My Favorite Newsletter: First Thoughts: Man of the Hour: Scott Walker's Big Moment

	February 2, 2015

Man of the Hour: Scott Walker's Big Moment

Just as Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is about to introduce himself to Republican donors -- especially now that Mitt Romney isn't running -- this past weekend's Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll shows him in first place in Iowa. Yes, he's ahead of Rand Paul by just one point, but consider that Walker is the only candidate at the top of the list who either hasn't run before (a la Mike Huckabee), or whose father did (a la Paul). So as the 2016 race is now getting underway, this is a big moment for Walker. After all, poll position matters, as does the timing of the poll position. Remember, if the 2012 race is any guide, plenty of candidates will get their moment. The question is: What do you do with it?

Groundhog Day: As 2016 contest begins, GOP remains deeply divided

Forgive us if you've heard this before, but since it's Groundhog Day, it's worth repeating (over and over and over and over): The establishment-vs.-conservative divide inside the Republican Party continues to be as a wide as ever. The aforementioned Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll is the latest example of this. Not only does the poll show Walker leading the early GOP pack in Iowa, it also has Jeb Bush coming in sixth (!!!) with Mitt Romney included in the field and fifth (!!!) without him. What's more, Bush's fav/unfav among likely Republican Iowa caucus-goers is just 46%-43%, compared with 66%-28% for Mike Huckabee, 64%-25% for Rand Paul, 64%-26% for Rick Perry, 60%-12% for Scott Walker, and 58%-21% for Ted Cruz. Yes, Jeb is going to be able to raise A LOT of money, but his story of 2015 could very well be whether he can make up ground with conservative grassroots voters.

Christie is in Giuliani territory

By the way, Chris Christie's numbers among Iowa Republican caucus-goers is even worse -- he's either tied for sixth (without Romney) or eighth (with Romney), and his fav/unfav is upside down at 36%-54%. Folks, this is Rudy Giuliani territory. Bottom line: There are two 2016 GOP races going on right now: One, the establishment contest, where Jeb and Christie are wooing deep-pocketed donors, especially now that Romney is out of the race. And two, the conservative grassroots contest, where the candidates will be jockeying to prove themselves as the most in tune with today's Republican Party.

Walker has the potential to straddle both the establishment and conservative worlds

The establishment-vs.-conservative divide is what makes Walker worth watching over the next year, because he has the ability to straddle both worlds. Given that Walker has battled with Wisconsin Democrats -- and won -- few conservatives are going to question his conservative bona fides. And given that he's won his state of Wisconsin three times in the past four years (2010 election, 2012 recall, 2014 re-election), he could appeal to some establishment Republicans who are looking for a non-Bush winner.

Obama's budget to focus on relieving income inequality, not reducing the deficit

At 11:55 am ET, President Obama delivers remarks on the Fiscal Year 2016 budget his administration is unveiling today. And the headline from this budget is that the administration is more interested in addressing income inequality than reducing the deficit. "President Obama will propose a 10-year budget on Monday that stabilizes the federal deficit but does not seek balance, instead focusing on policies to address income inequality as he adds nearly $6 trillion to the debt," the New York Times writes. "The budget - $4 trillion for the 2016 fiscal year - would hit corporations that park profits overseas, raise taxes on the richest of the rich and increase the incomes of the middle class through new spending and tax credits. Mr. Obama will challenge the newly elected Republican Congress to answer his emphasis on wage stagnation, according to congressional aides briefed on the details." More: "The central question that Mr. Obama's budget will pose to Congress is this: Should Washington worry about what may be the defining economic issue of the era - the widening gap between the rich and everyone else - or should policy makers primarily seek to address a mountain of debt that the White House hopes to control but only marginally reduce as a share of the economy?"

Defining "success" against ISIS

Obama, meanwhile, discussed several topics in his Super Bowl interview with NBC's Savannah Guthrie (Deflate-gate, 2016, his triumphant-sounding State of the Union address). But the part of the interview that grabbed our attention was Obama mentioning that he has witnessed the ISIS beheading videos. "I think it would affect anybody who has an ounce of humanity. And it's part of the reason why I think we've been so successful in organizing such a broad-based coalition. But what's also important, though, Savannah, is for us to maintain some perspective about these issues." But while Obama was talking about success when it comes to assembling a coalition against ISIS, his former Defense secretary - Robert Gates - said the United States is far from winning, especially when the objective is to "dismantle and destroy it." On "Meet the Press" yesterday, Gates said, "I think we've made some steps, some successful steps to contain it. But at the same time, in a way, ISIS has sort of reached the natural limits of where they would have sympathetic people, the Sunni areas of northern and western Iraq in particular. But I think that the airstrikes have contributed to containing them. But we're a long way, in my view, from being in a position to roll them back or push them out of Iraq." So if the goal is containing ISIS, that's working. But if it's dismantling and destroying them, not so much.

