| March 2, 2015 | |
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Two months into their control of both chambers of Congress, Republicans have little to show for their majorities -- except for yet another embarrassing failed vote. House Republicans' inability to pass a measure to keep the Department of Homeland Security open for a mere three weeks resulted in a last-minute effort by the Senate and House to extend the funding for one more week, which means we're now back to where we started. As we've written, congressional Republicans have picked as many fights (over immigration, DC's pot legalization, Loretta Lynch's nomination to be U.S. attorney general) as legislation they've passed that has become law (the Clay Hunt SAV Act, terrorism risk insurance reauthorization, and Friday's one-week DHS extension). This isn't the first two months of GOP congressional control that Republicans envisioned or even promised. Governing is never easy, especially during a time of divided government (with Democrats in charge of the executive branch and Republicans the legislative branch. But Republicans so far have taken a hard job and made it even more difficult.
A possible way out of the DHS fight -- via House Democrats
Yet Roll Call writes that there's a possible way out of this DHS-funding impasse, and it's via House Democrats. "Under current rules, any House Democrat may be able to force a vote on a clean DHS funding measure by making a privileged motion the House recede from its previous position and concur in the Senate amendment. The Senate voted to amend the House-passed DHS funding bill - with immigration policy riders - and replace it with a 'clean,' six-month spending bill. The House, in turn, voted to 'disagree' with the Senate's amendment to the House's proposal, sending the bill back across the Rotunda and requesting a conference committee. Under clause four of House Rule XXII ... 'When the stage of disagreement has been reached on a bill or resolution with House or Senate amendments, a motion to dispose of any amendment shall be privileged.' In other words, any House lawmaker could take to the floor and move the House concur with the Senate bill." If all 188 House Democrats voted for such a measure, you'd only need 29 House Republicans to reach the magic 217 number. Regarding today's Hill action, NBC's Frank Thorp reports that the cloture motion on the House-passed measure to go to conference is scheduled for 5:30 pm today, and is expected to fail as Democrats are expected to oppose it.
A busy week in politics
There's plenty of political news this week -- the aforementioned return to the battle over DHS funding and immigration, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's address to Congress on Tuesday, the Supreme Court's oral arguments in King vs. Burwell on Wednesday, and the aftermath of the weekend's CPAC and Club for Growth cattle calls. For more on those subjects....
Breaking down the weekend's CPAC straw poll
By now, you probably know that Rand Paul won Saturday's CPAC straw poll -- making it the FIFTH time in the last six years when a Paul (either Rand or Ron) has won the straw poll. (So take the results with a grain of salt.) Paul was the first choice of 26% of straw-poll voters, followed by Scott Walker at 21%, Ted Cruz at 12%, Ben Carson at 11%, and Jeb Bush at 8%. Yet maybe more interesting in the straw poll were the results on the issues:
- 83% want to repeal the health-care law;
- 37% want to deport undocumented immigrants back to their home countries, and another 27% say that they should be encouraged to return to their home countries before applying for citizenship (essentially the Romney 2012 position);
- by comparison, just a combined 29% say that undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay in the U.S. and apply for either citizenship or legal status;
- 58% say they would never support a Republican nominee who supports Common Core;
- And 41% believe marijuana should be legalized for recreational and medical use.
Now not all Republican voters are CPAC conference-voters (a whopping 50% were 25 or younger, which probably explains the marijuana results). But it does show where lots of conservative voters stand.
NBC/WSJ poll shows Israel has already become a partisan issue
For those worried that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech to Congress on Tuesday is making Israel/Netanyahu a partisan issue -- between Democrats and Republicans -- an NBC/WSJ poll released yesterday shows that's exactly what's happening. Per the poll, nearly half of American voters -- 48% -- say that congressional Republicans should not have invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address Congress on Tuesday without first notifying President Barack Obama. By contrast, 30% believe the invitation was fine, and another 22% don't know enough to say either way. Not surprisingly, the issue breaks along partisan lines, with 66% of Democrats saying Republicans shouldn't have invited Netanyahu without first notifying the president, compared with just 28% of Republicans who say that. Israel remains popular with Americans, the poll also finds: 47% of voters view it positively, versus 17% who have a negative reaction. But among Republicans, it's 66%-12%; among Democrats, it's 29%-21%. And Netanyahu has a 30% positive-17% negative rating in the poll -- up from 24% positive-15% negative a year ago. Yet once again, that largely breaks along partisan lines, with 49% of GOP voters holding a positive opinion of Netanyahu, versus just 12% of Democrats.
Young vs. old divide on Israel
The NBC/WSJ poll also shows a significant age difference when it comes to views of Israel. Older Americans are fans; younger American aren't as much.
