| | February 18, 2015 | |
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Jeb Bush on Wednesday is giving his first big foreign-policy speech since signaling his White House ambitions. And according to advanced excerpts of his remarks, he certainly sounds like a hawk -- in both describing his world views and criticizing the Obama administration. "I have doubts whether this administration believes American power is such a force. Under this administration, we are inconsistent and indecisive. We have lost the trust and the confidence of our friends. We definitely no longer inspire fear in our enemies," Bush is expected to say in his address to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, which begins at 12:30 pm ET. More: "The great irony of the Obama presidency is this: Someone who came to office promising greater engagement with the world has left America less influential in the world." And: "... I believe, fundamentally, that weakness invites war... and strength encourages peace."
But can another hawkish Bush exploit the Obama-Clinton foreign-policy weaknesses?
Now it's important to note that Bush's rhetoric isn't much different than what we've heard from other Republicans over the past few years -- Mitt Romney, John McCain, Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio, etc. The one exception here is Rand Paul (more on him below). What's noteworthy, of course, is that this rhetoric is coming from someone whose last name is Bush. With the U.S. economy continuing to improve, foreign policy is certainly a ripe place for Republicans to criticize the Obama administration -- and Hillary Clinton by association. Indeed, the fact that ISIS is now in Libya (a war of choice by the Obama White House and Clinton's State Department) is a real weakness. But the question is whether someone whose last name is Bush can exploit this Obama/Clinton weakness. In Jeb Bush's speech today, he goes out of his way to separate himself from his brother and father. "I love my father and my brother. I admire their service to the nation and the difficult decisions they had to make. But I am my own man - and my views are shaped by my own thinking and own experiences." But according to the excerpts, Jeb's rhetoric sounds a lot like Bush 43's. And that's a challenge for him.
Rand Paul set to announce WH intentions on April 7
Meanwhile, the less-hawkish 2016 Republican -- Rand Paul -- is eyeing April 7 as the date when he'll announce his presidential intentions, the New York Times writes. And MSNBC's Anthony Terrell confirmed the April 7 date. More from the Times: "An announcement in early April would afford Mr. Paul certain advantages with the Federal Election Commission calendar. April 1 is the beginning of a quarterly reporting period, and he would have almost that entire time to raise money toward what his advisers hope would be a strong initial total to demonstrate that he is a serious competitor. Once he announced, Mr. Paul would also be able to transfer into his presidential campaign any of the $2.9 million he had in his Senate campaign account at the end of 2014."
Chris Christie -- Dead Candidate Walking?
Quinnipiac is out with new 2016 polls looking at the swing states of Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia. Our biggest takeaway: Chris Christie performs worse against Hillary Clinton than the other Republicans in these states. Remember when Christie was supposed to be the ELECTABLE Republican? And as our colleague Perry Bacon wrote recently, "New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is facing growing skepticism from influential Republicans about his likely presidential run, with many in the party privately expressing doubts that he has any chance of winning the GOP nomination and some of Christie's former backers unwilling to say they will support his campaign.
Obama saying he'll wait until legal process is "settled" over his immigration action gives GOP an even bigger escape hatch in fight over DHS spending
Reacting to the Texas federal judge's decision to halt his executive action on immigration, President Obama said yesterday he disagreed with the decision and is appealing it. "I think the law is on our side and history is on our side. And we are going to appeal it." But he also said his administration was going to wait until the legal process was resolved. "We're not going to disregard this federal court ruling. The law is the law in this country, and we take things a step at a time. So we're not going to be actually taking applications in until this case is settled." As we wrote yesterday, the judge's ruling is an escape hatch for House Speaker John Boehner and congressional Republicans in the fight over DHS spending. And it looks like an even bigger escape hatch now that Obama is saying his administration is going to wait until the entire legal process is settled. It takes a considerable air out of the politics.
