2015년 2월 27일 금요일

First Thoughts: GOP Leaders Find a Way to Break the DHS Impasse. But Will It Pass?

 February 27, 2015 
NBC NEWSFIRST READ
 
 GOP Leaders Find a Way to Break the DHS Impasse. But Will It Pass?
With the Department of Homeland Security set to run out of money by midnight, House Republican leaders have finally come up with a solution to fund the department and end their immigration showdown -- albeit temporarily. Per NBC's Capitol Hill team, House Republicans are moving on a bill to fund DHS for three weeks, and the money isn't tied to rolling back President Obama's immigration actions. A final vote on this measure is expected either later this morning or early afternoon. Once the legislation passes, the House plans to pass a motion to go to conference with Senate over how to fund the department for the rest of the year. But here's the hitch, as our Capitol Hill team notes: House Democrats aren't willing to bail out House Speaker John Boehner; they don't want a three-week extension. (Indeed, we can report that Democrats will be whipping AGAINST the bill.) So if NO Democrats vote for the bill, Boehner is going to have find 218 votes to pass it -- when a sizable chunk of House conservatives still want a fight over Obama's immigration actions. If history is any guide here, we're not sure this will pass. Then again, does the GOP's larger House majority after the party's 2014 midterm victories give Boehner a little more cushion? We'll find out.

Boehner is trying to buy time
The reason this is the politically smart way for the House GOP leadership to go is that the three-week extension gives Republicans time to find how the 5th Circuit is going to rule on the Obama administration's request for a stay on the immigration action. If the 5th Circuit does NOT give the administration a stay, then in three weeks, funding DHS for the rest of the year will be a layup. So Boehner is trying to buy time, but will his conference give him the time.

The Senate moves on its own legislation
Over on the Senate side, NBC's Frank Thorp reports that the chamber has reached an agreement to hold votes on a clean DHS funding bill -- for an entire year -- starting at 10:00 am ET today. The Senate will hold three votes:
1) a procedural motion (cloture) on the House-passed DHS funding bill (needs 60 to pass)
2) an amendment to replace the House-passed bill with a clean DHS appropriations bill that funds DHS until the end of September (needs 50)
3) final vote to pass the clean DHS bill (needs 50)

Thorp also notes that the Senate will also hold a procedural vote Friday on the separate measure to prohibit the Obama administration from implementing its 2014 executive action with respect to deferred action, immigration, and enforcement -- a motion that is expected to fail to get the 60 votes needed to proceed. The vote comes after the Congressional Budget Office sent a letter saying that this measure will actually INCREASE DEFICITS by $6.3 billion over the next ten years. Those deficits come as a result of lost revenue from Social Security taxes that won't be paid by immigrants who would no longer be eligible for the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program if the bill were to become law.

Picking fights instead of governing
In addition to the GOP's battle over Obama's immigration actions, it's worth noting all the different fights congressional Republicans are picking -- including against Loretta Lynch's nomination as U.S. attorney general, against Washington DC and Mayor Muriel Bower over the city's marijuana legalization. In the two months since taking complete control of Congress, Republicans have picked more fights (over immigration, Lynch, DC marijuana) than they have passed legislation that has become law (the Clay Hunt SAV Act and the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act).

Walker's stumble at CPAC yesterday
Remember when we said how conservatives were beginning to give Scott Walker the benefit of the doubt -- and how that's a powerful thing in American politics? Well, that changed a bit yesterday after Walker APPEARED to compare handling Wisconsin union protestors to ISIS at CPAC yesterday. "If I could take on 100,000 protestors, I could do the same across the world," he said. That drew a rebuke from National Review's Jim Geraghty: "Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker received a lot of completely undeserved grief from the national news media in the past weeks. But he may have made a genuine unforced error in one of his remarks [yesterday]." Rick Perry also pounced on Walker's remarks, per MSNBC's Kasie Hunt. "You are talking about, in the case of ISIS, people who are beheading individuals and committing heinous crimes, who are the face of evil. To try to make the relationship between them and the unions is inappropriate," he said. How do you know when you're a frontrunner? One, you start rising in the polls and in fundraising. Two, you start getting attacked from others in your party. Here was the statement from Walker's team yesterday: "He was in no way comparing any American citizen to ISIS. What the governor was saying was when faced with adversity he chooses strength and leadership."

Another reminder how much of the 2016 GOP field isn't that fluent when talking about foreign policy and national security
Yet there's a bigger point to make about Walker's stumble: It's yet ANOTHER reminder how many of the GOP 2016ers aren't all that fluent when talking about foreign policy and national security. With the exception of Lindsey Graham and maybe Marco Rubio and Rick Santorum, the likely Republican presidential field has little to no foreign-policy experience - when it's possible that foreign policy becomes a major part of the 2016 general election.

