Wales have to master living off their wits against Ireland’s calculated fury

Warren Gatland’s side are organised, resolute and have worked on their lineout but will need to think on their feet in the Six Nations showdown in Cardiff

- Paul Rees
- The Guardian, Thursday 5 March 2015 06.48 EST

Warren Gatland and captain Sam Warburton have to make sure Wales can react to what ever Ireland throw at them in Cardiff on 14 March. Photograph: Stu Forster/Getty Images

Joe Schmidt said immediately after Ireland’s victory over England that he going to take some time off and not think about rugby for 24 hours, a resolution unlikely to have survived the approach of evening.

The devil in Schmidt’s Ireland is in the detail. His planning is meticulous and the champions sit on top of the Six Nations table unbeaten after three rounds because his players have, for the most part, made the drawing board the pitch. Contrast that with France, who after four hours this year have provided little clue as to what they are about, strangers rather than team-mates.

Running from deep early on against Wales from their own possession rather than turnovers did not suggest much in the way of planning on France’s part. Had they watched the second half of England’s victory in Cardiff on the opening night they would have seen how to take on a team who base their game on territory. But then again, they were probably on the treadmill in the gym.

What a difference Schmidt would make to France. Ireland always seemed a step ahead of England and although the margin of victory was only 10 points England were some way back in second. The progress they made in Cardiff and against Italy checked by a side who, in true New Zealand fashion, confronted them at their perceived strongest point and left them like a ship without an anchor, all adrift.

There were only eight scrums in the match but England were unable to establish a measure of supremacy, and a key moment came in the first half when England opted to kick a penalty to touch and throw into a lineout five metres from the Irish line. Would Ireland compete on the throw or stand back to take on a driving maul? Dylan Hartley, who had an unblemished record in the set piece last autumn, went long and Devin Toner helped himself.

In contrast Ireland made their strengths tell: three kicks in the opening five minutes saw England fail to secure possession, the confidence they had developed under the high ball in training evaporating. Having been told discipline was key, England kept infringing at the breakdown at a time when bodies and minds were at their most fresh.

Ireland under Schmidt play with a calculated fury. A team who used to start like a hurricane and finish like a gentle summer breeze pace themselves – although they finished the victories over France and England on the back foot – and they have in the last two seasons shown they can not only win the Six Nations but take on the best in the southern hemisphere: Australia and South Africa were beaten last November, a year after New Zealand escaped from the Aviva Stadium with victory from the last move of the match.

Their next stop is Cardiff against another team coached by a New Zealander. Ireland are looking for an unprecedented 11th consecutive Test victory and expectations are rising. An article on the All Blacks’ website this week described the men in green as “the biggest local threat” at the World Cup and lavished praise on the Ireland fly-half Jonathan Sexton, who with his half-back partner Conor Murray play builders to Schmidt’s architect.

Schmidt cannot hope to keep the lid on outside expectation but Ireland cocoon themselves away at their training base, focusing on what lies within. Cardiff has become a second home; only two defeats there in the championship since 1983. Their final game is against Scotland at Murrayfield, where they have won six and lost nine in the last 30 years, although a run of five successive victories there ended in 2013.

It is 10 years since Ireland cut loose in Edinburgh, so victory in Cardiff would not prompt premature celebration from Schmidt and his players, not that they will be thinking about Scotland yet. All that matters now is the game with Wales next week, opponents who have hauled themselves back into title contention with victories in France and Scotland and are motivated by last year’s defeat in Dublin, one of the low points of the Warren Gatland era.

It will be a seminal day for Wales who, until Schmidt took charge of Ireland, had become the most consistent side in the Six Nations, winning the tournament in 2008, 2012 and 2013. Aside of last November’s victory over South Africa, their recent record against the teams in the top five of the world rankings is poor.

They have lost their last two matches to Ireland and England, and the Irish blemish Gatland’s record in the Six Nations, which stands at 27 victories and 11 defeats. It does not compare badly to the glory years of the 1970s when Wales lost seven matches in 39 and won 30. The only team he does not have at least a 50% record against in the championship is Ireland; three successes compared with four defeats.

So it is not just the title that is at stake for Wales. They have become proficient at beating teams they are expected to –which was far from the case before Gatland’s arrival – and last weekend’s victory in France highlighted their organisation and resolve, and work they had done on areas where they had been weak, such as the lineout.

Where Wales have been vulnerable is when they have to live off their wits, such as the second half against England when a game that had appeared to be firmly in their grasp started to slip away. They could not find a response and they were similarly choked in Dublin last year when Ireland neutralised Wales’s strengths, such as the breakdown, by not playing to it.

Gatland was smarting in Dublin last year. He coached the Lions to success in 2013 and was part of the management team in South Africa four years before. After the World Cup, the Lions will start thinking in earnest about the head coach for New Zealand in 2017. Schmidt is the frontrunner and another Ireland victory over Wales will start the cement setting.

ITALY DISCIPLINE KEEPS TIGHT GRIP ON PENALTY COUNT

Italy sit in an unusual position after three rounds of the Six Nations. It is not that someone else, Scotland, are occupying bottom place in the table but they are second behind England in the try chart –and they are bottom, by some way, of the penalty tally.

