| February 5, 2015 | |
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One takeaway from Jeb Bush's speech in Detroit yesterday is that he's continuing to borrow a page from his brother's playbook in 2000. The good news: It was a successful playbook, especially during prosperous times under a Democratic administration. (After all, it's not every day when the opposition party captures the White House when the unemployment rate is 3.9%.) The bad news: It's George W. Bush's playbook.
The good news: That's worked before
In 2000, George W. Bush had a simple formula in asking American voters to put Republicans in the White House, despite the boom times under Bill Clinton's two terms in office: 1) acknowledge the state of the economy, 2) say you're going to change what the country didn't like during the Clinton years, and 3) offer a comforting (and non-threatening) change. "After all of the shouting, and all of the scandal; after all of the bitterness and broken faith, we can begin again," W. Bush said in his 2000 convention speech. He added that he wanted to "put conservative values and conservative ideas into the thick of the fight for justice and opportunity. This is what I mean by compassionate conservatism."
"Right to Rise" = "Compassionate Conservatism"?
Jeb Bush largely followed the same formula in his speech yesterday. While the current state of the U.S. economy isn't where it was in 1999-2000, Jeb acknowledged the recovery. "It is true enough that we've seen some recent and welcome good news on the economy. But it's very little, and it's come very late." Then he reminded his audience what Americans might not like during the Obama years. "Six years after the recession ended, median incomes are down, households are, on average, poorer. And millions of people have given up looking for a job altogether." And then he offered his own vision of compassionate conservatism. "We believe that every American and in every community has a right to pursue happiness. They have a right to rise."
The bad news: There's a record from 2001-2008
The shortcoming of following his brother's playbook came with this line: "I don't think the U.S. should settle for anything less than 4% growth a year -- which is about twice our current average." Yet what was the GDP growth during his brother's presidency? Less than 2%. And of course, that presidency ended with this country's biggest downturn since the Great Depression. So that's the potential danger for Bush if he becomes the Republican Party's general-election nominee. We can't predict what the next two years will look like, but it's very possible to see this message coming from Democrats in 2016: "You put another Bush in the White House, and you'll get another economic downturn." But during the Q&A after his speech, Bush said that he was his own man. "I know for a fact that if I'm going to be successful going beyond the consideration [of running for president], then I'm going to have to do it on my own." Interestingly, when asked after his speech if he'd pursue big tax cuts -- like his brother's 2001 and 2003 tax cuts -- or those targeted solely to boost family wages, Bush was non-committal. "More to come on that. Stay tuned," he told MSNBC's Benjy Sarlin.
Another observation from Bush's speech
Jeb isn't pandering to the right: But one other thing was truth from Jeb's speech: He is NOT going to pander to the right. He is running a general-election message, not one targeted to just GOP audiences. "I know some in the media think conservatives don't care about the cities," he said. "But they are wrong. We believe that every American and in every community has a right to pursue happiness... So I say: Let's go where our ideas can matter most, where the failures of liberal government are most obvious. Let's deliver real conservative success."
Obama White House communications director to join Hillary's campaign
The other big campaign news yesterday was the New York Times' scoop that Obama White House Communications Director Jennifer Palmieri will be leaving to join Hillary Clinton's emerging presidential campaign. Why it's important: It's the latest sign that Clinton is trying to fix the big mistake from her 2008 campaign. And on top of that list was press relations. While press relations between the media and the White House have hardly been a hallmark over the past six years, Palmieri is considered one of the most professional and popular communications operatives in the Democratic Party. To recap: Hillary is replacing Mark Penn with Obama pollster Joel Benenson, and she's tapping into the Obama administration to lead her communications team. Hillary isn't running away from Obama; let's not pretend she is.
Rand Paul's bad week
We've commented on Chris Christie's rough week. But you can argue that Rand Paul has had even a tougher one. There was his comment (and then reversal) on vaccines. There was his testy exchange with a CNBC interviewer. And then came this National Journal article yesterday: "One of Paul's two top Iowa operatives, A.J. Spiker, is so deeply disliked and mistrusted by so much of the Iowa Republican establishment that party activists, officials and strategists say he is damaging Paul's credibility in the state." Ouch. And folks, we haven't even gotten to Paul's father yet.
Scott Walker takes a risk with his education cuts
NBC's Leigh Ann Caldwell writes that Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker's $300 million cuts to the University of Wisconsin System could be problematic for the possible 2016 presidential candidate. "At home, it's highly controversial, receiving aggressive opposition from the students of the 26 two- and four-year universities and their 39,000 employees. Nationally, it is sure to be scrutinized and quite probably turned into an aggressive line of against the governor. The faculty at the largest school in the state, UW-Madison, has already unanimously passed a resolution saying the cuts will 'diminish the quality, breadth and access to education for Wisconsin residents,' and Chancellor Rebecca Blank called the cuts 'too large for the system to absorb.'" Our take: Remember that higher education is often a bipartisan issue -- there are a lot of proud University of Wisconsin Democratic alums, but also Republican ones, too.