Friday's CPAC schedule
8:40 am ET: Marco Rubio
9:00 am: Rick Perry
10:20 am: Rand Paul
12:20 pm: Rick Santorum
1:40 pm: Jeb Bush
4:20 pm: John Bolton

The past CPAC straw poll winners
On Saturday at 5:10 pm ET, the results from the CPAC straw poll will be announced, but here's a friendly reminder: The straw poll winner hasn't always been the best measure of who will win the party's presidential nomination. Here are the past winners:
2014: Rand Paul
2013: Rand Paul
2012: Mitt Romney
2011: Ron Paul
2010: Ron Paul
2009: Mitt Romney
2008: Mitt Romney
2007: Mitt Romney
2006: George Allen
2005: Rudy Giuliani

So that's a Paul who's won five out of the last five years, and either a Romney or Paul for the last EIGHT years. Bottom line: What happens at CPAC usually stays at CPAC. Here's the link to all of NBC's CPAC coverage. And here's a video of the best zingers yesterday.

The GOP's other cattle call
And by the way, CPAC isn't the only GOP cattle call that's happening this week/weekend. Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Mike Pence, and Marco Rubio are all addressing the Club for Growth conference in Florida. Here was Jeb Bush yesterday, per the Washington Post: "Jeb Bush acknowledged that he may not be a flashy speaker or make the loudest arguments. But the Republican presidential hopeful offered himself to his skeptical right flank Thursday night as a fellow conservative who is passionate about fixing problems and has a record of doing so. 'There are going to be a lot better speakers than me,' Bush told a gathering of the Club for Growth, a conservative advocacy group that has long antagonized the GOP establishment. 'That's great. I'm all for it. If I could get better at it, I'd be all in - trust me. But the simple fact is, I got to be governor of this state - this purple state, this wacky, wonderful state - for eight years. I ran as a conservative, I said what I was going to do, and I had a chance to do it. And trust me, I did.'"

The tragic - and bizarre - story out of Missouri
Finally, we have to end on the tragic -- and bizarre -- story out of Missouri. "Missouri Auditor Tom Schweich, who had recently launched a Republican campaign for governor, fatally shot himself Thursday in what police described as an 'apparent suicide' - just minutes after inviting reporters to his suburban St. Louis home for an interview. Schweich's death stunned many of Missouri's top elected officials, who described him as a 'brilliant' and 'devoted' public servant with an "unblemished record" in office. Just 13 minutes before police got an emergency call from his home, Schweich had a phone conversation with The Associated Press about his plans to go public that afternoon with allegations that the head of the Missouri Republican Party had made anti-Semitic comments about him." Just wow.

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 First Read's Morning Clips
OBAMA AGENDA: Marking Trayvon Martin's death
The president on Thursday marked the third anniversary of Trayvon Martin's death, saying that on the day, "showing all of our kids -- all of them -- every single day, that their lives matter -- that's part of our task."
The AP on Israeli-American relations: "At home, Netanyahu is being accused of cynically turning the speech into a campaign stop ahead of March 17 elections, insisting on confronting Obama to distract from scandals and domestic issues dogging his re-election bid. The uproar has even pushed aside debate over his key argument that Iran's nuclear weapons-making capabilities will be left largely intact. The Israeli media and political opponents have lambasted the decision to flout the White House, and even some allies who support Netanyahu's message have criticized the approach."
The New York Times checks in with David Petraeus. "Today, General Petraeus is Citizen Petraeus, a new partner in KKR & Company, a New York private equity firm. Last month he was back in Kazakhstan, this time courting the business elite at Nazarbayev University, founded by the Kazakh leader."

CONGRESS: Racing against the clock
Playing catchup on the DHS funding fight? Here's all the latest.
More, from the Washington Post: "Facing a Friday-night-into-Saturday-morning shutdown deadline, the plan might ultimately win support from lawmakers in both parties on Friday. But its passage would only continue a standoff between the House and the Senate over longer-term DHS funding. Separately, the Senate was moving toward a final vote on a funding bill that would not go after Obama's immigration directives."
The AP notes: "Numerous House Republicans say it's preferable to let the Homeland Security Department go unfunded for a few days, at least, if that's the cost of undoing a White House immigration policy they consider unlawful. These lawmakers say the impact on national security would be minimal, as would the political risks."
Pot politics: "Some Congressional Republicans said Thursday that they would increase their efforts to prevent residents here from possessing small amounts of marijuana, which became legal in Washington at midnight, and warned that the city would face numerous investigations and hearings should the mayor continue her practice of telling them to please find something else to worry about," writes the New York Times
So this happened: "Sen Jim Inhofe (R-OK), a staunch opponent of claims that humans have contributed to climate change, took to the Senate floor Thursday to make his case -- by holding a snowball."