Obamacare enrollment for 2015: 11.4 million
The Obama administration announced yesterday that it counted 11.4 million Americans who either signed up or re-enrolled in federal or state-based exchanges under the federal health-care law. (Note: That number is likely to go down when you talked about PAID enrollment vs. those who only selected plans.) "The Affordable Care Act is working. It is working a little better than we anticipated. Certainly it is working a lot better than many of the critics talked about," Obama said in a video posted to Facebook. We've noted the statistical differences between last year and this year when it comes to the health-care law. But here's another difference: The enrollment story -- which was arguably the top political story this time a year ago -- now seems like a relative afterthought. Of course, one of the reasons why everyone seems to be keeping their powder dry here is the upcoming Supreme Court challenge to a key part of the law.
Kate Brown gets sworn as Oregon's newest governor, becoming nation's first bisexual governor
Finally, today is Kate Brown's first day as Oregon governor. She gets sworn in at 1:00 pm ET in Salem, OR.
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OBAMA AGENDA: Helping the Syrian rebels
The Wall Street Journal reports: "The U.S. has decided to provide pickup trucks equipped with machine guns and radios for calling in U.S. airstrikes to some moderate Syrian rebels, defense officials said. But the scope of any bombing hasn't been worked out-a reflection of the complexities of the battlefield in Syria."
"ISIS launched several waves of attacks in northern Iraq late Tuesday, engaging in close-quarters combat with Kurdish forces before being repelled by reinforcements and airstrikes, Kurdish and Iraqi security sources told NBC News. The jihadis attacked from several directions near the towns of Gewr and Makhmour, southwest of Erbil, the sources said."
The latest in Ukraine, from the New York Times: "President Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine said on Wednesday that Ukrainian forces were withdrawing from the embattled town of Debaltseve, a strategically important transportation hub where intense fighting has raged in recent days despite a cease-fire agreement signed last week. Mr. Poroshenko sought to cast the retreat in a positive light, but it was clearly a devastating defeat at the hands of Russian-backed separatists."
NBC News: "More than 11 million people signed up or renewed for health insurance on the state and federal exchanges this year, the White House announced Tuesday."
Per a release: "The Trade Benefits America Coalition has launched a digital and radio advertising campaign in select markets across the country, making the case for the benefits of trade and Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) to key audiences while members of Congress have returned home for the district work period."
OFF TO THE RACES: Jeb's advisers are familiar names from his brother's administration
BUSH: Reuters reports on the team that will be providing advice to Bush in the coming months: "The list includes people representing a wide spectrum of ideological views in the Republican Party, from the pragmatic to the hawkish. It includes James Baker, known for his pragmatism in key roles during the Reagan and George H.W. Bush presidencies, and former World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz, a hawk as deputy defense secretary who was an architect of George W. Bush's Iraq policy. Among others are two former secretaries of Homeland Security, Tom Ridge and Michael Chertoff, former national security adviser Stephen Hadley and a deputy national security adviser, Meghan O'Sullivan, as well as two former CIA directors, Porter Goss and Michael Hayden."
Msnbc.com's Steve Kornacki writes on the parallels between Jeb Bush's current strategy and the one his brother used when he grabbed control of the GOP 16 years ago - and how George W. Bush's presidency transformed the Republican Party in a way that could now make the Bush game plan unworkable.
POLITICO looks inside Bush's building of a "shock and awe" launch.
CLINTON: From POLITICO: "Despite widespread assumptions that Clinton has assembled a campaign juggernaut ready to be unveiled as soon as she makes her White House run official, the reality is that she has little more than a budding operation that's far from set-either in how the jobs will be structured or who will be in them."
"The Clinton Foundation has dropped its self-imposed ban on collecting funds from foreign governments and is winning contributions at an accelerating rate, raising ethical questions as Hillary Clinton ramps up her expected bid for the presidency,"writes the New York Times.
PAUL: The New York Times reports that Rand Paul is considering an April 7 launch for his presidential bid. "Only his family's doubts could change his mind at this point, said associates of the senator, who insisted on anonymity because Mr. Paul's plans had not yet taken final shape."
MSNBC's Anthony Terrell confirms the April 7 date.
