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| Welcome to Wonkbook, Wonkblog's morning policy news primer byMax Ehrenfreund (@MaxEhrenfreud). Send comments, criticism or ideas to Wonkbook at Washpost dot com. To read more by the Wonkblog team, click here. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook. |
| Wonkbook: Things we thought would happen this year but didn’t |
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This is the time of year when people indulge in making predictions. A healthier annual tradition might be to remember that the future is uncertain, and thatforecasts andprognostications of all stripes can be wrong.
George Condon points in that direction with a short history of everything we thought would happen this past year: that voters would reject Republicans after they shut down the government, that Democrats had the better ground game, that Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) campaign for reelection would be close. (He won handily.)
Here are a few others:
-- The Congressional Budget Office was too dreary about the deficit, as it has been since 2011 -- and the discrepancy between projected and actual expenditures has increased each year. Total federal outlays over the last four years are $1 trillion below the office's forecasts. Click here for the chart.
-- The Federal Reserve was too sanguine about the economy. The central bank revised its predictions this year over the summer and again, slightly, this fall, as the economy disappointed expectations for a sixth year in a row.
-- The market, of course, was unprepared for the decline in oil prices. Contracts to deliver a barrel of crude in February, two months from now, were worth $89.36 a year ago. That price has since declined to $53.55.
These were big surprises. Let's hope that in any case, next year is at least as interesting as this one.
What's in Wonkbook: 1) Opinions, including The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal on De Blasio and the cops 2) The Greek crisis 3) Ezell Ford, Steve Scalise and more
Unit of measurement of the day: The Becquerel. It's a measurement of the intensity of radioactivity. Researchers testing the Pacific Ocean off the coast of the United States found radiation from the Fukushima power plant in Japan of less than one Becquerel per cubic meter of seawater -- a minuscule amount, hundreds of times less than you'd get having your teeth x-rayed at the dentist's. Chris Mooney in The Washington Post.
Chart of the day:
Prospects for those who have been out of work for six months or more have improved somewhat over the last year, as they've become more likely to find work. Ben Casselman at Five Thirty Eight.
1. Top opinionsEven after the traffic jam on the bridge, Chris Christie and Andrew Cuomo dodge reforms. Legislation would have made the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey more transparent, but the entity's secrecy is a source of political power for both governors, who vetoed the bills. The New York Times.
LAURA TYSON & LENNY MENDONCA: Obamacare is reducing costs. Around the country, doctors are finding ways of reducing spending while improving patients' health. Look at Medicare spending, which has decreased even though it's not affected by the business cycle. Project Syndicate.
McARDLE: Economists really don't know what raising the minimum wage does. And that's an argument for proceeding with caution and enacting moderate increases at most. Bloomberg.
Bill de Blasio doesn't know how public order is created and maintained. Preventing the streets of New York from sliding into anarchy requires constant vigilance from the police against even the most minor offenses. The Wall Street Journal.
New York police are losing the public's respect. Officers should not have turned their backs on the mayor when he gave a eulogy at a funeral on Saturday. "They have taken the most grave and solemn of civic moments — a funeral of a fallen colleague — and hijacked it for their own petty look-at-us gesture." The New York Times.
KLEIN: Capital budgeting sounds good in theory. The idea would be for the federal government to distinguish between expenditures and investments, as the private sector does, so that it can't decrease the deficit now by transferring expenditures (say, on urgent repairs to a bridge) into the future. But who decides what's an expenditure and what's an investment? Vox.
GERSON: We don't need extremist candidates in 2016. "In what world is Hillary Clinton — feminist heroine, author of Hillarycare, sworn enemy of the vast right-wing conspiracy — not progressive enough? In what parallel universe is Jeb Bush — a tax-slashing, school-voucher-supporting, pro-gun former Southern governor — some kind of moderate?" The Washington Post.
WALDMAN: Clinton can win without the white vote. It's not clear how any Democrat could win over white working-class voters,who are mostly Republicans, nor do Democrats really need to. "The last time a Democratic presidential candidate won a majority of the white vote was 1964. Yet they’ve managed to win five elections since then." The Washington Post.
Republicans could use a procedural tool that's less blunt than shutting down the government. One idea would be to pass a law that funds discretionary programs at 95 percent in the absence of a spending bill, with an emphasis on avoiding public inconvenience. If that were the default, Republicans would have more leverage. John O. McGinnis and Michael B. Rappaport in The Wall Street Journal.
World leaders interlude: Are you taller than Vladimir Putin? Useour calculator to find out.