Israel's favorable/unfavorable rating among those ages 18-34
31% positive
22% negative
Among those 35-44:
44% positive
23% negative
Among 45-54:
50% positive
12% negative
Among 55-64:
54% positive
13% negative
Among 65+
61% positive
14% negative
Your big tell where the King vs. Burwell politics stand
If you wanted to see where the politics stand of the Supreme Court possibly gutting the health-care law in King vs. Burwell, look no further than this Washington Post op-ed by GOP Sens. Orrin Hatch, Lamar Alexander, and John Barrasso. In it, the three senators stress they will propose providing financial assistance to Americans getting subsidies on the federal exchange "for a transitional period. It would be unfair to allow families to lose their coverage, particularly in the middle of the year." Two things here: One, Republicans are now acknowledging the hardship of an estimated 9 million Americans losing out on nearly $30 billion in tax credits and cost-sharing reductions by 2016. Two, we can't envision a scenario where Congress actually approves of the Hatch-Alexander-Barrasso plan. If John Boehner can't get the votes to fund DHS for THREE WEEKS, we're pretty sure that Congress would be able to keep the Obamacare subsidies alive if Congress strikes them down.
The week's other big Supreme Court case
Finally, speaking of the Supreme Court, don't miss TODAY's oral arguments when it comes to redistricting. Politico: "The Supreme Court on Monday will hear arguments that it's unconstitutional for a state" -- Arizona -- "to isolate its legislature from the redistricting process, citing the federal constitution's Election Clause. And if the court sides with the plaintiffs, it could upend political districts and election laws from coast to coast before 2016." In other words, it could deal a blow to states like California that have decided to use independent commissions to draw legislative districts.
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OBAMA AGENDA: Making the case on Iran
The New York Times on how Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to the U.S. is causing problems for Jewish Democrats: "[T]he Boehner-Netanyahu alliance has done something that larger foreign policy crises have not: It has led to the open distinction between support for the State of Israel and allegiance to politicians who lead it."
And, the paper reports, today is an important day for the administration making its case on Iran: "President Obama and two of his top national security officials will make their case publicly on Monday for a diplomatic agreement with Iran to prevent that nation from acquiring a nuclear weapon, one day before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel is to address Congress to denounce such a deal."
From the AP: " Backed by allied Shiite and Sunni fighters, Iraqi security forces on Monday began a large-scale military operation to recapture Saddam Hussein's hometown from the Islamic State extremist group, state TV said, a major step in a campaign to reclaim a large swath of territory in northern Iraq controlled by the militants."
John Kerry will defend Israel at a U.N. meeting in Geneva, writes Reuters.
"The Justice Department has nearly completed a highly critical report accusing the police in Ferguson, Mo., of making discriminatory traffic stops of African-Americans that created years of racial animosity leading up to an officer's shooting of a black teenager last summer, law enforcement officials said," reports the New York Times.
CONGRESS: Behind the scenes of Friday's drama
POLITICO goes behind the scenes of Friday's drama on Capitol Hill: "Republicans had hoped pressure would build on recalcitrant Senate Democrats to ultimately rebel against Obama and force him to capitulate - or at least prompt them to negotiate a compromise. That didn't happen. They had hoped more public attention to the issue might be spawned by a new outside event, such as more migrant children appearing at the southern border. That didn't happen. And they had hoped that more time would give their party a fresh opportunity to settle on a coordinated and coherent legislative response to the president. But that certainly didn't happen."
Per Roll Call, here's a possible escape hatch for Boehner: "Clause four of House Rule XXII (not to be confused with the more-often cited Senate Rule XXII) provides: "When the stage of disagreement has been reached on a bill or resolution with House or Senate amendments, a motion to dispose of any amendment shall be privileged."As the Congressional Research Service explains, "A chamber enters the stage of disagreement by formally agreeing to a motion or a unanimous consent request that it disagrees to the position of the other chamber, or that it insists on its own position." In other words, any House lawmaker, arguing that a conference scenario is moot and won't be resolved before the clock runs out on the current extension of DHS funding, could take to the floor and move that the House recedes from its previous position and concurs in the Senate amendment."
The Chicago Sun-Times: "Rep. Aaron Schock, R-Ill., used taxpayer money to pay for a private plane to travel from Peoria to Chicago for the Bears-Vikings game on Nov. 16, the Chicago Sun-Times has learned. And a Sun-Times examination of House disbursement records and campaign finance reports suggests that Schock used taxpayer money to help underwrite a September trip to New York, where a political action committee he controls spent $3,000 for Global Citizen Festival concert tickets."
OFF TO THE RACES: WSJ: Clinton's launch -- as expected -- is likely to come in April
BUSH: The Washington Post reports on how Jeb Bush is emphasizing his record as governor to boost his conservative credentials, even as he's out of step with the GOP base on immigration and education policy.
Reuters looks at Jeb Bush's early plans to create a biotech hub in Florida - and how they haven't really panned out.
CHRISTIE: Chris Christie told California Republicans to hold off on picking a nominee too quickly, the LA Times reports.
CLINTON: It's back to an April timeline for Hillary Clinton, writes the Wall Street Journal: "Hillary Clinton and her close advisers are telling Democratic donors that she will enter the presidential race sooner than expected, likely in April, a move that would allay uncertainties within her party and allow her to rev up fundraising."