RUBIO: The Hill finds that he's getting handily beaten by Bush in the endorsement game. "The former Florida governor has rounded up the firm backing of five members of the Florida GOP congressional delegation, and others are leaning in his direction. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who is also mulling a 2016 presidential run, only has one clear backer from the Sunshine State."
WALKER: NHJournal reports that Scott Walker has hired former two-time state Republican Party executive director Andy Leach and former Michigan Republican party political director Michael Bir.
The governor wants a 17 percent pay hike for state troopers.
And around the country...
FLORIDA: Debbie Wasserman Schultz is considering a Senate bid, POLITICO reports.
ILLINOIS: Rahm Emanuel's campaign is worried about how well he will do with black voters in his reelection campaign.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: John Bolton will meet with Scott Brown this week, reports NH1.com's Paul Steinhauser.
NEW YORK: The New York Times reports on how Mayor Bill de Blasio is trying to mend his relationship with city police.
Dan Freedman looks at Gov. Andrew Cuomo. "In Albany and statewide, it's a bleak winter for Gov. Andrew Cuomo. And nationally, the picture isn't much brighter. At home, Cuomo has been buffeted by the recent corruption arrest of now ex-Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, and continued criticism from his controversial decision to scrap his Moreland Commission panel investigating public corruption."
OREGON: Kate Brown will become the new governor of Oregon Wednesday after the resignation of John Kitzhaber.
PROGRAMMING NOTES.
*** Wednesday's "News Nation with Tamron Hall" line-up: Tamron Hall speaks with NBC News foreign correspondent Ayman Mohyeldin about the latest on ISIS, legal analyst Lisa Green about the American Sniper trial, Attorney and NBCnews.com contributor Raul Reyes about the Immigration ruling, and NBC meteorologist Domenica Davis about the frigid temps across the country.
*** Wednesday's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" line-up: NBC's Andrea Mitchell interviews Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, Rep. Adam Schiff, NBC's Keir Simmons, Anne Thompson and Charles Hadlock, the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza and Karen DeYoung, the Atlantic's Molly Ball and Financial Times U.S. Managing Editor Gillian Tett. |
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If congressional Republicans were hoping that a Texas judge's injunction on President Obama's immigration actions was going to change Democrats' tune when it comes to the House-passed DHS funding bill, they shouldn't hold their breath.
"Nothing changes," a Senate Democratic Leadership aide told NBC News.
At issue are the three failed attempts by Senate Republicans to bring up the House-passed legislation that not only funds DHS until the end of the fiscal year, but also curtails Obama's executive actions related to immigration.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has scheduled yet another vote on the motion for next Monday, when Congress gets back from their Presidents Day recess. The motion is set to fail again because Democrats are expected to unanimously oppose the measure, a move called a filibuster.
"This procedural ruling, in our opinion, is very unlikely to be upheld," Sen Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said in a statement. "But regardless of the outcome Democrats remain united in our belief that funding for the Department of Homeland Security should not be used as a ransom by Republicans, period."
Even moderate Democrats, whom Republicans have been targeting as possible 'Yes' votes on the motion to move forward with the House-passed bill, are saying the court ruling doesn't change anything. An aide for Sen Joe Manchin (D-WV) told NBC News that Manchin still believes funding for the DHS should be separate than the riders attached by the House.
House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) has repeatedly said it's up to Senate Democrats to allow for consideration of the House-passed bill in the Senate, or they will be responsible for the DHS shutting down at the end of the month. McConnell has said the House-passed bill is "stuck" in the Senate, and told reporters last week it's time for the House to pass another bill that can achieve the 60 votes needed to move forward in the Senate.
