering the more positive economic statistics. And Republicans HAVE to figure out a suitable message, because a large part of their rank-and-file voters aren't benefitting from the economy right now. The recovery has come to a lot of urban areas (read: Democratic), but not rural ones (read: Republican). But it's something they have to figure out, especially given all the money the party gets from Wall Street and free-market/libertarian types.
Big Bucks: Koch Brothers groups to spend nearly $900 million in 2016 cycle
And speaking of that free-market/libertarian crowd, both the Washington Post andNew York Times reported on Monday that all of the Koch Brothers-backed subsidiaries (American for Prosperity, Freedom Partners, Concerned Veterans for America, etc) are slated to spend nearly $900 million during the 2016 cycle. Let us repeat: $900 million!!!! And no one is trying to knock down this number. If the past is any indication, most -- if not all -- of that money will be in anonymous contributions not tracked by the Federal Election Commission. (So fellow political reporters: Don't rely on FEC data to tell you which party has the financial advantage in the upcoming presidential contest; those numbers are only telling you PART of the story.) To put the nearly $900 million into perspective, consider:
They've essentially built a separate political party
Bottom line: The Koch Brothers and their backers have built an entire political party outside of the official Republican Party structure. It's not too different from what organized labor did in the '70s and '80s. The big difference: There's a lot more money and sophistication in today's politics than what we saw 30-40 years ago.
Gay marriage will be a GOP litmus test, no matter which way the Supreme Court rules
Even if the Supreme Court legalizes marriage in all 50 states, social conservatives aren't going to let Republican presidential candidates off the hook, Politico says. Social conservatives [in Iowa] are determined to keep the issue alive during the run-up to next February's Republican caucuses, no matter how the high court rules or how much some establishment figures would like to move on. 'If you dodge the question, then it's the kiss of death,' said social conservative Sam Clovis, who finished second behind Joni Ernst in last year's Iowa GOP Senate primary. 'Candidates have got to be declarative about where they stand. Period.'"
Obama arrives in Saudi Arabia
After spending the last few days in India, President Obama has landed in Saudi Arabia to pay respects to the late King Abdullah, as well as to the person who will succeed him. The New York Times: "In addition to paying respects to the family of Abdullah, who died Friday, Mr. Obama plans to meet with his successor, King Salman. In part, the goal of the trip is for the president and his team to take Salman's measure and, quietly at least, assess his health. The king, 79, has had at least one stroke and lost some movement in one of his arms. While Mr. Obama has met Salman before, they do not have a notable relationship. But American officials were encouraged that Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, the interior minister, was named deputy crown prince, signaling a next generation of leadership, because he has a long history of working with the United States on counterterrorism issues. He has met with Mr. Obama at least twice."
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OBAMA AGENDA: Saudi Arabia, here we come
A 30-member delegation will join Obama to meet with new King Salman of Saudi Arabia today.
What does the new power structure in Saudi Arabia mean for counterterrorism? The New York Times has more.
In India, Obama warned of divisions over religion. "The president exhorted Indians to uphold the ideal of freedom of religion, which was laid out in the country's founding documents, saying that in both India and the U.S., diversity is a strength. Mr. Modi's party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, has faced criticism for pushing a religious agenda and chipping away at secularism in India. And the prime minister himself was cited for "severe violations of religious freedom" by the U.S. State Department. For a decade, Mr. Modi was prohibited from setting foot on U.S. soil-a decision that followed his failure to stop deadly Hindu-Muslim riots in 2002."
The New York Times: "The Obama administration on Tuesday will announce a proposal to open up coastal waters from Virginia to Georgia for oil and gas drilling, according to a person briefed on the plan. At the same time, in Alaska, the administration will ban drilling in some portions of the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, according to the personal familiar with the plans, who could not speak publicly about them until the announcement."
The Congressional Budget Office said yesterday "that the deficit would fall to $468 billion this year and $467 billion in 2016, or 2.5 percent of the economy, from $483 billion in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30. It would be the lowest level since 2007. Then it is projected to rise steadily, to $489 billion in 2017 and $953 billion by 2023. By 2025, the annual deficit will be back over $1 trillion. The budget office forecasts that under current policy, the government will add $7.6 trillion to the $18 trillion federal debt over the coming decade," per the New York Times.
And the fight against 'Superbugs:' "The Obama administration wants to double the amount of federal funding dedicated to combating antibiotic-resistant bacteria, a mounting problem that causes an estimated 2 million illnesses and 23,000 deaths annually in the United States," writes the Washington Post.