Christie calls for "balance" and "choice" when it comes to vaccinating children
Finally, MSNBC's Kasie Hunt, files this dispatch while covering Christie's trip in London. "New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie on Monday said the government needs to strike a 'balance' between public health and parental choice in making decisions about vaccinating kids, even as an outbreak of measles is spreading among unvaccinated people in the United States. 'We vaccinate ours [kids], and so, you know that's the best expression I can give you of my opinion,' Christie said when asked if he would urge Americans to vaccinate their children. 'You know it's much more important what you think as a parent than what you think as a public official.

And that's what we do. But I also understand that parents need to have some measure of choice in things as well, so that's the balance that the government has to decide.'" Compare Christie's answer with what Obama told NBC's Guthrie: "I understand that there are families that, in some cases, are concerned about the effect of vaccinations. The science is, you know, pretty indisputable. We've looked at this again and again. There is every reason to get vaccinated, but there aren't reasons to not."

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First Read's Morning Clips

OBAMA AGENDA: The White House's FY2016 budget

The AP on Obama's budget: "The $4 trillion budget that President Barack Obama sends Congress on Monday proposes higher taxes on wealthier Americans and corporations, and an ambitious $478 billion public works program for highway, bridge and transit upgrades. The grab-bag of proposals, many recycled from past Obama budgets, already is generating fierce objections from Republicans, who control both chambers of Congress for the first time in his presidency. They will move ahead on their own, mindful they eventually must strike a deal with Obama, whose signature is needed for the budget to become law."

More, from the Washington Post: "The document will become, if not law, another defining moment for the president as he tries to carve out priorities for his remaining two years in office. Administration officials have tried to map out potential political trade-offs by offering elements such as a corporate tax revision that could appeal to Republicans, while asking for more spending on infrastructure."

And from the Wall Street Journal: "President Barack Obama is making an opening bid on overhauling corporate taxes and linking it to boosting infrastructure spending, a move that could clear a rare path toward common ground in a deeply divided capital. Mr. Obama wants U.S. companies to pay a 14% tax on the approximately $2 trillion of overseas earnings they have accumulated, a White House official said Sunday. They would face a 19% minimum tax on future foreign profits. Companies could reinvest those funds in the U.S. without paying additional tax."

The New York Times looks at how a coverage gap in the health care law means some recipients have to take on extra work to qualify for federal subsidies.

The White House announced Monday that German Chancellor Angela Merkel will visit the White House next week.

CONGRESS: McConnell's inside game

POLITICO, on Mitch McConnell: "[A]s McConnell now heads into a tumultuous period atop the Senate, with huge fights looming over immigration, national security, the budget, highway funding and taxes, the Kentucky Republican is playing an inside game to keep his party's warring factions together and outmaneuver a recalcitrant and robust Democratic minority." MORE: "To overcome the next round of tests, McConnell has set up meetings and briefings to get back-channel intelligence with the blocs of his caucus. He has instituted a weekly Wednesday meeting with committee chairmen in the Strom Thurmond Room just off the floor, where he suggested last week he may hold off on pushing new Iran sanctions until after March, senators said."
The House is likely to vote next week on the Senate's version of the Keystone XL pipeline bill.
Paul Ryan, on Meet the Press, said Sunday that he's open to a tax reform deal. "We want to work with this administration to see if we can find common ground ... and we want to exhaust that possibility and if and when that possibility is exhausted, then we will put out what we think ought to be done."

OFF TO THE RACES: Breaking down the Des Moines Register poll

The big 2016 poll news from the weekend, via the Des Moines Register's poll of likely GOP caucusgoers: Scott Walker with 15%, Rand Paul at 14%, Mike Huckabee at 10%, Ben Carson at 9%, Jeb Bush with 8%.

Also in the DMR poll: "Twenty-five percent of likely Republican caucusgoers see terrorism as the most important issue for America's next president to address, topping a list of nine possibilities, a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll shows. That's a 9-point spike since the last time likely caucusgoers were polled on top issues, in October."

