| February 10, 2015 | |
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President Obama is set to ask Congress this week for new war powers to combat ISIS. Per the AP: "President Barack Obama is expected - as early as Tuesday - to ask Congress for new war powers, sending Capitol Hill his blueprint for an updated authorization for the use of military force to fight the Islamic State group. Haggling then begins on writing a new authorization to battle the Sunni extremists, who have seized territory in Iraq and neighboring Syria and imposed a violent form of Sharia law. That will lead to the first war vote in Congress in 13 years - one of the most important votes faced by members of the House and Senate." Despite Washington's political consensus to combat ISIS, passage won't be easy. The language will have to be wide enough to fight ISIS in Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere across the globe -- but also narrow enough not to be viewed as overly broad. Next, there are these questions: For how long does it last? How do you wind it down? Then there are the intra-party tensions (Dem hawks vs. Dem doves, GOP hawks vs. GOP doves). Finally, there's the political reality that it's never hard to make something hard. Remember in 2008 when Obama, John McCain, and much of Washington were on the same page in closing Gitmo? Well, it didn't take much to later turn that into a political football.
Both Obama and Netanyahu aren't backing down
Sticking with foreign affairs and national security, the Obama White House and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu aren't backing down from their feud over Netanyahu's speech to Congress in March -- two weeks before Israel's elections. Here was Obama at his news conference yesterday with German Chancellor Angela Merkel: "We have a practice of not meeting with leaders right before their elections, two weeks before their elections," Obama said. "As much as I love Angela, if she was two weeks away from an election she probably would not have received an invitation to the White House, and I suspect she wouldn't have asked for one." Ouch. Then came the word from Netanyahu that he isn't cancelling the speech. "At a time when there are those who are dealing with protocol and politics, a bad deal [with Iran] is being put together in Munich that will endanger Israel's existence," Netanyahu said while campaigning. Here's the deal: Right now, it would be more politically damaging -- at home -- to Netanyahu to back out of the speech than to give it. But bottom line: This speech (its timing, how it was announced) hasn't made ANYONE look good.
Jeb releases his emails from his days as Florida governor
This morning, Jeb Bush and his team unveiled a website containing 250,000 emailsfrom his time as Florida governor, as well as the first chapter of his new e-book, which chronicles his emails with Floridians. The Tampa Bay Times: "Today, Bush is releasing the first chapter of his e-book on a website containing a vast archive of emails from his time as governor - one that shows someone who got down in the weeds, constantly pestering staffers to 'fup,' or follow up please, as much as he muscled through a sweeping conservative vision for the state." More: "'My staff estimated I spent 30 hours a week answering emails, either from my laptop or BlackBerry, often while on the road,' Bush writes. 'The idea of this book, through the use of these emails, is to tell the story of a life of a governor. No day is like the one before it ... The unexpected became the expected.'"
But they don't appear to be ALL of his emails
The conspicuous push for transparency is intended as a clear contrast to some of the questions that dogged both Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton in their own past runs, but Democrats are quick to point out that there's a lot more where those emails came from; Bush has said that he received 550,000 emails on his private account and another 2.5 million on his public one.
Like sands through the hourglass, so are the days of our lives -- Clinton edition
Things you can always count on: The sun rises in the east, it's cold in February, and there's drama (real or imagined) surrounding the Clintons and their allies. The latest Clinton-related drama came yesterday, when Politico reported that Hillary ally David Brock resigned from the Democratic Super PAC Priorities USA in the wake of what Brock calls "an orchestrated political hit job" by rival Clinton allies against his own groups, American Bridge and Media Matters. Last night, Priorities USA and Brock tried to mend fences, with Priorities' Jennifer Granholm releasing a statement saying: "We take the concerns board member David Brock raises seriously and are working to address them. We've worked seamlessly with American Bridge and Correct the Record and we will continue that strong collaborative relationship." Brock issued his own statement: "After talking to several leaders of Priorities USA Action, I am confident they want to address the situation. I'm open to returning to the board and I share their desire to find a way to move forward." Folks, here's the real story: As Clinton appears to be the only true 2016 game in town for Democratic strategists and fundraisers, there is going to be drama over how all of these different Democrats get fed. With a weak DNC, the challenge for Clinton and her team is creating some kind of structure to ensure that everyone gets some feed at the money trough.
Full speed ahead for Rubio
In other 2016 news, Marco Rubio has lured a top New Hampshire operative who used to work for Mitt Romney -- Jim Merrill. It's the latest sign that Jeb Bush's emerging campaign isn't deterring Rubio from making his own moves. And Rubio needs to signal this to GOP donors. Bottom line: Republicans better start looking for options to run for Rubio's Senate seat in '16...