2. The Greek crisisGreece could well exit the euro this year. If a left-wing party called Syriza wins power in elections scheduled for next month, they'll reject the austerity that Germans insist on as a condition of lending. It's happened before, but this time, both sides could be willing to take the plunge. Matt O'Brien in The Washington Post.
The crisis isn't spreading to the rest of the continent. The European Central Bank has promised to do "whatever it takes" to support banks in other countries, so investors are confident that a Greek default wouldn't bring down the entire financial sector. Neil Irwin in The New York Times.
At least not yet. If leftist parties start winning elections elsewhere in Europe, the currency union could begin to dissolve, which would destabilize the global economy. Danny Vinik in The New Republic.
To keep Greece in, Angela Merkel must accept rising prices. "So far, Merkel has resisted relenting on austerity policies for Greece. She has been unwilling to stimulate demand in the euro area, either by boosting investment in Germany’s own low-growth economy or by letting the European Central Bank engage in large-scale quantitative easing. She should not wait for the dawn of a new government in Greece to change course on all fronts." Bloomberg.
Canine interlude: An excitable schnauzer named Casey faints with joy when a family member returns home after two years away. Watch here.
3. In case you missed itEzell Ford was shot in the back. The mentally ill black man, killed by Los Angeles police in August, suffered three gunshot wounds, an autopsy showed. One was to his back and included the imprint of a muzzle, indicating he was shot at "very close range." Kate Mather, Richard Winton and Ruben Vives in the Los Angeles Times.
The majority whip in the House spoke at a conference of white supremacists in 2002. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) gave a presentation at a conference hosted by the notorious David Duke, a former grand wizard of the Ku Klux Klan. "Scalise's political circle worked furiously late Monday to quell the storm... describing him as a disorganized and ill-prepared young politician who didn't pay close attention to invitations." Robert Costa and Ed O'Keefe in The Washington Post.
Michael Grimm will resign. The Republican congressman from New York has pleaded guilty to tax evasion. "The decision to call it quits by Mr. Grimm, of Staten Island — perhaps best known for threatening to break a reporter in half and throw him off a Capitol Hill balcony — came after a conversation on Monday with the House speaker, John A. Boehner, which a person close to the speaker confirmed." Jason Horowitz in The New York Times.
Almonds have transformed California's water sector. The crop is more lucrative than cotton and vegetables, but requires more water. And the nut trees must be watered every year, or they'll die at an enormous expense to farmers. Felicity Barringer in The New York Times.
There's a huge cloud of leaked natural gas floating over New Mexico. Scientists have been studying the plume, which is the size of Delaware, from space. Methane in the atmosphere is a greenhouse gas, as well as a wasted economic resource. Joby Warrick in The Washington Post.
George Condon points in that direction with a short history of everything we thought would happen this past year: that voters would reject Republicans after they shut down the government, that Democrats had the better ground game, that Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) campaign for reelection would be close. (He won handily.)
Here are a few others:
-- The Congressional Budget Office was too dreary about the deficit, as it has been since 2011 -- and the discrepancy between projected and actual expenditures has increased each year. Total federal outlays over the last four years are $1 trillion below the office's forecasts. Click here for the chart.
-- The Federal Reserve was too sanguine about the economy. The central bank revised its predictions this year over the summer and again, slightly, this fall, as the economy disappointed expectations for a sixth year in a row.
-- The market, of course, was unprepared for the decline in oil prices. Contracts to deliver a barrel of crude in February, two months from now, were worth $89.36 a year ago. That price has since declined to $53.55.
These were big surprises. Let's hope that in any case, next year is at least as interesting as this one.
What's in Wonkbook: 1) Opinions, including The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal on De Blasio and the cops 2) The Greek crisis 3) Ezell Ford, Steve Scalise and more
Unit of measurement of the day: The Becquerel. It's a measurement of the intensity of radioactivity. Researchers testing the Pacific Ocean off the coast of the United States found radiation from the Fukushima power plant in Japan of less than one Becquerel per cubic meter of seawater -- a minuscule amount, hundreds of times less than you'd get having your teeth x-rayed at the dentist's. Chris Mooney in The Washington Post.
Chart of the day:
Prospects for those who have been out of work for six months or more have improved somewhat over the last year, as they've become more likely to find work. Ben Casselman at Five Thirty Eight.
1. Top opinionsEven after the traffic jam on the bridge, Chris Christie and Andrew Cuomo dodge reforms. Legislation would have made the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey more transparent, but the entity's secrecy is a source of political power for both governors, who vetoed the bills. The New York Times.
LAURA TYSON & LENNY MENDONCA: Obamacare is reducing costs. Around the country, doctors are finding ways of reducing spending while improving patients' health. Look at Medicare spending, which has decreased even though it's not affected by the business cycle. Project Syndicate.
