My Favorite Newsletter: First Thoughts: Could Benjamin Netanyahu's Party Lose?

	March 16, 2015

Could Benjamin Netanyahu's Party Lose?

Israel's elections are tomorrow, and the last polling there shows the outcome is uncertain -- and that Netanyahu's Likud Party could possibly lose. "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned supporters at a rally here Sunday that he and his Likud party may not win Tuesday's election, a potentially dramatic fall for a consummate political survivor whose nine years in office transformed him into the public face of contemporary Israel," the Washington Post writes. "A loss by Netanyahu - or a razor-thin win and the prospect that he would be forced to enter into an unwieldy "government of national unity" with his rivals - would mark a sobering reversal for Israel's security hawks, in a country where the electorate has been moving steadily rightward for the past 15 years. The final round of opinion polls Friday showed Netanyahu and his right-wing Likud party facing a surprisingly strong challenge by Isaac Herzog, leader of the center-left Labor Party, and his running mate, former peace negotiator -Tzipi Livni, who hold a small but steady lead." More: "Netanyahu charged in a radio interview Sunday that hostile Israeli journalists and shadowy 'foreign powers' were behind an anti-Netanyahu campaign that could be his undoing."

Netanyahu losing wouldn't be good news for U.S. hawks on Iran

It's unclear the exact impact that Netanyahu losing on Tuesday could have on U.S. domestic politics, especially when it comes to the Iran nuclear debate. But it wouldn't be good news for hawks. Think about it: Netanyahu comes to the U.S. Congress to make his final argument -- on Iran, against President Obama's foreign policy -- and his party loses what had seemed to be a winnable election? Right or wrong, Netanyahu getting involved in domestic U.S. politics would be blamed for the surprising loss. So tomorrow is going to be a big story.

Will Senate Democrats defy Obama White House on Iran deal?

Regarding the Washington debate over the Iran talks, Politico writes that it's increasingly likely that Democrats could buck the White House. "Even as the White House ramps up pressure on Congress to stay out of its negotiations with Iran on a nuclear agreement, Republicans are on the brink of veto-proof majorities for legislation that could undercut any deal. And that support has held up even after the uproar last week over the GOP's letter to Iranian leaders warning against an agreement." On "Meet the Press" yesterday, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) -- as loyal of an ally to Obama as you will find -- said he remained a co-sponsor of the legislation drafted by Senate Foreign Relations Chair Bob Corker (R-TN) to ensure that Congress approves of any nuclear deal the U.S. (along with Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China) reaches with Iran. "The deal that is being negotiated with Iran is about what will Iran do to get out from other congressional sanctions," Kaine said. "And so it is unrealistic to think that Congress is not going to be involved in looking at a final deal. I am a pro-diplomacy senator. And I supported the negotiations to this point. But any deal that touches upon the congressional statutory sanctions is going to get a review of Congress."

What this debate is all about

Whether Congress gives the White House until June for a final-final deal: Here wasthe letter that White House Chief of Staff Denis McDonough sent to Corker over the weekend: "If we successfully negotiate a framework by the end of this month, and a final deal by the end of June, we expect a robust debate in Congress." So what the White House is saying: Debate and pass legislation not after a framework is reached (in March), but after final-final approval (June).

Putin reappears

Per the BBC, "President Vladimir Putin has appeared in public for the first time since 5 March, quelling intense speculation about his health. He was meeting President of Kyrgyzstan, Almazbek Atambayev, in St Petersburg. Commenting on the rumours about his health, Mr Putin said 'things would be boring without gossip.'"

Granite State of Mind

Here's the dispatch by MSNBC's Kasie Hunt on the GOP campaigning over the weekend in New Hampshire: "Jeb Bush embraced the Live Free or Die state's freewheeling politics. Scott Walker mostly bunkered down in private meetings. Ted Cruz was the keynote speaker at a county dinner that featured an auction of the likely candidates' neckties. Rick Perry toured the far north of the state, trying in relative obscurity to resurrect himself. Over the weekend in New Hampshire, it was clear: The 2016 Republican presidential primary is wide open - and well underway, even without declared candidates."

Will Gowdy's Benghazi committee also interview David Petraeus?