CONGRESS: Stalled and delayed
A measure to approve the Keystone XL pipeline stalled last night in the Senate.
Consideration of a House border security bill has been kicked to next month, with lawmakers blaming the weather but some admitting that it may not have had enough backing to pass at all.
Harry Reid's eye surgery was successful at removing a blood clot from his eye, but it's still not confirmed that his vision will be fully restored.
U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman testifies on the free-trade measures before the House Ways and Means Committee and the Senate Finance Committee. Per an administration official, "Ambassador Froman will emphasize the administration-wide effort underway to advocate for TPA, TPP, and T-TIP both on the Hill and across the country, as well as the indispensable contributions trade made to our economic recovery from the Great Recession. Ambassador Froman will also highlight that the President's historic trade agenda is a bright spot for bipartisanship going into the 114th Congress, and that trade represents a significant opportunity for both parties to work together in strengthening our economy as it gains momentum."
OFF TO THE RACES: $889 million!
First from the Washington Post: "A network of conservative advocacy groups backed by Charles and David Koch aims to spend a staggering $889 million in advance of the next White House election, part of an expansive strategy to build on its 2014 victories that may involve jumping into the Republican primaries."
Longtime McCain aide and Iowan Mark Salter rips the Iowa caucuses in an article on Real Clear Politics. "The most well-attended GOP caucus draws fewer than one-fifth of registered Republican voters. Many of the voters who do participate are not, I venture to say, typically Iowan in outlook or even manners."
"Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus will announce today that Katie Walsh, who led the party committee's fundraising efforts in the 2014 election, will serve as chief of staff in the 2016 cycle," the Washington Post says.
CHRISTIE: He's reaching out to NH Rep. Frank Guinta, NH1 reports.
EHRLICH: The former Maryland governor is eyeing a run.
PENCE: From the Indy Star: "Gov. Mike Pence is starting a state-run taxpayer-funded news outlet that will make pre-written news stories available to Indiana media, as well as sometimes break news about his administration, according to documents obtained by The Indianapolis Star." (WHAT????)
ROMNEY: Kiss of death? Nancy Pelosi's rooting for him to win the GOP nomination,per The Hill.
RUBIO: Bloomberg writes that supporters and donors are newly bullish about a Rubio run.
SANDERS: Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is headed back to New Hampshire, via NH1.
And around the country...
CALIFORNIA: The LA Times reports on the shadowboxing between Kamala Harris and Antonio Villaraigosa.
IOWA: Gov. Terry Branstad remained in the hospital overnight after collapsing from what his staff called "a flu-like illness."
KENTUCKY: Alison Lundergan Grimes is running for reelection as Secretary of State.
NEW YORK: Now, Democrats are calling for Sheldon Silver to step down as the speaker of the State Assembly.
SOUTH CAROLINA: Don't miss NBC's Leigh Ann Caldwell's take on South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley -- and whether the moment is ripe for her national comeback
PROGRAMMING NOTES.
*** Tuesday's "News Nation with Tamron Hall" line-up: Tamron Hall will have all the latest on the Blizzard that affected the Eastern seaboard specifically areas that were hit the hardest: Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone, Mayor of Warwick Rhode Island Scott Avedisian, and NBC Correspondents John Yang, Mike Seidel and Chris Pallone .
*** Tuesday's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" line-up: NBC's Andrea Mitchell interviews Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo, Logan International Airport CEO Thomas Glynn, Portland, ME Mayor Michael Brennan, Nantucket Police Chief William Pittman, AAA Managing Director John Nielsen, Massachusetts Red Cross Communications Director Jessica Emond and NBC Meteorologist Bill Karins.
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| The former Virginia governor can remain free while he appeals his corruption convictions. |
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Alison Lundergan Grimes, the Democratic Senate candidate in Kentucky who failed to oust Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in 2014, announced Monday that she will seek re-election to her current post as Kentucky's secretary of state.
Lundergan Grimes could be poised to play a role in the presidential aspirations of fellow Kentuckian Rand Paul. As secretary of state, she could work to block Paul from running for re-election to the Senate and for president at the same time. The simultaneous runs aren't allowed under current state law.
Grimes said in December that she will not be "bullied" by the Republican senator.
- Carrie Dann
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| NBC News' Mark Murray and Carrie Dann discuss the three important things we learned from Saturday's Republican cattle call in Iowa, which was hosted by Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa. |
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