The Washington Post looks at Hillary Clinton's relationship with Netanyahu: "Should Clinton win the presidency in 2016, her long and complicated history with Netanyahu will enter a new phase. If Netan-yahu survives an election this month, the same issues that cloud the U.S.-Israel relationship now - negotiations with the Palestinians and a disagreement over outreach to Iran that turned sharply bitter over Netanyahu's Tuesday address - will almost certainly still fester."
RUBIO: The AP reports that Marco Rubio is close to a decision about a presidential run, including some big staff moves.
PAUL: Here's our report on Rand Paul's CPAC straw poll win.
National Journal writes on how GOP hawks are systematically working to discredit Rand Paul's libertarian foreign policy views.
And around the country...
CALIFORNIA: Almost two-thirds of Californians approve of Gov. Jerry Brown, though that doesn't mean they would vote for him for president.
VIRGINIA: The Washington Post writes that Republican infighting could hurt the party in the 2016 presidential election. "A bitter source of the conflict - one almost certain to ignite renewed debate as 2016 approaches - is whether the state GOP will select a presidential candidate in a primary or at a convention, a process likely to influence whether the winner is a centrist or a right-wing Republican."
PROGRAMMING NOTES.
*** Monday's "News Nation with Tamron Hall" line-up: Tamron Hall speaks Daily Beast columnist Michael Tomasky and NBC's Chris Jansing about Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu addressing Congress, Washington Post Moscow Bureau Chief Michael Birnbaum about the death of Boris Nemtov, and Jeb Matulich and Brian Wysong of Tumbleweed Texstyles about their company as part of our Born in the USA series.
*** Monday's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" line-up: NBC's Andrea Mitchell interviews former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, Washington Post's Anne Gearan, Foreign Policy magazine Editor David Rothkopf, Washington Post's Chris Cillizza, USA Today Washington bureau chief Susan Page. |
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Nearly half of American voters - 48 percent - say that congressional Republicans should not have invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address Congress on Tuesday without first notifying President Barack Obama, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
By contrast, 30 percent of those polled believe the invitation was fine, and another 22 percent don't know enough to say either way.
Not surprisingly, the issue breaks along partisan lines, with 66 percent of Democrats saying Republicans shouldn't have invited Netanyahu without first notifying the president, compared with just 28 percent of Republicans who say that.
Israel in general, however, remains popular with Americans, the poll also finds. Forty-seven percent of voters view the country positively, versus 17 percent who have a negative reaction.
And Netanyahu has a 30 percent positive/17 percent negative rating in the poll - up from 24 percent positive/15 percent negative a year ago.
Yet once again, that largely breaks along partisan lines, with 49 percent of GOP voters holding a positive opinion of Netanyahu, versus just 12 percent of Democrats.
The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Feb. 25-28 of 800 registered voters (240 by cell phone), and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.5 percentage points. |
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Two hours before a midnight deadline, Congress has narrowly averted a shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security for one week, setting up another funding showdown for next Friday.
Hours before a midnight deadline, the House easily approved a one-week extension of the funding. The vote was 357-60. It required two-thirds of members' support to pass.
President Barack Obama later signed the bill.
The move means that DHS will not experience a shutdown at midnight, but it also fails to resolve the impasse created when the House initially lashed together the agency's budget and so-called "riders" that would gut the president's immigration proposals. Some House conservatives said that Obama's actions are unconstitutional and must be stopped - even at the cost of a DHS funding lapse.
The one-week funding vote came after an embarrassing defeat for House Speaker John Boehner earlier Friday. The House failed to pass a three-week extension of the funding as fifty-two Republicans and almost all Democrats voted against the measure. Conservatives called the stopgap bill a cave to the White House because it did not address immigration; Democrats derided it as a temporary solution and vowed not to "bail out" Boehner by giving him enough support to get the bill over the finish line.
But Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi reversed course later Friday night, instructing House Democrats to back the one-week measure. She said that they would have the opportunity to support a one-year "clean" funding bill next week.
An aide to Boehner dismissed the notion that the Speaker and Pelosi cut any kind of deal to bring up the clean bill next week, saying "there was no such promise made."
Before the final vote, Obama convened a meeting with key staff, including DHS head Jeh Johnson, late Friday to discuss the impending deadline, White House spokesman Josh Earnest said.
As lawmakers furiously negotiated behind closed doors, the Department of Homeland Security issued a 46-page document outlining procedures for a possible funding lapse, including an outline of which employees would be exempt from the shutdown.
In the event of a shutdown, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson has said that about 80 percent of DHS employees would still be required to come to work but would not be paid until Congress acts.
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The Department of Homeland Security has released its plans for a potential shutdown of the agency.
Late on Friday, Congress approved a one-week extension of funding for the agency, setting up another showdown next week.
In a 46-page document, the department outlines what functions would be maintained in the event of a shutdown, including counter-terrorism watches, TSA checks, and Secret Service protections. Workers who perform those jobs would be required to work but would not be paid until Congress acts.
Of about 225,000 on-board employees, about 194,000 will be required to work despite the funding lapse.
Those who are not exempt - and thus subject to furlough -- include employees who work in research and development, auditing and training jobs. Those workers will have four hours on the first day of the funding lapse to prepare for the shutdown, doing tasks like securing classified materials.
- Carrie Dann
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