Funding for DHS is set to expire at midnight on February 27th if Congress fails to act. |
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Last night's news that a federal Texas judge issued a temporary injunction blocking implementation of President Obama's most recent executive action on immigration creates a possible escape hatch for congressional Republicans in the battle over funding for the Department of Homeland Security. With current DHS funding set to expire on Feb. 27 and with the GOP divided on how to proceed, Republicans could -- and we stress COULD -- decide, "Well, the courts are rebuking Obama over this action, so we don't need to anymore, and we can cleanly fund the Department of Homeland Security without attaching riders rolling back the president's executive actions." This is a scenario that the Washington Post's Greg Sargent laid out a week ago. But Sargent also said there's an important rub here: The Obama administration could quickly get the 5th Circuit to lift the injunction. As a result, Sargent wrote, conservatives "may respond - understandably - that it could be overturned on appeal. So Republicans must not blink in the drive to block Obama's actions in Congress, to be absolutely certain the dragon is dead."
Or does the 5th Circuit lock it shut?
Indeed, the New York Times writes that legal scholars believe the 5th Circuit could very well lift the injunction issued by Texas federal judge Andrew Hanen, who was appointed by George W. Bush and has been an outspoken critic of Obama's policies. "'Federal supremacy with respect to immigration matters makes the states a kind of interloper in disputes between the president and Congress,' said Laurence H. Tribe, a professor of constitutional law at Harvard. 'They don't have any right of their own.' The states' lawsuit quotes Mr. Obama as saying many times in recent years that he did not have authority to take actions as broad as those he ultimately took. Mr. Tribe said that argument was not likely to pass muster with appeals court judges. 'All of that is interesting political rhetoric," he said, 'but it has nothing to do with whether the states have standing and nothing to do with the law.'" Still, in the short term, the judge's ruling is a get-out-of-jail card for House Speaker John Boehner and congressional Republicans. Do they use it?
Boehner: "We will continue to follow the case as it moves through the legal process"
Well, right before our publication, Boehner issued a statement saying that Republicans will "continue to follow the case as it moves through the legal process" -- signaling that he doesn't take the Texas federal judge's ruling as the final word here. Boehner's full statement: "The president said 22 times he did not have the authority to take the very action on immigration he eventually did, so it is no surprise that at least one court has agreed. We will continue to follow the case as it moves through the legal process. Hopefully, Senate Democrats who claim to oppose this executive overreach will now let the Senate begin debate on a bill to fund the Homeland Security department."
Misunderstanding ISIS
As Congress is set to debate President Obama's authorization against ISIS, Graeme Wood in The Atlantic makes a persuasive case that the political world -- the Obama administration, congressional Republicans, and the foreign-policy community -- has a fundamental misunderstanding of the Islamic group. "Its rise to power is less like the triumph of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt (a group whose leaders the Islamic State considers apostates) than like the realization of a dystopian alternate reality in which David Koresh or Jim Jones survived to wield absolute power over not just a few hundred people, but some 8 million." More from Wood: "Peter Bergen, who produced the first interview with bin Laden in 1997, titled his first book Holy War, Inc. in part to acknowledge bin Laden as a creature of the modern secular world. Bin Laden corporatized terror and franchised it out. He requested specific political concessions, such as the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Saudi Arabia. His foot soldiers navigated the modern world confidently." In other words, who would have thought that Al Qaeda is/was a more political and pragmatic organization? But Wood argues that's the case when compared with ISIS.
Why Loretta Lynch's nomination might be in trouble
The snow in DC has cancelled President Obama's meeting today with newly confirmed Defense Secretary Ashton Carter. But here's something to chew on: Obama nominated Carter (in December) AFTER he nominated Loretta Lynch to succeed Eric Holder as U.S. attorney general (in November). And that's a big sign that Lynch's confirmation is no sure thing. The Hill: "President Obama's pick to serve as the next attorney general is having a hard time finding Republican supporters. To be confirmed by the Senate, attorney general nominee Loretta Lynch only needs four Republicans to support her nomination. But it is unclear where those votes will come from. Sen. Orrin Hatch (Utah) is the only Republican so far who has signaled his intention to vote for Lynch, though several others have spoken favorably about her."