Italy scored seven tries in last season’s Six Nations, compared with five in 2013 and four in 2012, and they have accumulated six so far despite being confined to a penalty in their opening match against Ireland in Rome. Their highest total in a campaign is 12 in 2003 and with their next match against France in Rome, who knows what sort of state Les Bleus will be in after Philippe Saint-André tore into his players following the defeat to Wales.

France are at the bottom of the try table with two and they have yet to score one in the opening half of a match. Ireland, the leaders, are just above them on three with Wales and Scotland on four. England, who managed three kicks in Dublin on Sunday, lead with rest with eight and have two matches at Twickenham to come, but they are not likely to get near their Six Nations best of 29 in 2001.

England have scored more tries than any other country in the Six Nations, 222, the only one to reach a double hundred. Italy and Scotland are in a race to avoid being the last team to reach three figures, the Azzurri on 95 with an advantage of six over the team they defeated last weekend.

Ireland have kicked the most penalties, 14, three more than Wales, with France on nine, England and Scotland on eight and Italy, who must pray every night for a reincarnation of Diego Domínguez, way back on two. Drop goals have become a rarity: there were three in the 2014 tournament, two kicked by Danny Care, and two this year, Dan Biggar for Wales against England and George Ford in Dublin.

Ireland have not scored with a drop goal in the championship since 2011, a trend that has not changed under Schmidt, perhaps not surprisingly given that the drop goal has never been well stocked in New Zealand’s arsenal. The Welsh media are making much of Ireland’s style, saying that it does not amount to much more than kick and chase.

Fourteen penalties to three tries offers statistical support but England were content early on to risk giving three points away rather than seven and wilfully infringed at the breakdown. Too many referees are reluctant to reach for a yellow card early on for what may be termed professional fouls, waiting for an accumulation of offences, and it gives defending teams licence. Going down to 14 men early on would have made England more reluctant to infringe and give Ireland possession close to the opposition line.

What Wales will be aware of is that Ireland are masters of defending a lead. Only once in the Schmidt era have they come from behind to win in the Six Nations, last year in France when they claimed the title. Wales have taken the lead in all their three matches this year and been ahead at half-time. They will need to repeat that in Cardiff.

BONUS POINTS – A ROAD WORTH GOING DOWN

If Wales win, the title will probably be decided on points difference for the third successive year. It raises the issue of bonus points with the Six Nations the only major competition in the world game yet to employ them, tradition and all that. Just don’t mention Friday nights.

Bonus points would have made more of an impact at the bottom than the top with Scotland securing three in defeat and France two. Under the two points for a win operated by the Six Nations, it would be enough to take them away from Italy, but the bonus system inflates the value of a victory to four points, so Scotland would remain at the foot of the table but able to catch the Italians without the bother of winning a match.

One argument advanced against bonus points is that it would open the possibility of a team winning the grand slam but not the title. Equally, a team could be whitewashed and not receive the wooden spoon. But not if a victory became worth six points.

With bonus points, and four points for a win, England and Wales would be three points behind Ireland. England are the most likely of the three to score at least four tries in the next round, which would, under the bonus system, leave them two points behind the Irish if they won in Cardiff and only managed a couple of tries.

It would mean a draw could be enough for them on the final day when the staggered kick-offs can give the title contender playing last some sort of advantage. Ireland knew what they had to do against France in Pars last year, win, while England in the lunchtime kick-off at Rome could only try to pile up the points and paid for an interception try they conceded.

Perhaps bonus points would make the last day not more or less exciting, but to hold out at a time when rugby followers have become used to the system smacks of obstinacy.

Why not ditch countdown clocks at grounds. It would have made no difference to last year’s title race with Ireland and England both getting two extra points under it, but it increases speculation, even if it is still more the pity that all the matches on the last weekend do not start at the same time.

SUBDUED DYLAN HARTLEY A CONCERN

England have had to reflect this week on another season without a grand slam, 12 years and counting. After winning in Cardiff, they were expected to push Ireland closer than 10 points. The scoreline may not have suggested it, but the home side’s victory was comfortable.

England, so buoyant in the opening two rounds and adept at solving problems, froze at the Aviva Stadium. They have players returning for injury for next week’s match against Scotland, not least Courtney Lawes, Mike Brown and Tom Wood, while Alex Corbisiero has made a couple of appearances off the bench for Northampton in the last two Premiership rounds.

Stuart Lancaster made the point that at this stage last season, Ireland had lost to England but recovered to win the title. England, had, though, already been beaten by France and no team were undefeated after three rounds.

England were feted after Cardiff and slated after Dublin. Reality, as ever, lies in between. They have promise and depth and they should win their final two matches with something to spare at Twickenham, the ground where they will play most of their matches in the World Cup.

Lancaster’s priority must be deciding his best team and a concern must be the form of Dylan Hartley, and not because a vital line-out throw was intercepted in Dublin. He seems muted after his red and yellow cards in November, December and January. England need him to roar.