Senate Republicans ready to punt DHS funding bill back to the House GOP
Meanwhile, Senate Republicans appear to be ready to punt the task of passing legislation to fund the Department of Homeland Security back to the House -- after it became clear that Democrats would not allow the Senate to consider the House-passed funding bill, NBC's Frank Thorp reports. "I think we have to figure out what the House's next play probably is at this point," Sen. John Thune (R-SD), the Senate Republican Conference Chairman, told reporters Monday, "I don't know how many times we can have the same vote over and over again. At some point, we have to figure out what the next iteration of this big discussion is." Thune, Thorp adds, was referring to the three motions to move forward on the House-passed bill that all failed to get the 60 votes needed to pass after Democrats unanimously opposed the measures. Democrats don't appear to be willing to budge, calling instead for a clean funding bill, and Republicans now admit they need a Plan B. "All we can do is say we tried, and the House will have to pass something else," Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) told reporters, "We are in a box canyon on this, no doubt." More Flake: "We've brought it up three times now and the same result, so I just don't know what else we're supposed to do over here."
Oregon's attorney general opens investigation into scandal involving Gov. Kitzhaber and his fiancée
Finally, don't miss the news, per The Oregonian: "Oregon Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum announced Monday that she has opened an investigation into the allegations of public corruption against Gov. John Kitzhaber and Cylvia Hayes. Through her investigation, launched Friday, Rosenblum has the power to request any records, subpoena witnesses and bring charges against the Democratic governor and his fiancée."
Click here to sign up for First Read emails. Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone. Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter. Follow us @chucktodd, @mmurraypolitics, @carrienbcnews
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OBAMA AGENDA: Stressing unity over division
Obama and Merkel worked to stress unity on the West's overall Ukraine strategy even as Obama would not close the door on sending some lethal aid to the region.
From the AP: "President Barack Obama is expected - as early as Tuesday - to ask Congress for new war powers, sending Capitol Hill his blueprint for an updated authorization for the use of military force to fight the Islamic State group. Haggling then begins on writing a new authorization to battle the Sunni extremists, who have seized territory in Iraq and neighboring Syria and imposed a violent form of Sharia law."
The New York Times profiles Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore, who's fighting a federal judge's order to begin allowing same sex marriages.
China may be stepping up its role as a mediator in Afghanistan, something the Chinese have long resisted.
From the BBC: "Syria's President Bashar al-Assad says his government is receiving messages from the US-led coalition battling the jihadist group, Islamic State. Mr Assad told the BBC that there had been no direct co-operation since air strikes began in Syria in September. But third parties - among them Iraq - were conveying "information"."
The LA Times: "President Obama will soon roll out one of the most ambitious and controversial programs of his presidency, an effort to grant a reprieve from deportation to millions of adult immigrants living in the country illegally. With time short and stakes high, the Obama administration knows it cannot afford another debacle like 2013's botched introduction of the Affordable Care Act."
CONGRESS: It's 4th and 10, and Senate Republicans are set to punt
NBC's Frank Thorp: "Senate Republicans appear to be ready to punt the task of passing legislation to fund the Department of Homeland Security back to the House after it became clear that Democrats would not allow the Senate to consider the House-passed funding bill."
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid will undergo a second surgery this week in the attempt to restore full vision to his right eye, NBC's Frank Thorp also reports.
Per a release: "The Convention of States Action announces that former Senator Tom Coburn (R-OK) is joining the Convention of States Project as Senior Advisor. Since the 2015 legislative sessions began in January, 25 states have filed their Article V applications to call an amending convention of the states. Senator Coburn's insight and legislative wisdom will be invaluable to the national effort."
OFF TO THE RACES: Release the emails!
MSNBC's Benjy Sarlin looks at the Peter Kings, John Boltons, and Lindsey Grahams who might run for president, in part, to hammer Rand Paul on national security issues. "In interviews with msnbc, King and Bolton each made clear that Paul's rise within the party loomed large in their thinking. 'That really generated my concern,' said King, who has likened Paul to infamous Nazi sympathizer Charles Lindbergh. 'What he was appealing to the Republican Party, to me, would be disastrous policy wise and also politically.'"
BUSH: Bloomberg asks how long Jeb Bush will decline to engage with rivals before he hits back.
Here's the Tampa Bay Times on Bush's email release today.
And speaking of technology strategy, being called out for deleting tweets about "sluts" is probably not the best way to start off in your new job working for a GOP frontrunner.