CHRISTIE: Christie headed across the pond this weekend "to strengthen the business, cultural and diplomatic ties between our state and the United Kingdom."
On vaccines, Christie said the government must "balance" public health interests with parents' freedom of choice.

CLINTON: The AP: "The challenge ahead for Hillary Rodham Clinton is one faced by few White House hopefuls: running a primary campaign in which she faces little competition, if any at all."

JINDAL: Bobby Jindal writes in POLITICO: "There is a secret that people outside of Washington, D.C., aren't aware of right now: Some Republicans in Congress are on the verge of proposing an alternative to Obamacare that imposes new tax hikes on the American people."

PAUL: The Hill on Rand Paul's Texas delegate strategy: "The Texas primary, which is scheduled for March 1, 2016, will have a major impact on the delegate count. Paul's allies think it could be a difference-maker in the race. Only California has more delegates, 172, but its primary isn't until early June, when the nominee will likely have already been decided."

RUBIO: National Journal looks at how the Florida senator wants to run as an "innovative policy reformer," citing his ties to Paul Ryan.

Rubio will be in Iowa on February 13 to kick off his book tour.

WALKER: Here's Scott Walker on Syria during a Sunday interview with ABC: "I think anywhere and everywhere, we have to be - go beyond just aggressive air strikes. We have to look at other surgical methods. And ultimately, we have to be prepared to put boots on the ground if that's what it takes."

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel visits the Iowa church where Walker's father was a minister.

And around the country...

NEBRASKA: Republicans are looking to change the state's electoral vote rules to winner-take-all.

PROGRAMMING NOTES.

*** Monday's "News Nation with Tamron Hall" line-up: Tamron Hall speaks with Editor of the Nation Dave Zirin about Superbowl 48 XLIX, The Daily Beast's Allison Samuels about Whitney Houston's daughter Bobbi Kristina hospitalized, terror expert Michael Kay about ISIS, teen astronaut Alyssa Carson about wanting to be the first astronaut on Mars, and Adweek's Tony Case about Superbowl Ads.

Chris Christie Calls for 'Balance' in Vaccine Debate

CAMBRIDGE, England _ New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie on Monday said the government needs to strike a "balance" between public health and parental choice in making decisions about vaccinating kids, even as an outbreak of measles is spreading among unvaccinated people in the United States.

"We vaccinate ours [kids], and so, you know that's the best expression I can give you of my opinion," Christie said when asked if he would urge Americans to vaccinate their children. "You know it's much more important what you think as a parent than what you think as a public official. And that's what we do. But I also understand that parents need to have some measure of choice in things as well, so that's the balance that the government has to decide."

Christie is in the United Kingdom for a three-day trip that's officially billed as a trade mission for his state but largely viewed as a chance to build foreign policy credibility ahead of the 2016 presidential election. He made the comments standing outside MedImmune, a company with business ties to New Jersey that makes vaccines and biologic drugs.

Pressed about whether he believes vaccines are dangerous, Christie responded: "I didn't say that - I said different disease types can be more lethal so that the concern would be measuring whatever the perceived danger is by a vaccine and we've had plenty of that over a period of time versus what the risk to public health is. And that's exactly what I mean by what I said."

President Obama on Sunday told Americans, "get your kids vaccinated." He told NBC News' Savannah Guthrie, "The science is, you know, pretty indisputable."

- MSNBC's Kasie Hunt

Nearly 4 in 10 Would Steer Kids to Play Sports Other than Football

Ahead of Sunday's Super Bowl showdown, nearly four-in-10 Americans - 37 percent - say they would encourage their child to play another sport other than football due to concerns about concussions, according to a newly released result from the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

By contrast, 60 percent of respondents say they disagree and would back their children if they wanted to play football.

These findings are essentially unchanged from an NBC/WSJ poll from a year ago, when 40 percent said they'd encourage their children to play another sport, while 57 percent wouldn't.

In the new poll, the percentage preferring their children play a different sport due to concerns about concussions is higher among seniors (51 percent), those with post-graduate degrees (50 percent), liberals (49 percent), Democrats (47 percent), Obama voters (46 percent), urban residents (40 percent), women (40 percent), and those who don't have children under 18 living in their household (38 percent).

And it's lower among conservatives (28 percent), those ages 18-34 (28 percent), Republicans (30 percent), Romney voters (30 percent), those with a high school education or less (31 percent), men (32 percent), and those who do have children under 18 living in their household (34 percent).

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Jan. 14-17 of 800 adults, and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.5 percentage points.