The changing demographics in the Sunbelt
On Monday, National Journal published a piece by John Judis arguing that Republicans could very well hold the advantage heading into 2016 (due to Democrats' declining performance with white working-class and middle-class voters). But yesterday, it ran a separate article by Ron Brownstein noting the profound demographic changes in the Sunbelt states of Florida (where white eligible voters have declined from 82% in 1980 to 67% in 2012 -- and could be 64% in 2016), North Carolina (where white voters have dropped from 79% in '80 to 70% in '12 -- and could be 68% in '16), and Virginia (where white voters have declined from 82% in '80 to 70% in '12 -- and could be 68% in '16). Brownstein's bottom line: "If Republicans can't hold North Carolina (with 15 Electoral College votes) and recapture at least Florida (with 29 EC votes), if not Virginia (with 13 EC votes) as well, they will likely face a very difficult path to an Electoral College majority."
Tennessee's legislature appears to have killed the state's Medicaid expansion
Don't miss this story out Tennessee: The state legislature looks to have killed Gov. Bill Haslam's effort to expand Medicaid in the Volunteer State. "After watching fellow Republicans kill his proposal to extend health insurance coverage to 280,000 low-income Tennesseans in a special session, a frustrated Gov. Bill Haslam said Wednesday the need is still there but he sees no immediate way forward." It's a reminder that the conservative firewall against the federal health-care law isn't with Republican governors; it's with GOP state legislatures. And this reminder will be important if the U.S. Supreme Court rules that states on the federal exchange (read: GOP states) can no longer give subsidies to qualified individuals. The GOP governors in these states might want to apply a fix. But will their GOP legislatures follow them?
Largest Oregon newspaper calls for Kitzhaber to resign
Lastly, it's not every day that a state's newspaper calls on a sitting governor - who was JUST re-elected last year - to resign. But that's what the Oregonian is calling forregarding Gov. John Kitzhaber (D). "John Kitzhaber must resign," the paper says. Wow.
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OBAMA AGENDA: Jordan carries out new airstrikes against ISIS
Breaking overnight, from the AP: "Jordanian fighter jets have carried out new air strikes, the military said Thursday, a day after the country's king vowed to wage a "harsh" war against Islamic State militants who control parts of neighboring Syria and Iraq. The army statement did not say which country was targeted. Jordan is part of a U.S.-led military coalition that has bombed IS targets in both countries since last fall, but until now Jordanian warplanes are only known to have carried out raids in Syria."
From the New York Times: "A still-classified section of the investigation by congressional intelligence committees into the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks has taken on an almost mythic quality over the past 13 years - 28 pages that examine crucial support given the hijackers and that by all accounts implicate prominent Saudis in financing terrorism. Now new claims by Zacarias Moussaoui, a convicted former member of Al Qaeda, that he had high-level contact with officials of the Saudi Arabian government in the prelude to Sept. 11 have brought renewed attention to the inquiry's withheld findings, which lawmakers and relatives of those killed in the attacks have tried unsuccessfully to declassify."
"French President François Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are set to travel to Kiev on Thursday afternoon and to Moscow on Friday in an emergency effort to craft a new plan to stop the escalating violence in Eastern Ukraine," writes the Wall Street Journal.
A Pentagon think tank believes that Vladimir Putin has Asperger's syndrome, USA Today reports.
The current FDA commissioner is on her way out, writes the Wall Street Journal.
Alex Moe and Frank Thorp report that some Democrats are considering skipping next month's address by Benjamin Netanyahu.
The government employee who operated the drone that crashed on the White House property may be charged, notes the New York Times.
CONGRESS: Bipartisan lunch
Senators had a bipartisan lunch on Wednesday, but the happy talk didn't change a lot on Capitol Hill.
Yes, Aaron Schock will pay for those Downton Abbey-esque renovations in his office.
OFF TO THE RACES: Jeb's focus on the poor
BUSH: POLITICO notes how much Jeb Bush is trying to separate himself from Mitt Romney by focusing on the poor.
The AP notes that George P. Bush is headlining big rallies on issues that have little to do with his gig as land commissioner.
The Washington Post's Dan Balz muses on whether Bush can make it through the primary process.
CLINTON: Jennifer Palmieri is leaving the White House to join the Clinton team,writes the New York Times.
PERRY: The Washington Post: "Former Texas governor Rick Perry on Thursday will announce that he has recruited more than 80 major donors, including some of the biggest bundlers in Republican politics, to aid his efforts as he prepares for a likely 2016 presidential campaign."
WALKER: The Wisconsin governor also has a dense network of donors to tap, notes the Washington Post.
WARREN: The Boston Globe looks at the earnest - and quite possibly pointless - efforts of pro-Warren organizers in Iowa.
And around the country...
ARIZONA: Will Kyrsten Sinema challenge John Mccain?
CALIFORNIA: Gov. Jerry Brown is open to eliminating all non-medical exemptions to vaccinations, writes the LA Times.
ILLINOIS: New Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner is backing local "right to work" laws.
OREGON: A major newspaper is calling for Gov. John Kitzhaber to resign in light of new revelations that his fiancée failed to disclose major consulting payments.