CHRISTIE: Chris Christie told Iowans that his time in blue New Jersey prepared him to work with Congress. ""I'm not too blunt, I'm not too direct to be in Iowa or any place else in this country," Christie said. "Because what we need now in my opinion in this country more than anything else, is some blunt, direct straight talk to fix problems that that we've been avoiding for too long because we care more about the comfort of people's feelings than about telling the truth and fixing the problems that need to be fixed. I'm not going to shrink away from that ever.""
We learned last night that Christie is planning on attending the March 7 Iowa Agriculture Summit.
CLINTON: From POLITICO, yesterday: "David Brock on Monday abruptly resigned from the board of the super PAC Priorities USA Action, revealing rifts that threaten the big-money juggernaut being built to support Hillary Clinton's expected presidential campaign."
And/but: "A clash that threatened to fracture a network of independent groups mobilizing to back a Hillary Rodham Clinton presidential run was partially defused late Monday when liberal activist David Brock agreed to consider rejoining the board of a pro-Clinton super PAC," notes the Washington Post.
CRUZ: Ted Cruz has hired former Gingrich spokesman Rick Tyler.
JINDAL: POLITICO writes that Jindal calls his critics on the right and the left "elitist hacks who can't stand the idea of an Ivy League-educated, unapologetic conservative."
RUBIO: Jim Merrill, Mitt Romney's New Hampshire guru in 2008 and 2012, is signing on with Marco Rubio, the New York Times first reported.
And around the country...
ILLINOIS: "Gov. Bruce Rauner, the newly elected Republican who has often criticized public sector unions, took his first step toward curbing their power on Monday by announcing an executive order that would bar unions from requiring all state workers to pay the equivalent of dues."
OREGON: The Oregonian: "Oregon Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum announced Monday that she has opened an investigation into the allegations of public corruption against Gov. John Kitzhaber and Cylvia Hayes. Through her investigation, launched Friday, Rosenblum has the power to request any records, subpoena witnesses and bring charges against the Democratic governor and his fiancée."
PROGRAMMING NOTES.
*** Tuesday's "News Nation with Tamron Hall" line-up: Tamron Hall speaks with Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD), Dr. Lolita McDavid from UH Case University Hospitals regarding measles, Joe Hosey, author of Fatal Vows: The Tragic Wives of Sergeant Drew Peterson regarding Drew Peterson allegedly ordering a hit on the state prosecutor that put him away behind bars, and Fashion designer Cookie Johnson about her career and her message of empowering women through fashion.
*** Tuesday's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" line-up: NBC's Andrea Mitchell interviews former Ambassador Nicholas Burns, French Justice Minister Christiane Taubira, NBC's Pete Williams and Charles Hadlock, the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza and USA Today's Susan Page. |
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Citing "the spirit of transparency," Jeb Bush has posted a trove of emails from his tenure as Florida's governor on a new web site, JebBushEmails.com.
"I am posting the emails of my governorship here. Some are funny; some are serious; some I wrote in frustration. But they're all here so you can read them and make up your own mind," he writes on the site, which also includes the first chapter of a new e-book about his eight years leading the Sunshine State.
Bush says he spent 30 hours a week answering emails from constituents, especially after he made his personal email public.
The set of emails was previously obtained by news organizations late last year after public records requests, but Bush's move is meant to illustrate a tradition of communicating with constituents as well as a commitment to transparency - an issue that has tripped up past presidential candidates.
In the e-book, Bush paints his time as governor as the fulfillment of his "dream job."
"I loved being the governor of Florida," he wrote. "It was my dream job, and that feeling never changed, not in eight years. Not through the hurricanes, budget debates, or even hanging chads. We faced some huge challenges: An education system that was not serving our children well; a broken foster care system; over taxation and government regulations that were crushing our families and small businesses; and an unfocused state budget fat with wasteful spending."
The web site's contents are available in both English and Spanish.
- Carrie Dann
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| NBC's Mark Murray and Carrie Dann discuss how the most important person in the world is arguably German Chancellor Angela Merkel when it comes to the high-stakes Ukraine debate, and how she's in Washington today to meet with President Obama. |
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When it comes to the renewed hostilities in eastern Ukraine, the most important person in the world is arguably German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and she's in Washington today to meet with President Obama. Why is Merkel so important? Because Germany is the key actor in European pressure on Vladimir Putin's Russia. And right now, Merkel is against sending arms to bolster Ukraine's fight against the Russia-aided separatists. On "Meet the Press" yesterday, Secretary of State John Kerry refused to say that the U.S. would be sending military assistance to Ukraine. "Well, I'm not going to go into precisely what items are going to be provided to Ukraine. But I have no doubt that additional assistance of economic kind and other kinds will be going to Ukraine. And we do so understanding that there is no military solution. The solution is a political, diplomatic one." But what we can tell you is that the Obama White House favors it; indeed, this is the rare issue where Republican hawks and the White House are actually united. The dissenter is Merkel, and she is meeting with Obama today. The two hold a news conference at 11:40 am ET.