On "Meet the Press" yesterday, Rep. Trey Gowdy -- who chairs the select congressional committee on Benghazi -- gave a striking answer to the question whether his committee would ALSO want to interview former CIA Director David Petraeus in addition to Hillary Clinton. To us, it seemed like he and his committee hadn't truly considered interviewing Petraeus, whose agency had as important of a role in Benghazi as the State Department did. "Well, we would very much like to talk to General Petraeus," Gowdy said. "As you know, he has been otherwise engaged for the past several months [regarding his recent plea deal]. And I'll be curious to see the details of the agreement that he reached with the government, if it includes a cooperation paragraph, then certainly, we would consider our committee to be worthy of that cooperation. But we have not scheduled his appearance yet. But clearly, he's someone else we need to talk to if we want to understand fully what happened before, during, and after Benghazi." If you are TRULY interested in getting to the bottom of what happened in Benghazi, there are two central figures -- Clinton and Petraeus. So interviewing only one of them puts the GOP in a public-relations box.

Gowdy: "I have no interest ... in having this conversation in 2016"

Also on "Meet," Gowdy was asked what his committee hopes to find that five other investigative committees and groups hadn't yet found on Benghazi. Gowdy's answer: "Well, I can't tell you what's been missed, I can just tell you this. We interviewed nine witnesses so far this year that no other committee of jurisdiction has interviewed. We are looking at documents that no other committee of jurisdiction reviewed. No other committee interviewed Susan Rice. No other committee interviewed Secretary Clinton. No other committee interviewed all of the witnesses that were on the ground in Benghazi. So we've been asked to write the final, definitive accounting. It may or may not corroborate what other committees have done. But frankly, corroborating other people's work is not too much to ask when you have four murdered Americans. So I'm not on a hunt to necessarily debunk or correct what other people have done. Even if you corroborate it, it's worth your time." When asked if his committee's work will be completed BEFORE 2016 - so as not to interfere with the presidential election - he replied, "I have no interest, zero interest, in you and I having this conversation in 2016. But I don't get to fully decide how quickly it's done. I need some cooperation from the people who have access to the witnesses and the information."

Michigan Republicans look to change -- err, rig -- the Electoral College system
Last week, Bloomberg's Dave Weigel reported on GOP legislation in Michigan that would change how the state awards its 16 electoral votes - from winner to take all, to one electoral vote per the winner of each congressional district, plus two votes to statewide winner. Weigel: "Had this system been in place in 2012, Mitt Romney would have lost Michigan by nearly 450,000 of 4.7 million votes, but walked away with nine of the state's 16 electoral votes." As we said when states like Pennsylvania were considering similar changes in 2011, if you're looking to change the rules of the game, you're admitting your party can't win under the current rules.

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First Read's Morning Clips

OBAMA AGENDA: Let's make a deal?

Dateline Brussels, from the Wall Street Journal: "U.S. and Iranian negotiators set to resume talks Monday are hoping to seal a tentative political agreement on Tehran's nuclear program, though Western diplomats said serious negotiations over substance would still be needed in the months ahead. An announcement of a political agreement before an end-of-March deadline, could spur expectations that Iran and the six-nation group is on track for a deal-an advance they hope would buy them fresh time to reach a final, detailed nuclear accord by June 30."

Vladimir Putin has reemerged after a mysterious 10-day absence, and he appears to be healthy.

Benjamin Netanyahu is pleading for support before Tuesday's election, conceding that there's a "real danger" that he could lose his job.

"The plea deal given to retired Gen. David H. Petraeus, which spares him prison time even though he gave military secrets to his mistress, reveals a 'profound double standard' in the way the Obama administration treats people who leak classified information, a lawyer for an imprisoned government contractor wrote in a letter to prosecutors," reports the New York Times.

Police have arrested a 20 year-old man in connection with the shooting of two Ferguson police officers last week.

CONGRESS: GOP chasm in crafting budget

From the New York Times: "The congressional push this week to secure the first Republican budget plan in nearly a decade is revealing a chasm between fiscal hawks determined to maintain strict spending caps and defense hawks who are threatening to derail any budget that does not ensure an increase for the military."
Here's the AP's briefer on what to know about the budget debate.

Majority Leader Mitch McConnell now says that he won't bring Loretta Lynch's nomination to the floor until the Senate finishes the anti-trafficking bill that hit a snag last week.

Sen. Bob Menendez says he has not received any subpoenas from federal authorities.

Roll Call has the latest on the latest spending battle over the "Doc Fix."

OFF TO THE RACES: On Jeb's private email account

BUSH: From over the weekend, in the Washington Post: "Jeb Bush used his private e-mail account as Florida governor to discuss security and military issues such as troop deployments to the Middle East and the protection of nuclear plants, according to a review of publicly released records."

CLINTON: House Republicans are expected to announce a new investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails, per ABC.

Sunday's A1 in the New York Times profiles Robby Mook: "The Clintons anointed Mr. Mook as much for his ease with data and technology as for his calm temperament. They value his rare ability to charm and include the abundant advice-givers without allowing them to become too intrusive. Still, asserting himself among so many influential veterans will not be easy."