PROGRAMMING NOTES.
*** Thursday's "News Nation with Tamron Hall" line-up: Tamron Hall speaks with LA Times Beirut Bureau Chief Patrick McDonnell about ISIS execution of a Jordanian pilot, Carl Krawitt, a man about measles and vaccinating children, Miami trial attorney Michael Grieco about the Aaron Hernandez trial, Rail safety expert Larry Mann on the Metro North crash in NY, and Attorney John Burris regarding The Eric Garner grand jury files that may be released today
*** Thursday's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" line-up: NBC's Andrea Mitchell interviews Ambassador Michael McFaul, Ret. General Barry McCaffrey, Newsweek contributor and "Panic Virus" author Seth Mnookin, USA Today's Ray Locker, NBC's Tom Costello and Pete Williams, the AP's Julie Pace and the Washington Post's Jonathan Capehart.
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Some high-profile Democrats still aren't saying if they'll attend a March 3 congressional address by Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu amid a partisan debate over whether the speech represents a breach of protocol.
Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California and Dick Durbin of Illinois both told reporters Wednesday that they're considering skipping the speech, accusing Republicans and Netanyahu of using the address for political gain.
"I've heard some colleagues are very concerned by it, and I'm troubled by it," Durbin said. "I just think it's a serious mistake by the Speaker and by the Prime Minister."
House Speaker John Boehner extended the invitation to Netanyahu without consulting the White House, which administration officials say was a breach of long-standing protocol. President Barack Obama will not meet with the prime minister while he is in the United States because of the visit's close proximity to the Israeli election.
White House spokesman Josh Earnest said Wednesday that Vice President Joe Biden's schedule is not yet set for the week of the speech.
At the Capitol, Feinstein said that she's concerned that the speech will not only be seen as bad form within the United States but that it could be bad for Israel.
"My concern is that it's obviously political and it uses the backdrop of the United States House of Representatives and the Senate, and the House, two weeks before a political campaign and violates all the protocol that's always existed in terms of working this out with the President," Feinstein told reporters. "And I don't think that helps Israel."
Israeli Ambassador Ron Dermer was on the Hill Wednesday morning meeting with a handful of Jewish House Democrats. And Israeli Speaker Yuli-Yoel Edelstein met separately with House leaders from both sides of the aisle.
Other Democrats have confirmed that they will attend the address, although some say that's not an indication that they support Boehner's move to invite the prime minister unilaterally.
Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi has called Boehner's invite to Netanyahu "not appropriate" and said it "could send the wrong message in terms of giving diplomacy a chance" in regards to Iran.
But her spokesman told NBC News: "The Leader attends every Joint Meeting and, of course, will attend should this speech take place."
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid has also said he would attend, but said the decision not to is a "personal decision."
Republicans have criticized the suggestion that Democrats might pass on attending the speech.
"I want to hear from Bibi. You may not agree with me, but you should want to hear from him too," Sen Lindsay Graham (R-SC) said when asked about senators possibly boycotting the speech, "I think it's a mistake."
- Carrie Dann contributed
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Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush acknowledged Wednesday that his famous last name will be "an interesting challenge" as he embarks on a likely 2016 presidential run, saying that if he's going to make his case to the American people, "I'm going to have to do it on my own."
In a question-and-answer session after remarks at the Detroit Economic Club, Bush spoke candidly about public views of his father, former President George H.W. Bush, and his brother, George W. Bush.
The elder Bush brother called his father "the greatest man alive" and said that "I love my brother, and I think he's been a great president."
"It doesn't bother me a bit to be proud of them and love them" he added. "But I know for a fact that if I'm going to be successful going beyond the consideration [of running for president], then I'm going to have to do it on my own."
Asked about the crowded GOP field, Bush said that he hopes to avoid intra-party "food fights" and suggested that Republicans will have more "discipline" in 2016 because of the high stakes of the race.
"Politics is chaotic," he added. "The idea that there's some smoke-filled room where big dogs and women who have all this power decide that who's going to be what, that was gone a long time ago," he said, characterizing the current political process as a kind of "wild west."
The comments came after Bush delivered remarks focused on economic mobility, saying that "the opportunity gap is the defining issue of our time."
"The recovery has been everywhere but in the family paychecks. The American Dream has become a mirage for far too many," he said. "So the central question we face here in Detroit and across America is this: Can we restore that dream -- that moral promise -- that each generation can do better?"
And he dismissed the Obama administration's claims of a robustly rebounding economy, saying recent gains have been "very little and ... very late."
Democrats offered a rebuttal to Bush's speech by noting that he opposed the auto bailout. "Just a couple years ago Jeb Bush was asked by Charlie Rose if he supported the President's decision to rescue General Motors. Without hesitation, he responded: 'I don't. I don't.' You don't?" wrote Lon Johnson, the chair of the Michigan Democratic Party.
-Carrie Dann
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NBC's Mark Murray and Carrie Dann discuss how successful presidential candidates just don't have to be excellent fundraisers, compelling speakers, and competent debaters-they must be able to stay on message. |
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