Kerry: This is put-up-or-shut-up time in the Iran nuclear talks
In his "Meet the Press" appearance, Kerry made this other news: The United States won't extend its nuclear talks with Iran unless there are broad outlines for an agreement. "Well, the only chance I can see of an extension at this point in time would be that you really have the outlines of the agreement," he said. "But if we're not able to make the fundamental decisions that have to be made over the course of the next weeks, literally, I think it would be impossible to extend." In other words, this is put-up-or-shut-up time. And this is the one area where congressional pressure (despite the White House's public complaints) has made a difference. Democratic Iran hawks like Senate Foreign Relations ranking member Bob Menendez (D-NJ) have said they'll hold off on their Iran sanctions legislation until late March. So that late March date appears to be true deadline.
Good news and bad news for Jeb in New Hampshire
In 2016 news, a Bloomberg poll released on Sunday had Jeb Bush in the lead in New Hampshire at 16% among likely GOP primary voters, followed by Rand Paul at 13%, Scott Walker at 12%, Chris Christie at 10%, and Mike Huckabee and Ben Carson tied at 6%. So that's the good news for Jeb -- he's leading in New Hampshire (compared with his early poll position in Iowa). The bad news for Jeb -- his overall fav/unfav in New Hampshire (among general-election voters) is upside down at 35%-50%. Folks, as Mitt Romney will attest, fav/unfav matters. Unless your name is Rick Scott and you have hundreds of millions of your own money to spend, it is very hard to win a general when your fav/unfav is in the negative territory.
Hillary has anew campaign team, little to no intra-party opposition. But will SHE be any different?
Hillary Clinton has a different campaign team (as she's lured key parts of Obama World). She also is in a MUCH DIFFERENT place than she was in than 2008 (given that she'd as a quasi-incumbent with little to no intra-party opposition). But theWashington Post's Dan Balz asks a great question: What about her? Is she any different? "She is sending signals that she accepts that this campaign must be different than the last. But the answer to what kind of candidate she will be rests squarely on her shoulders - and remains to be answered," Balz writes. And if Sunday's New York Times piece -- on the more than 200 policy experts giving her advice on an economic message -- is any indication, then she still has some work to do on this front. "Although people close to Mrs. Clinton say she has not yet settled on a specific platform, she is expected to embrace several principles. They include standard Democratic initiatives like raising the minimum wage, investing in infrastructure, closing corporate tax loopholes and cutting taxes for the middle class. Other ideas are newer, such as providing incentives to corporations to increase profit-sharing with employees and changing labor laws to give workers more collective bargaining power," the Times says.
As another liberal group urges Warren to run, here's the reason why Hillary won't get a primary challenge -- because she continues to hug Obama
Meanwhile, even though Elizabeth Warren has said she's not running for president -- in either the present or future tense -- another liberal organization is asking her to run. And this time, it's from Hillary's backyard. The New York Times: "Leaders of New York's Working Families Party on Sunday urged Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts to seek the Democratic nomination for president next year, formally calling on her to enter the 2016 race for the White House." Despite this news, the biggest reason why Hillary is unlikely to receive a serious primary challenge (from either Warren or Vice President Biden) is that she has hugged President Obama at every opportunity. And that prevents a primary challenge. If Hillary ends up in public split with Obama, she can do it in the general -- but there's no reason to do it now.
Clinton up by 41 points in New Hampshire
Speaking of Clinton and Warren, the aforementioned Bloomberg poll shows Clinton leading Warren by 41 points in New Hampshire, 56%-15%, with Biden and Bernie Sanders tied at 8% each.
London Calling, Part 2
The latest potential 2016er to visit London is Scott Walker, who will be in city from today through Friday. So far, there is just one event that is open to the press --Walker's talk at Chatham House on Feb. 11.
Shades of George Wallace?
Finally, don't miss the news out of Alabama. "In a dramatic show of defiance toward the federal judiciary, Chief Justice Roy S. Moore of the Alabama Supreme Court on Sunday night ordered the state's probate judges not to issue marriage licenses to gay couples on Monday, the day same-sex marriages were expected to begin here," theNew York Times writes, adding: "His argument has deep resonance in a place where a governor, George Wallace, stood in a doorway of the University of Alabama in 1963 in an unsuccessful bid to block its federally ordered integration."
Click here to sign up for First Read emails. Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone. Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter. Follow us @chucktodd, @mmurraypolitics, @carrienbcnews
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