OFF TO THE RACES: Wrapping CPAC
Miss yesterday's festivities? Here's our wrap of the day at CPAC (with plenty more to come today!)
And we put together some of the best video moments from Thursday's speakers.
Here's McClatchy's take on CPAC: "Republican potential presidential candidates seemed torn Thursday: Would they get more accolades from conservatives by bashing President Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton or Jeb Bush?
The New York Times notes that the format changes at CPAC are forcing candidates to answer more specific policy questions.
NBC's Leigh Ann Caldwell writes that Walker and Christie's approaches to unions were both tested Thursday at CPAC.
BUSH: In a speech to the Club for Growth, Jeb Bush "backed a set of education standards known as Common Core and touted the economic benefits of increased immigration, restating his belief that immigrants in the country illegally should eventually be granted some form of legal status," writes the Wall Street Journal.
Buzzfeed: "When Bush officially launches his presidential bid later this year, he will likely do so with a campaign manager who has urged the Republican Party to adopt a pro-gay agenda; a chief strategist who signed a Supreme Court amicus brief arguing for marriage equality in California; a longtime adviser who once encouraged her minister to stick to his guns in preaching equality for same-sex couples; and a communications director who is openly gay."
PERRY: MSNBC's Kasie Hunt talked to Rick Perry about Scott Walker's comparison of his fight against unions to his ability to fight ISIS. "These are Americans," Perry said. "You are talking about, in the case of ISIS, people who are beheading individuals and committing heinous crimes, who are the face of evil. To try to make the relationship between them and the unions is inappropriate."
RUBIO: The Hill writes that Marco Rubio has the most to gain or lose from CPAC.
WALKER: A Walker spokesman, on his comments re: ISIS and union protesters: "Governor Walker believes our fight against ISIS is one of the most important issues our country faces. He was in no way comparing any American citizen to ISIS. What the governor was saying was when faced with adversity he chooses strength and leadership. Those are the qualities we need to fix the leadership void this White House has created."
He's headed to Germany, Spain and France in April.

PROGRAMMING NOTES.
*** Friday's "News Nation with Tamron Hall" line-up: Tamron Hall speaks with Senator Bob Casey (D-PA) about funding the Department of Homeland Security, Democratic Strategist Robert Zimmerman and Republican Strategist John Feehery about CPAC, NBC News reporter Tracy Connor about her story on former NFL star Kermit Alexander, actress Cynthia Nixon about her directorial debut for the play "Rasheeda Speaks", and "The Dog Whisperer" Cesar Milan about his new show on NAT GEO Wild: "Cesar 911" .
*** Friday's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" line-up: NBC's Kristen Welker will interview Rep. Luis Gutierrez, "Meet the Press" Moderator Chuck Todd, Re/code Co-Executive Editor Kara Swisher, MSNBC's Steve Kornacki, Bloomberg Editor Jeanne Cummings, NBC's Kelly O'Donnell, Luke Russert and Richard Engel and the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza.
 
 
 Live Updates From CPAC, Day Two
The NBC News political team is watching Day Two of CPAC, an annual conference of conservatives where presidential hopefuls jockey for cheers and support. Stay tuned for updates here all day. (And you can catch up on anything you missed yesterday here.)


8:41am ET: Conservative radio host Laura Ingraham took pointed and personal shots at Jeb Bush during her address to CPAC, including a reference about his wife Columba's reported large purchases of jewelry.
Joking that Bush could appeal to women voters, she added: "What woman does not like a man who gives her a blank check at Tiffany's?"
Ingraham, a staunch opponent of the immigration reforms Bush has favored, asked the crowd to raise their hands if they were skeptical of another Bush presidency, earning applause.
"Jeb and Hillary could run on the same ticket," she suggested later.

8:35am ET: Former House Speaker and onetime presidential candidate Newt Gingrich used his CPAC remarks to lambaste Hillary Clinton over reports that the Clinton Foundation has accepted millions of dollars from foreign governments, including several countries with complicated relationships with the United States.
"I am very uncomfortable when a former president or potential future president sits in a room with a dictator to get 10 or 15 or 20 million dollars and has a pleasant hour-long conversation, and we have no idea what they discussed," he said.
And he made a jab at Hillary Clinton's comment last year that she and her husband were "dead broke" after leaving the White House.
"It's clear to me that the Clinton Foundation is going to have to report in actual dollars every foreign contribution they've gotten, period," he said. "And that includes, by the way, travel, yachts, mansions. I mean, the Clintons have a remarkable capacity to surround themselves with a middle class world in order to overcome the absence of money from which they have suffered for so much of their life. "