McARDLE: Economists really don't know what raising the minimum wage does. And that's an argument for proceeding with caution and enacting moderate increases at most. Bloomberg.
Bill de Blasio doesn't know how public order is created and maintained. Preventing the streets of New York from sliding into anarchy requires constant vigilance from the police against even the most minor offenses. The Wall Street Journal.
New York police are losing the public's respect. Officers should not have turned their backs on the mayor when he gave a eulogy at a funeral on Saturday. "They have taken the most grave and solemn of civic moments — a funeral of a fallen colleague — and hijacked it for their own petty look-at-us gesture." The New York Times.
KLEIN: Capital budgeting sounds good in theory. The idea would be for the federal government to distinguish between expenditures and investments, as the private sector does, so that it can't decrease the deficit now by transferring expenditures (say, on urgent repairs to a bridge) into the future. But who decides what's an expenditure and what's an investment? Vox.
GERSON: We don't need extremist candidates in 2016. "In what world is Hillary Clinton — feminist heroine, author of Hillarycare, sworn enemy of the vast right-wing conspiracy — not progressive enough? In what parallel universe is Jeb Bush — a tax-slashing, school-voucher-supporting, pro-gun former Southern governor — some kind of moderate?" The Washington Post.
WALDMAN: Clinton can win without the white vote. It's not clear how any Democrat could win over white working-class voters,who are mostly Republicans, nor do Democrats really need to. "The last time a Democratic presidential candidate won a majority of the white vote was 1964. Yet they’ve managed to win five elections since then." The Washington Post.
Republicans could use a procedural tool that's less blunt than shutting down the government. One idea would be to pass a law that funds discretionary programs at 95 percent in the absence of a spending bill, with an emphasis on avoiding public inconvenience. If that were the default, Republicans would have more leverage. John O. McGinnis and Michael B. Rappaport in The Wall Street Journal.
World leaders interlude: Are you taller than Vladimir Putin? Useour calculator to find out.
2. The Greek crisisGreece could well exit the euro this year. If a left-wing party called Syriza wins power in elections scheduled for next month, they'll reject the austerity that Germans insist on as a condition of lending. It's happened before, but this time, both sides could be willing to take the plunge. Matt O'Brien in The Washington Post.
The crisis isn't spreading to the rest of the continent. The European Central Bank has promised to do "whatever it takes" to support banks in other countries, so investors are confident that a Greek default wouldn't bring down the entire financial sector. Neil Irwin in The New York Times.
At least not yet. If leftist parties start winning elections elsewhere in Europe, the currency union could begin to dissolve, which would destabilize the global economy. Danny Vinik in The New Republic.
To keep Greece in, Angela Merkel must accept rising prices. "So far, Merkel has resisted relenting on austerity policies for Greece. She has been unwilling to stimulate demand in the euro area, either by boosting investment in Germany’s own low-growth economy or by letting the European Central Bank engage in large-scale quantitative easing. She should not wait for the dawn of a new government in Greece to change course on all fronts." Bloomberg.
Canine interlude: An excitable schnauzer named Casey faints with joy when a family member returns home after two years away. Watch here.
3. In case you missed itEzell Ford was shot in the back. The mentally ill black man, killed by Los Angeles police in August, suffered three gunshot wounds, an autopsy showed. One was to his back and included the imprint of a muzzle, indicating he was shot at "very close range." Kate Mather, Richard Winton and Ruben Vives in the Los Angeles Times.
The majority whip in the House spoke at a conference of white supremacists in 2002. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) gave a presentation at a conference hosted by the notorious David Duke, a former grand wizard of the Ku Klux Klan. "Scalise's political circle worked furiously late Monday to quell the storm... describing him as a disorganized and ill-prepared young politician who didn't pay close attention to invitations." Robert Costa and Ed O'Keefe in The Washington Post.
Michael Grimm will resign. The Republican congressman from New York has pleaded guilty to tax evasion. "The decision to call it quits by Mr. Grimm, of Staten Island — perhaps best known for threatening to break a reporter in half and throw him off a Capitol Hill balcony — came after a conversation on Monday with the House speaker, John A. Boehner, which a person close to the speaker confirmed." Jason Horowitz in The New York Times.
Almonds have transformed California's water sector. The crop is more lucrative than cotton and vegetables, but requires more water. And the nut trees must be watered every year, or they'll die at an enormous expense to farmers. Felicity Barringer in The New York Times.
There's a huge cloud of leaked natural gas floating over New Mexico. Scientists have been studying the plume, which is the size of Delaware, from space. Methane in the atmosphere is a greenhouse gas, as well as a wasted economic resource. Joby Warrick in The Washington Post.
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