Why the 2016 Senate contests will probably hinge on who wins the '16 presidential election
Finally, as Democrats and Republicans begin to clash over the upcoming 2016 Senate races, here's an important thing to keep in mind: Control over the Senate in 2016 will likely hinge on which party wins the presidential election. Indeed, in the 40 Senate contests since 2004 rated by the Cook Political Report as either a Tossup or a Lean race, 32 times (or 80%) the Senate contest went the same way as the presidential contest did in the same state. And that's particularly important when you consider that the 2016 Senate battlegrounds will be in Colorado (Bennet -D), Illinois (Kirk -R), Nevada (Reid - D), New Hampshire (Ayotte - R), North Carolina (Burr - R), Pennsylvania (Toomey - R), Wisconsin (Johnson - R), Florida (Rubio - R), and Ohio (Portman - R). An asterisk below marks the eight out of 40 races (20%) when the party that WON the presidential contest in a state LOST the competitive Senate contest.
2012 Toss Up or Lean contests
AZ (GOP won, Romney won, 54%-44%)
CT (Dems won, Obama won, 58%-41%)
FL (Dems won, Obama won, 50%-49%)
HI (Dems won, Obama won, 71%-28%
NM (Dems won, Obama won, 53%-43%)
*IN (Dems won, Romney won, 54%-44%)
ME (Dems/indie won, Obama won, 56%-41%)
MA (Dems won, Obama won, 61%-38%)
*MT (Dems won, Romney won, 55%-42%)
NE (GOP won, Romney won, 60%-38%)
*NV (GOP won, Obama won, 52%-46%)
*ND (Dems won, Romney won, 58%-39%)
PA (Dems won, Obama won, 52%-47%)
VA (Dems won, Obama won, 51%-47%)
WI (Dems won, Obama won, 53%-46%)
2008 Toss Up or Lean contests
*AK (Dems won, McCain won 59%-38%)
*LA (Dems won, McCaiin won, 59%-40%)
CO (Dems won, Obama won 54%-45%
GA (GOP won, McCain won, 52%-47%)
KY (GOP won, McCain won, 57%-41%)
NM (Dems won, Obama won, 57%-42%)
MN (Dems won, Obama won, 54%-44%)
MS (GOP won, McCain won, 56%-43%)
NH (Dems won, Obama won, 54%-45%)
NC (Dems won, Obama won, 50%-49%)
OR (Dems won, Obama won, 57%-40%)
2004 Toss Up or Lean contests
AK (GOP won, Bush won, 61%-36%)
*CO (Dems won, Bush won, 52%-47%)
FL (GOP won, Bush won, 52%-47%)
KY (GOP won, Bush won, 60%-40%)
LA (GOP won, Bush won, 57%-42%)
MO (GOP won, Bush won, 52%-46%)
NV (Dems won, Bush won, 50%-48%)
NC (GOP won, Bush won, 56%-44%)
OK (GOP won, Bush won, 66%-34%)
*PA (GOP won, Kerry won, 51%-48%)
SC (GOP won, Bush won, 58%-41%)
SD (GOP won, Bush won, 60%-38%)
WA (Dems won, Kerry won, 53%-46%
WI (Dems won, Kerry won, 50%-49%)
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OBAMA AGENDA: Blocked!
From the Austin-American Statesman: "A federal court blocked Monday an executive order by President Barack Obama that would have granted relief from deportation to millions of unauthorized immigrants. Texas Governor Greg Abbott announced the ruling just after 10:15 p.m. Monday night. Abbott filed the suit on Dec. 3 while he was still the state's attorney general, leading what would become a 26-state coalition opposed to Obama's order. The ruling, made by federal judge Andrew S. Hanen of the federal district court in Brownsville, prevents all applicable agencies from implementing any expansions to the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program."
More, from the New York Times: "Some legal scholars said any order by Judge Hanen to halt the president's actions would be quickly suspended by the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit in New Orleans. "Federal supremacy with respect to immigration matters makes the states a kind of interloper in disputes between the president and Congress," said Laurence H. Tribe, a professor of constitutional law at Harvard. "They don't have any right of their own."