8:00am ET: Here are some of the highlights from today's schedule:
8:40 am ET: Marco Rubio
9:00 am: Rick Perry
10:20 am: Rand Paul
12:20 pm: Rick Santorum
1:40 pm: Jeb Bush
4:20 pm: John Bolton


 
 
 GOP Readies Short-Term Homeland Security Fix
Congress is moving to pass a three-week stopgap funding bill to prevent a Department of Homeland Security shutdown for now, but lawmakers remain at odds about how to solve a long-standing impasse over immigration and the agency's budget in the long term.
The Senate is poised to approve a year-long DHS funding measure that does not include controversial add-ons that would curb President Barack Obama's immigration executive actions. But House leaders, facing the ire of conservatives who say they won't accept a bill that doesn't tackle the immigration issue, are instead floating a three-week extension of DHS funding that would give both sides more time to negotiate.

A House Democratic leadership aide said that there's "little to no support" for the short-term plan among Democratic members, saying that the minority party does not plan to "bail Speaker Boehner out" and offer sufficient votes to get the measure across the finish line. That means that House Speaker John Boehner will have to pass the short-term funding bill with mostly Republican support.
Without either a short-term or long-term bill to fund the agency, the department will run out of funds at midnight on Friday.
That would force a slowdown of the agency's crucial operations, DHS chief Jeh Johnson says. Although about 80 percent of the agency's workers would still be required to come to work, they would not be paid until Congress acts.

- Carrie Dann

 
 
 House GOP Floats Short-Term Fix for DHS Impasse
House Republicans are floating a plan to delay a possible shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security by voting on a short-term measure to keep the agency funded and continue their immigration fight into next month.
GOP House members met behind closed doors late Thursday to plot a plan forward, even as the Senate prepared to approve a "clean" DHS bill not tied to measures that would halt the president's executive actions on immigration.

Without some action to fund DHS, the agency will run out of money at midnight on Friday.
Conservatives decry the Senate's plan as a surrender to the White House, but Republicans in the House might support a short-term funding measure to avoid accusations of causing a DHS shutdown at a time of increased anxiety about terror threats against the United States.
"Hopefully tomorrow we will pass a three-week [stopgap bill] to avert a shutdown," said House Appropriations Chairman Hal Rogers. "And then we will hope that the Senate will go to conference with us and we will have an old fashioned conference."
A "conference" would merge the House and Senate bills into one compromise product -- something Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid says is a non-starter with his party.
A House Democratic leadership aide said that there's "little to no support" for the short-term plan among Democratic members, saying that the minority party does not plan to "bail Speaker Boehner out" and offer sufficient votes to get the measure across the finish line.
The proposal has resulted in heated rhetoric between both parties.
On the House floor late Thursday night, top Democrat Steny Hoyer of Maryland could be heard calling House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California a "coward" as McCarthy outlined the voting timeline.
One development giving momentum to the Republicans' idea of a weeks-long punt is the ongoing legal battle over Obama's moves to give millions of undocumented immigrants deportation relief. Earlier this month, a Texas judge ordered a temporary injunction preventing the government from implementing that plan; a Department of Justice appeal is pending.
The Senate appears ready to pass the "clean" bill as early as Friday after key opponents declined to slow-walk consideration of the legislation. Votes on the measure are slated for Friday morning.

"I think it's appropriate to move forward on the bill," Sen Jeff Sessions (R-AL) told reporters after a Senate Republican conference lunch, "But I'm not interested in delay merely for the sake of delay."
Sen Mark Kirk (R-IL) said this most recent fight should be the last time Republicans use a key funding bill to attempt to fight Obama's policies.
"I would say this battle should be the end of the strategy of attaching whatever you're upset about the president to a vital piece of government," Kirk told reporters. "We really, as a governing party, we got to fund DHS, and say to the House, 'Here's a straw so you can suck it up.'
Even if both chambers pass a short-term funding bill, the fight over the president's immigration actions - which some Republicans describe as a constitutional crisis - is sure to continue as immigration opponents seek an advantage.
But other Republicans are incredulous at the idea of a lapse in funding for DHS at a time of increased terror threats against the United States.
"It shows how off the rail the Republican Party is," Republican Rep. Peter King told MSNBC. "We're allowing Nancy Pelosi to be the spokeswoman for homeland security. That should be our issue. We're the ones who are the party of homeland security."

- Luke Russert, Alex Moe, Frank Thorp and Carrie Dann



 
 More from First Read: 
 
Unpacking CPACs First Day>
Boehner Asked If U.S. Security in Jeopardy, Says House Passed DHS Funding 6 Weeks Ago>
Loretta Lynch's Nomination for AG Post Moves a Step Forward>
Six Stories to Watch at CPAC>
Poll Shows GOP Leading on Foreign Policy, Dems on Image>

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