Rep. Trey Gowdy told one of us(!) that he has "zero interest" in investigating Benghazi into 2016.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Hillary Clinton is aggressively courting Hispanic staff as she builds her campaign team, including tapping Latina Amanda Renteria as her likely political director.

ICYMI: Maureen Dowd over the weekend, re: Hillary: "An Open Letter to the Leaders of the Clinton Republic of Chappaqua"

CRUZ: From NH1.com: "Ted Cruz says he can "absolutely" compete with the big bucks that Jeb Bush is expected to raise."

FIORINA: She made her pitch to conservative women in Des Moines on Saturday, taking on Hillary Clinton over transparency issues.

HUCKABEE: The New York Times writes that Mike Huckabee is pursuing some "highly unconventional income streams" like endorsing a "dubious diabetes treatment."

PAUL: At SXSW, Rand Paul talked tech and courting the "leave-me-alone-coalition."

RUBIO: From POLITICO, this could be problematic: "The brick-fronted tract house with a satellite dish and a yellow fire hydrant in front looks like many middle-class homes in Florida's capital, except for the two names on the deed. Marco Rubio: U.S. senator and would-be presidential candidate. David Rivera: Scandal-plagued former congressman under investigation in a federal campaign-finance probe."
WALKER: Scott Walker says his sons will take a semester off from college to campaign for him.

PROGRAMMING NOTES.

*** Monday's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" line-up: NBC's Andrea Mitchell interviews Education Secretary Arne Duncan, the Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg, the Huffington Post's Sam Stein, the Washington Post's Jonathan Capehart, NBC's Ayman Mohyeldin, Stephanie Gosk, Kelly Cobiella, Ron Mott and Sarah Dallof.

Mullen: Iran 'More Difficult Challenge' than ISIS

A former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who served in both the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations said Sunday that Iran poses "a much more difficult challenge" than the threat posed by the terrorist group ISIS.

Iran is an "incredibly complex country that we don't understand very well. We've had no relations with them for 35 years," Retired Adm. Michael Mullen said on NBC's "Meet the Press."
Mullen said the United States will have to accept the role Iranian militias play in the fight against ISIS in northern Iraq. While the number one priority is to defeat ISIS, Mullen said it's worth remembering that the Iranian regime committed acts of terrorism, which led to the war in Iraq.

"Working together right now in a constructive way to eliminate the number one threat in Iraq, I don't think that opens the door for accepting who they are and what they've done in the past," Mullen said. "And once we're beyond ISIS, I think that the relationship we have with Iran, from the standpoint of what they've done for so long, will be based on the elimination of those kinds of terrorist activities that are evident throughout the region."

Sen. Roger Wicker, the head of the Republican Party's fundraising arm in the Senate, said he does not have confidence that Iran will abide by a potential agreement. Wicker was one of 47 senators to sign an open letter to Iranian leaders this week.
"They are the chief exporter of terrorism around in that region," the Mississippi Republican told Chuck Todd in a subsequent interview.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State John Kerry is traveling to Switzerland this weekend to continue the Iranian nuclear talks with officials from Iran, the U.K., France, China, Germany and Russia. Kerry and other White House officials have denounced calls from Capitol Hill for oversight of the talks. White House Chief of Staff Denis McDonough sent a letter to Republican Sen. Bob Corker Saturday asking him not to go forward with his legislation requiring congressional oversight of a potential dealuntil at least June.

"There's no reason to wait till June on our bill. All our bill does is sets up the process under which Congress reviews a deal," Virginia Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, a co-sponsor of the Corker bill, said. "If the White House gives sanctions relief under executive sanctions, they have complete authority to do that without Congress. If they want to give international sanctions relief and can convince partners to do that, they can do that without Congress. Only when they touch the congressional sanctions must Congress get involved."

Wicker followed up on Kaine's comments.

"What they said this morning in the new letter is not only if we get a preliminary deal must Congress not pass legislation, but they're telling Tim Kaine and Bob Corker, the people that have negotiated with six Republicans and six Democrats, 'You can't pass legislation until I, the president, get a final deal negotiated in June. And only then will a coequal branch of the United States government be allowed to weigh in,'" he said. "I would think that Senator Kaine would be frustrated by that."

-- Daniel Cooney

Adm. Mullen: Iranian Regime Has Committed Terrorist Acts

The former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff says that while the number one priority is to defeat ISIS, we should not lose sight that Iran has committed terrorist acts.

April Ryan on the Presidency in Black and White

American Urban Radio Networks White House Correspondent April Ryan discusses race relations and the presidency in her new book, "The Presidency in Black and White: My Up-Close View of Three Presidents and Race in America."