The Washington Post looks at the 6 million Americans who could lose their insurance subsidies pending the outcome of the Supreme Court challenge to Obamacare.
The Wall Street Journal reports that a port worker slowdown is starting to cause problems for small businesses and auto makers.
Msnbc.com on Irin Carmon's exclusive interview with Ruth Bader Ginsburg: "The Roe v. Wade decision legalizing abortion isn't in danger of being overturned anytime soon, Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg told msnbc in a wide-ranging, exclusive interview. But Ginsburg warned that the abortion restrictions being enacted by states around the country are having an outsize impact on low-income women."
The New York Times reports on the Obama administration's efforts to counter propaganda from ISIS.
CONGRESS: That Farenthold story isn't going away
Today in the icky Blake Farenthold story, via Roll Call: "Two months after a discrimination lawsuit accused Rep. Blake Farenthold of creating a hostile, sexually charged work environment, the Texas Republican claims his former communications director was fired for not showing up to work and lying about the circumstances of her absence. In a detailed, 14-page response filed by attorneys from the Office of House Employment Counsel, Farenthold, 53, denied that he was attracted to 27-year-old staffer Lauren Greene or that he had the "sexual fantasies" and "wet dreams" Greene alleged in her complaint."
OFF TO THE RACES: Bush's Schiavo problem
BUSH: The AP reports on how Bush's role in the Terri Schiavo issue is becoming a 2016 problem. "As Bush moves toward a run for president in 2016, Michael Schiavo has re-emerged, promising to campaign against Bush and remind voters about the ex-governor's role in the matter. "I will be very active," Schiavo, a registered Republican, told The Associated Press in an interview. He said he plans to back Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton, should she run."
CHRISTIE: Chris Christie is preparing a series of New Hampshire town halls, hoping to capitalize on his blunt-talking appeal.
In the state this weekend, Christie acknowledged his "sometimes argumentative" style.
CLINTON: David Axelrod is annoying Clintonworld, writes The Hill: "The staunch Clinton supporters feel as though Axelrod, who is promoting his new book "Believer: My Forty Years in Politics," has taken unnecessary aim at Clinton and her team."
PERRY: In Sioux City Monday, Perry said he's learned from the mistakes of 2012: "I parachuted in here and I didn't give Iowans an opportunity to get to know who I was and talk to them about the issues. I will not make that mistake again."
He's bringing on four Iowans to help him organize in the state, the Des Moines Register reports.
PAUL: POLITICO writes: "[P]aul could face a significant challenge if he emerges from Iowa with a legitimate shot at the Republican nomination. Because experts say he gets many of his arguments about the Fed flat wrong. And the establishment wing of the GOP - backed by piles of Wall Street money - views Paul's approach to the Fed as dangerous and irresponsible."
WALKER: The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel: "Gov. Scott Walker's administration in May will skip more than $100 million in debt payments to balance the state's shaky budget, bringing the total such payment delays to more than $1.5 billion since 2001. The so-called "scoop and toss" maneuver belongs to a bipartisan - if not necessarily proud - tradition in Wisconsin budgeting going back to Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle and Republican Gov. Scott McCallum. The Legislature's nonpartisan budget office reported on the planned financial maneuver Monday, noting that like past delayed payments it will end up increasing costs for taxpayers in future years."
PROGRAMMING NOTES.
*** Tuesday's "News Nation with Tamron Hall" line-up: Tamron Hall speaks with NBC News foreign correspondent Ayman Mohyeldin about the latest on ISIS, legal analyst Lisa Green about the American Sniper trial, Alli Webb and Michael Landau about their company "The Drybar" as part of our Born in the USA series, and former SNL cast member Cheri Oteri about SNL's 40th anniversary show.
*** Tuesday's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" line-up: NBC's Andrea Mitchell interviews Steve Simon, Fmr. NSC Sr. Dir. of the Middle East for Pres. Obama, MSNBC's Mika Brzezinski, NBC's Kelly Cobiella, Ayman Mohyeldin and Anne Thompson, the AP's Julie Pace and USA Today's Alan Gomez.
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